Posts Tagged ‘mass hysteria’

The Great Reflation Experiment

The Great Reflation Experiment

reflationCourtesy of John Mauldin

The Great Reflation Experiment
The Debt Super Cycle
Some Background on US Inflation
Implications for Investors

The question we have been focused on for some time now is whether we end up with inflation, or deflation, and what that endgame looks like. It is one of the most important questions an investor must ask today, and getting the answer right is critical. This week, we have a guest writer who takes on the topic of the great experiment the Fed is now waging, which he calls The Great Reflation Experiment.

One of my favorite sources of information for decades has been and remains the Bank Credit Analyst. It has a long and storied reputation. One of their enduring themes has been the debt super cycle. Investors who have paid attention to it have been served well. I am taking a little R&R this weekend, but I have arranged for my friend Tony Boeckh to stand in for me. Tony was chairman, chief executive, and editor-in-chief of Montreal-based BCA Research, publisher of the highly regarded Bank Credit Analyst up until he retired in 2002. He still likes to write from time to time, and we are lucky enough to have him give us his views on where we are in the economic cycles. Gentle reader, we are all graced to learn from one of the great economists and analysts of our times. Pay attention. Central bankers do. You can read his extensive bio at www.boeckhinvestmentletter.com and I will tell you how to get his letter free of charge at the end of this letter. And, he told me to mention that his son Rob is now helping him write, so there is a double byline here. Now, let’s just jump in.

By Tony Boeckh and Rob Boeckh

The Crash of 2008/9 should be seen as yet another consequence of long-term, persistent US inflationary policies. Inflation doesn’t stand still. It tends to establish a self-reinforcing cycle that accelerates until the excesses in money and credit become so extreme that a correction is triggered. The bigger the inflation, the bigger the correction. Once a dependency on credit expansion is well established, correcting the underlying imbalances becomes extremely difficult. Reflation has occurred after each major correction, and this one is proving no exception. Return…
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Phil's Favorites

A summer of protest, unemployment and presidential politics - welcome to 1932

 

A summer of protest, unemployment and presidential politics – welcome to 1932

The Bonus Army stages a demonstration at the empty Capitol on July 2, 1932. Underwood and Underwood, photographers; Library of Congress

Courtesy of James N. Gregory, University of Washington

An election looms. An unpopular president wrestles with historic unemployment rates. Demonstrations erupt in hundreds of locations. The president deploys Army units to suppress peaceful protests in the nation’s capital. And most of all he worries about an affable Democratic candidate who is running against him without saying much about ...



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Zero Hedge

US Manufacturing Survey Jumps By Record In June (In Contraction & Expansion)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Despite the record surge in the US Macro Surprise Index, May's rebound in 'soft' survey data was much more mixed than many prefer to cherry-pick (PMI rebound much more dramatic than ISM), but flash PMIs suggest June saw the re-opening euphoria is set to accelerate...

  • ISM Manufacturing in Expansion - 52.6 vs 49.8 expectations and 43.1 prior - best since April 2019

  • PMI Manufacturing in Contraction - 49.8 vs 49.6 expectations and 39.8 prior - ...



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ValueWalk

FedEx Corp.: Fundamentals Support the Price Increase

By F.A.S.T. Graphs. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Introduction

After reporting better than 4th quarter results on Tuesday, the stock price of FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) has been on a tear. With this article, I plan to demonstrate that the fundamentals support the current price rise. Moreover, the fundamentals also suggest that it is not too late to take a long-term position in this leading air freight and logistics company.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Yesterday, FedEx reported a surge in quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.53 per share compared to expectations of $1.52 per s...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold / Dollar Ratio Sending Bullish Message To Gold Bugs!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been a good year for gold bugs!

Gold has outperformed several asset classes as volatility and general economic uncertainty have come back to the forefront.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of Gold to the U.S. Dollar on a “monthly” basis. Gold bulls want to see this ratio trending higher… and it is.

In fact, the rise has taken the Gold ratio to an important juncture. It is working on a dual breakout at point (2).

Thus far, price is well above horizontal resistance marked by (1), and just above trend resistance at (2). Should the breakout hold, it would be historically bullish for Gold (and precious metals). Stay tuned!

This ar...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The US isn't in a second wave of coronavirus - the first wave never ended

 

The US isn't in a second wave of coronavirus – the first wave never ended

The U.S. as a whole is facing a huge surge in coronavirus cases, but the differences between states like New York and Florida are striking. Kena Betancur/1207979953 via Getty Images

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

After sustained declines in the number of COVID-19 cases over recent months, restrictions are starting to ...



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The Technical Traders

Long-Term Consumer Discretionary Winners

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I was live on TD Ameritrade TV talking about consumer discretionary, staples, and utility sectors. Explained is a unique crossover on how some discretionary stocks are also becoming a consumer staple.

Get My ETF Trade Signals, Entry, Targets, and Stop Levels – CLICK HERE ...

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Chart School

US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?


Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?


The question is always what will the future price action look like ?


This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.



There are two theories: ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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