Posts Tagged ‘market outlook’

Monday Morosity – “Hard Times Ahead” says Rajoy

Hard times ahead!

Mariano Rajoy won the biggest majority in a Spanish election in almost 30 years, and told Spaniards to brace for hard times as the nation fights to avoid being overwhelmed by the debt crisis. Bonds continued to drop.  Rajoy’s People’s Party swept the ruling Socialists from power after eight years, winning 186 of the 350 seats in Parliament, compared with 110 for the Socialists’ candidate Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba.

Hard times lie ahead,” Rajoy, 56, told supporters outside the PP’s headquarters in Madrid, giving no new details of his plans. “We are going to govern in the most delicate situation Spain has faced in 30 years.”

Spanish borrowing costs continued rising toward euro-era records (6.6% this morning) even as the PP won a mandate to slash the budget deficit, overhaul the stagnant economy and reduce the 23 percent jobless rate.  Rajoy, who hasn’t given details of his proposals, won’t take over for a month, prompting him to say on Nov 18th he hoped Spain wouldn’t need a bailout before he’s sworn in.  Miguel Arias Canete, head of the PP’s electoral committee and a former minister, said today markets need to give the party time, as ministers won’t be appointed until Dec. 21 and Spanish law doesn’t allow Parliament to resume any sooner than Dec. 13.

So NO QUICK FIX IN SPAIN IS POSSIBLE – let’s face that fact now so we’re not endlessly surprised by it as the rumor-mongers can now have a field day attacking the lame-duck outgoing Government ahead of the transition.  Meanwhile, our own do-nothing Congress looks to be heading towards certain disaster as we have what appears to be a TOTAL FAILURE of the US Deficit Reduction Committee to do anything to actually reduce our deficit.  

Now I don’t want to point fingers (cough, Republicans, cough, cough) ahead of our National Holiday that celebrates unity and goodwill and crap like that.  Let’s just say "they" couldn’t agree, so now it’s going to be Hard Times for America as we, in theory, will kick in $1.2Tn of automatic cuts including (gasp!) over 5% of our nation’s Trillion-Dollar annual Defense budget.  Oh, not until 2013, of course because our Government doesn’t really have the balls to cut anything under any circumstances.  

EXCEPT, of course, aid to the poor.  THAT they can cut and cut and cut and cut.  Payroll tax cuts –…
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GURU OUTLOOK: PAOLO PELLEGRINI

GURU OUTLOOK: PAOLO PELLEGRINI

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

This week’s Guru Outlook brings you Paolo Pellegrini.  Although he is not the most well known of investment gurus Pellegrini has built quite a name for himself in recent years.  Before founding his own hedge fund PSQR (a play on PP Squared) Pellegrini was John Paulson’s right hand man at Paulson and Co (see Paulson’s guru outlook here & most recent strategy comments here).  Of course, Paulson and Co. made waves during the sub-prime crisis when they made billions shorting the market during the crisis.  Pellegrini was instrumental in devising the strategy.  Like Paulson, however, Pellegrini wasn’t a one trick, short the market, pony.  In 2009 he crushed the market with a 61.6% return in his fund after he made big bets on a rising oil market and a tanking treasury market.

So where does Pellegrini see the market going now?  In a recent letter to shareholders he said:

“the structural problems that precipitated the Great Recession around the globe remain unresolved”

He says we are essentially papering over the problems with more debt.  We are simply adding more debt to a debt-laden world while China adds more exports to a saturated market.  He says the problems in Europe are a harbinger of these continuing issues.   Thus far the massive stimulus has been successful in jumpstarting the global economy, but is nothing more than a temporary respite from the longer-term structural problems that remain.

Pellegrini’s favorite trades in 2010 are the following four:

  • Short US fixed income
  • Short US equities
  • Short US dollar
  • Long commodities

The short trade on fixed income is a reflection of the likelihood for higher yields as investors grow increasingly fearful of the U.S. as a steward of its debt.  Pellegrini believes demand for treasuries will decrease in the coming years.

In terms of equities Pellegrini says valuations are becoming stretched as organic growth fails to match expectations. He also believes higher taxes could ultimately be a net negative for equities.

Pellegrini is short the dollar based on the expectation of more stimulus.  He predicts that policymakers will come back to the taxpayer asking for another handout as they explain their first stimulus plan was not a failure, but simply too small.  He says the dollar will “plunge” if this occurs.

The one sector of the market Pellegrini likes is commodities.  He says they…
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Karl Denninger’s 2010 Outlook

Interview with Karl Denninger, courtesy of Miss Trade – Ilene

Karl Denninger’s 2010 Outlook

Karl Denninger recently made his annual Where Are We, Where We’re Heading Post. We invited him on MissTrade TV to give us his input on the year ahead.

 


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Steve Meyers: Market Outlook and Analysis for 2010

Steve Meyers: Market Outlook and Analysis for 2010

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain


 


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PRUDENTIAL’S 2010 MARKET OUTLOOK

PRUDENTIAL’S 2010 MARKET OUTLOOK

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Businessman gazing into crystal ball

Strategists at Prudential are among the most bullish on Wall Street (for more very bullish outlooks please see RBC’s outlook, Merrill’s outlook & JP Morgan’s outlook).   They see further government stimulus, low interest rates and the inventory rebuild driving the S&P up to 1,350 by the end of 2010 for a full 23% rally from current prices.

They believe inflation is likely to remain low as slack in the economy, high unemployment and low capacity utilization keep prices under wraps.

They remain very bullish on equity markets for 5 primary reasons:

1) GDP rebound sustaining in Q4 and into 2010, and growth expectations being revised higher.

2) Q3 earnings surprising on the upside outlook and earnings recovering further in Q4 and 2010 with solid GDP growth, widening margins and improved pricing power.

3) Inflation moving from disinflation to low inflation with excess capacity and high unemployment.

4) Global central banks holding interest rates at crisis lows levels, long-term rates remaining low, and plenty of liquidity.

5) Continued stabilization in financial market conditions and risk appetite improving further.

How to play it?  They want to be overweight stocks and underweight bonds.  More specifically, they prefer emerging market and UK equities with a modest overweight in the Eurozone while being underweight Japan and the U.S.

In terms of sectors they prefer energy, info. tech, and materials with a modest overweight in financials and industrials.  They are neutral consumer discretionary with modest underweights in consumers staples and healthcare.  They underweight utilities and telecomm.

In the bond market they like emerging markets and Japanese debt with a modest overweight in UK debt.  They are neutral on the Eurozone and underweight US debt.

The tend is much the same in terms of forex.  They like the Euro and emerging market currencies, remain neutral on sterling & Yen with an underweight on the dollar.

Source: Prudential

 


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Zero Hedge

Over 1 Million Californians May Be Affected By Imminent Fire-Prevention Blackout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Californians will once again get to 'enjoy' a pre-industrial lifestyle this week as state utilities gear up for another round of intentional blackouts aimed at reducing the risk of fires, according to Bloomberg, while PG&E claims that over to 1 million residents may be impacted by the shutoffs. 

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Phil's Favorites

Oil companies are thinking about a low-carbon future, but aren't making big investments in it yet

 

Oil companies are thinking about a low-carbon future, but aren't making big investments in it yet

Oil pump jacks in Williston, N.D. AP Photo/Eric Gay

Courtesy of Lewis Fulton, University of California, Davis and Daniel Sperling, University of California, Davis

The global oil industry stands at a crossroads. Corporate leaders are weighing how closely to stay wedded to their legacy business ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Needs This Key Indicator To Experience A Breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is a leading Tech sector about to send the broad market a key message? In our opinion, yes!

This chart looks at the Semiconductor/S&P ratio over the past couple of years.

When the ratio peaked around March of last year at (1), numerous indices in the states (NYSE, Mid-Caps, Small Caps) and around the world (EEM & EFA) started to create a series of lower highs.

The SMH/SPY ratio is again testing the highs of early 2018 at (2).

Many indices in the states and around the world, need this ratio to continue to move higher/experience if the...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Down; Crude Oil Falls 1%

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. The FHFA house price index for August will be released at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 27 points to 26,736 while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures traded fell 2.75 points to 2,991.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index fell 5.25 points to 7,853.50.

...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchain voting is vulnerable to hackers, software glitches and bad ID photos - among other problems

 

Blockchain voting is vulnerable to hackers, software glitches and bad ID photos – among other problems

How secure is online voting with blockchain technology? WhiteDragon/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Nir Kshetri, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

A developing technology called “blockchain” has gotten attention from election officials, startups and even Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang as a ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Repo Market Bank Regulations and the Slings And Arrows of Outrageous Leverage

 

Repo Market Bank Regulations and the Slings And Arrows of Outrageous Leverage

Courtesy of 

Are repo market regulations really behind the money market’s problems? That’s what bankers and their hired mouthpieces are saying.

So I need to get a few things off my chest about this notion that post financial crash Dodd-Frank bank regulations are the cause of the current repo market problems.

It’s total bullsh*t. The bankers and their superleveraged hed...



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The Technical Traders

Daily Market Forecast and Trading Patterns

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

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Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold stocks are swinging back forth between the range, and a break out swing higher is due. Gold stocks are holding a near perfect Wyckoff accumulation pattern. All should get ready to play this sector. Yet we must recognize that gold stocks are a one of the most crazy rides at the stock market fair, so play very carefully.

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GDX PnF chart from within the video

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Important channels around the HUI.
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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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