EPA Study: Autism Boom Began in 1988, Environmental Factors Are Assumed
by ilene - April 26th, 2010 12:45 am
EPA Study: Autism Boom Began in 1988, Environmental Factors Are Assumed
Courtesy of David Kirby at The Huffington Post
If it seems like most of the people you know with autism are 22 or younger, that’s because most people diagnosed with autism were born after 1987. A recent US EPA study has found a distinct "changepoint" year – or spike – in autism in California and elsewhere and concludes that it would be "prudent to assume that at least some portion of this increase is real and results from environmental factors."
"In the Danish, California, and worldwide data sets, we found that an increase in autism disorder cumulative incidence began about (the birth cohort years) 1988-1989," wrote the authors Michael E. Mc Donald and John F. Paul, of the EPA’s National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory.
"Although the debate about the nature of increasing autism continues," they added, "the potential for this increase to be real and involve exogenous (external) environmental stressors exists."
But it was the distinct timing in the increase of autism – the birth of an epidemic, as many believe – that was most notable, and which "may help in screening for potential candidate environmental stressors."
"The calculated year was determined to be significant," the EPA scientists said. The rate of increase before 1988 "was significantly different" than the rate after that year (the "postchangepoint," in epidemiology parlance). In California, the rate spiked from 5.7-per-10,000 before the changepoint, to 20.8-per 10,000 in its wake, and the worldwide dataset showed a similar jump (from 6.0 to 24.2). In Denmark, the rise was even more dramatic, though total incidence was only a fraction of that in the US: from 0.6 to 6.6.
(A study in Japan from 1988-1996 showed continuously increasing autism rates, but no calculable changepoint year – please see the full report for a discussion on study limitations).
So why would rates more than triple in California kids born before and after 1988? Is…
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Alternative View: Housing Prices Have Fallen Significantly Towards the Trend
by ilene - November 18th, 2009 9:26 pm
Update by Jesse at the Cafe regarding housing prices. Glad to see I’m not the only person who struggled with the flu vaccine dilemma. To avoid the mercury, there’s FluMist, with the added attraction of delivering the (attenuated) virus via the natural route, through the respiratory system, rather than injected directly into the blood. It’s not recommended for those with asthma, however. Currently, the swine flu vaccine is not available in my city, but I did manage to track down the seasonal vaccine for a couple loved ones. The seasonal flu vaccine appears to afford some protection against swine flu. Nothing available for me, however, making my indecision rather besides the point for the time being.
Best wishes for a speedy recovery with no notable residual brain damage, Jesse. - Ilene
Alternative View: Housing Prices Have Fallen Significantly Towards the Trend
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
Here is the graph associated with a view of the deflating housing bubble that shows we have appreciably fallen, further than the 25% in the blog entry from yesterday.
For the details on this view read here.
It appears that both sets of numbers, the ones above and the ones from yesterday, have been adjusted somewhat.
The numbers from yesterday are Indexed to 1980 = 100, and are therefore a percentage of increase.
The numbers above are nominal prices, and then adjusted for inflation using some governmental measure presumably.
One appears to be based on median prices, and the other on total transactions.
I have not yet reconciled the two views, as I am rather tired and ‘under the weather,’ compliments of the children’s propensity to bring home their sniffles and sneezes at this time of year, the head colds that seem to linger endlessly, despite the repeated application of vitamins, chicken soup, sudafed, ibuprofen, and the occasional sip of Beaujolais Noveau. But for today at least I am, like Mr. Buffett is to the economic recovery, ‘all in.’
And yes, I did finally break down and listen to the spouse, obtaining a swine flu vaccination. Perhaps the mental slowness is merely due to my mercuy addled brain. Perhaps it will help me think like a Fed banker and figure out their gameplan. lol.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site