Posts Tagged ‘market outlook’

Monday Morosity – “Hard Times Ahead” says Rajoy

Hard times ahead!

Mariano Rajoy won the biggest majority in a Spanish election in almost 30 years, and told Spaniards to brace for hard times as the nation fights to avoid being overwhelmed by the debt crisis. Bonds continued to drop.  Rajoy’s People’s Party swept the ruling Socialists from power after eight years, winning 186 of the 350 seats in Parliament, compared with 110 for the Socialists’ candidate Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba.

Hard times lie ahead,” Rajoy, 56, told supporters outside the PP’s headquarters in Madrid, giving no new details of his plans. “We are going to govern in the most delicate situation Spain has faced in 30 years.”

Spanish borrowing costs continued rising toward euro-era records (6.6% this morning) even as the PP won a mandate to slash the budget deficit, overhaul the stagnant economy and reduce the 23 percent jobless rate.  Rajoy, who hasn’t given details of his proposals, won’t take over for a month, prompting him to say on Nov 18th he hoped Spain wouldn’t need a bailout before he’s sworn in.  Miguel Arias Canete, head of the PP’s electoral committee and a former minister, said today markets need to give the party time, as ministers won’t be appointed until Dec. 21 and Spanish law doesn’t allow Parliament to resume any sooner than Dec. 13.

So NO QUICK FIX IN SPAIN IS POSSIBLE – let’s face that fact now so we’re not endlessly surprised by it as the rumor-mongers can now have a field day attacking the lame-duck outgoing Government ahead of the transition.  Meanwhile, our own do-nothing Congress looks to be heading towards certain disaster as we have what appears to be a TOTAL FAILURE of the US Deficit Reduction Committee to do anything to actually reduce our deficit.  

Now I don’t want to point fingers (cough, Republicans, cough, cough) ahead of our National Holiday that celebrates unity and goodwill and crap like that.  Let’s just say "they" couldn’t agree, so now it’s going to be Hard Times for America as we, in theory, will kick in $1.2Tn of automatic cuts including (gasp!) over 5% of our nation’s Trillion-Dollar annual Defense budget.  Oh, not until 2013, of course because our Government doesn’t really have the balls to cut anything under any circumstances.  

EXCEPT, of course, aid to the poor.  THAT they can cut and cut and cut and cut.  Payroll tax cuts –…
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GURU OUTLOOK: PAOLO PELLEGRINI

GURU OUTLOOK: PAOLO PELLEGRINI

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

This week’s Guru Outlook brings you Paolo Pellegrini.  Although he is not the most well known of investment gurus Pellegrini has built quite a name for himself in recent years.  Before founding his own hedge fund PSQR (a play on PP Squared) Pellegrini was John Paulson’s right hand man at Paulson and Co (see Paulson’s guru outlook here & most recent strategy comments here).  Of course, Paulson and Co. made waves during the sub-prime crisis when they made billions shorting the market during the crisis.  Pellegrini was instrumental in devising the strategy.  Like Paulson, however, Pellegrini wasn’t a one trick, short the market, pony.  In 2009 he crushed the market with a 61.6% return in his fund after he made big bets on a rising oil market and a tanking treasury market.

So where does Pellegrini see the market going now?  In a recent letter to shareholders he said:

“the structural problems that precipitated the Great Recession around the globe remain unresolved”

He says we are essentially papering over the problems with more debt.  We are simply adding more debt to a debt-laden world while China adds more exports to a saturated market.  He says the problems in Europe are a harbinger of these continuing issues.   Thus far the massive stimulus has been successful in jumpstarting the global economy, but is nothing more than a temporary respite from the longer-term structural problems that remain.

Pellegrini’s favorite trades in 2010 are the following four:

  • Short US fixed income
  • Short US equities
  • Short US dollar
  • Long commodities

The short trade on fixed income is a reflection of the likelihood for higher yields as investors grow increasingly fearful of the U.S. as a steward of its debt.  Pellegrini believes demand for treasuries will decrease in the coming years.

In terms of equities Pellegrini says valuations are becoming stretched as organic growth fails to match expectations. He also believes higher taxes could ultimately be a net negative for equities.

Pellegrini is short the dollar based on the expectation of more stimulus.  He predicts that policymakers will come back to the taxpayer asking for another handout as they explain their first stimulus plan was not a failure, but simply too small.  He says the dollar will “plunge” if this occurs.

The one sector of the market Pellegrini likes is commodities.  He says they…
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Karl Denninger’s 2010 Outlook

Interview with Karl Denninger, courtesy of Miss Trade – Ilene

Karl Denninger’s 2010 Outlook

Karl Denninger recently made his annual Where Are We, Where We’re Heading Post. We invited him on MissTrade TV to give us his input on the year ahead.

 


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Steve Meyers: Market Outlook and Analysis for 2010

Steve Meyers: Market Outlook and Analysis for 2010

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain


 


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PRUDENTIAL’S 2010 MARKET OUTLOOK

PRUDENTIAL’S 2010 MARKET OUTLOOK

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Businessman gazing into crystal ball

Strategists at Prudential are among the most bullish on Wall Street (for more very bullish outlooks please see RBC’s outlook, Merrill’s outlook & JP Morgan’s outlook).   They see further government stimulus, low interest rates and the inventory rebuild driving the S&P up to 1,350 by the end of 2010 for a full 23% rally from current prices.

They believe inflation is likely to remain low as slack in the economy, high unemployment and low capacity utilization keep prices under wraps.

They remain very bullish on equity markets for 5 primary reasons:

1) GDP rebound sustaining in Q4 and into 2010, and growth expectations being revised higher.

2) Q3 earnings surprising on the upside outlook and earnings recovering further in Q4 and 2010 with solid GDP growth, widening margins and improved pricing power.

3) Inflation moving from disinflation to low inflation with excess capacity and high unemployment.

4) Global central banks holding interest rates at crisis lows levels, long-term rates remaining low, and plenty of liquidity.

5) Continued stabilization in financial market conditions and risk appetite improving further.

How to play it?  They want to be overweight stocks and underweight bonds.  More specifically, they prefer emerging market and UK equities with a modest overweight in the Eurozone while being underweight Japan and the U.S.

In terms of sectors they prefer energy, info. tech, and materials with a modest overweight in financials and industrials.  They are neutral consumer discretionary with modest underweights in consumers staples and healthcare.  They underweight utilities and telecomm.

In the bond market they like emerging markets and Japanese debt with a modest overweight in UK debt.  They are neutral on the Eurozone and underweight US debt.

The tend is much the same in terms of forex.  They like the Euro and emerging market currencies, remain neutral on sterling & Yen with an underweight on the dollar.

Source: Prudential

 


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Zero Hedge

Trade-Deal Rumorgasm Sparks Stock Meltup To Record Highs, Bond Bloodbath

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It's a deal... again...

Oct 11: NEWS "Trump says the US has come to a substantial phase one deal with China"

Dec 12: RUMOR *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO A BIG DEAL WITH CHINA

Dec 12: RUMOR *U.S. NEGOTIATORS OFFER TO CANCEL NEW DEC. 15 CHINA TARIFFS: DJ

Dec 12: NEWS/RUMOR "Trump says he and China reached a 'phase one' trade deal in principle"

And that was good enough for new record highs for stocks...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar - 12-11-19

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

Major Topics:

00:02:48 Checking on the Markets
00:03:58 Checking on the Portfolios
00:13:12 5 Trade Ideas to Make $25,000 in 5 months
00:21:02 Top Trades
00:22:50 Tanger Factory
00:37:49 3 New Trades
00:38:38 "Future is Now Portfolio"
00:58:22 FOMC Meeting
01:05:03 CSCO
01:09:24 FTR
01:17:20 LB
01:19:14 CSCO Trade Ideas
01:25:28 FOMC Statement
01:30:59 Summary
01:39:00 AMZN

...



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Insider Scoop

The Daily Biotech Pulse: European Nod For Amgen, miRagen Overhauls Clinical Pipeline, Tonix Snags Patent Win

Courtesy of Benzinga

Here's a roundup of top developments in the biotech space over the last 24 hours.

Scaling The Peaks

(Biotech stocks hitting 52-week highs on Dec. 11)

  • Acceleron Pharma Inc (NASDAQ: XLRN)
  • Aimmune Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: AIMT)
  • Aprea The...


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Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Freeport McMoRan (FCX) Making A Run For the "Gold"?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Mining company Freeport McMoRan NYSE: FCX is enjoying the tailwind from a strong year for gold and silver prices. And although Copper prices are down, Copper has been turning up lately.

This has helped Freeport’s stock price recover in 2019 and has FCX testing a key breakout level.

Below is a “weekly” chart of Freeport McMoRan (FCX). The shaded channel outlined by each (1) highlights the longer-term downtrend that FCX has been stuck in.

But this could change on a dime, especially if FCX can breakout above (2). This area represents its re...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 
Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices. The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).




 

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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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