Posts Tagged ‘market bottom’

THE #1 REASON WHY THE SECULAR BEAR ISN’T OVER YET

Unless this time the greatest "contrarian long-term secular indicator of all time" no longer applies, this bear market is not finished.  Although if you’re short, you’re ability to trade it may be. – Ilene

THE #1 REASON WHY THE SECULAR BEAR ISN’T OVER YET

bear market, secular bear marketCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The end of investment fads tend to coincide with sharp changes in investor sentiment and long-term secular moves.  No one has represented the excessively bullish & leveraged market of the 80’s, 90’s and 00’s more than Jim Cramer.  He worked at the most highly leveraged hedge fund on Wall Street – Goldman Sachs.  He took a dotcom firm public and promptly lost 95%+ for his shareholders at the peak of the market in 1999.  He ran a super beta tech hedge fund in the leverage driven 80’s & 90’s (which I guarantee you underperformed the Nasdaq 100 on a risk adjusted basis), and he now runs the bullish of all TV bullish shows – “Mad Money”.  The show basically begs small investors to be reckless with their hard earned cash.  It borders on financial negligence in my opinion, but that’s for another discussion.  No one has been a better icon of the excess of the 80’s and 90’s than Cramer himself.

Cramer is a powerful man.  The mere mention of a stock can send shares soaring.  (If investors are truly upset about the stock manipulation that Goldman Sachs and high frequency traders are accused of they should be extremely alarmed about Cramer’s show – no single person has manipulated more stock prices in the history of the stock market).   When this phenomenon began several years ago I was dumbfounded.  I asked myself: “who would buy these stocks in the after hours market at such a steep premium?”  Late last year the trend had waned.  The stocks Cramer recommended didn’t soar.  Cramer’s power had declined.  After all, he had called the bottom to the bear market on 3 separate occasions (all wrong), had recommended Bear Stearns just weeks before they went under, recommended Wachovia just days before they went under, top ticked the banks in a bet with Eric Bolling in what has to go down as one of the worst market calls of all time and even proclaimed in late September 2008 that “the bounce means the crash can’t happen”.   His track record was…
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Zero Hedge

Greenlight: "In Q4, Our Longs Went Up Less Than The Market And Our Shorts Went Up More"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge. View original post here.

2019 was a very strange year for the market, one in which stocks were up almost 30% despite no earnings growth and only multiple expansion, and yet not a single popular strategy worked. As a result, it was also an extremely painful year for hedge funds who were up for the year, but once again failed to catch up to the risk-free benchmark, the S&P500, and in fact, this was the 10th consecutive year in which active management underperformed the cheapest possible market investment, the S&P500 itself (and explains why there was a record-matching 8 consecutive months of hedge fund outflows in ...



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Phil's Favorites

The Next Trillion Dollar Stocks: What Are Your Thoughts?

 

The Next Trillion Dollar Stocks: What Are Your Thoughts?

Courtesy of 

In this edition of What Are Your Thoughts, Michael Batnick and Josh Brown discuss:

* Gold vs Bitcoin, let the trolling begin!
* Google joins the Trillion Dollar Club, who’s next?
* Can Bill Simmons sell The Ringer podcast network for $200 million?
* Actively managed US stock mutual funds had a great year in 2019, but most still couldn’t catch the S&P 500. So what?
* Will direct indexing disrupt the ETF business?
* Warren Buffett’s preferred metric to gauge how exp...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Hang Seng Index Double Topping At 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Hang Seng Index be “Double Topping” at its 2007 highs? Possible, yet not proven!

The Hang Seng Index attempted to break above its 2007 highs at (1), only to see a key reversal pattern take place the following month.

After the reversal pattern, the index has created a series of lower highs, just below falling resistance.

So far this month, the index is attempting to break above falling resistance, where it could be created a bearish reversal monthly pattern at (2).

What would it take to prove that a double top was i...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For January 21, 2020

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.29 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion.
  • TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.09 per share on revenue of $839.96 million.
  • Signature Bank (NASDAQ: ...


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The Technical Traders

Q4 Earnings Setup The Rally To The Peak

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team believes the current Q4-2019 earnings season and expectations are prompting a “Rally To A Peak”.  We’ve been warning our followers and clients that we believe the US Stock Market has rallied to levels that constitute a “near peak enthusiasm” related to historical price volatility. 

As you’ll see from these charts, below, we are not dismissing this current upside rally and the potential that it could last for many weeks or months longer – we’re just warning our followers and clients that we believe a very volatile period or price rotation is setting up within the next 10 to 25+ days as prices reach the historical upper boundary. ...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Chart School

SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.

The Kitchin Cycle is still working.

We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 

Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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