Posts Tagged ‘Mr. Buffett’

A few thoughts on the Burlington acquisition

A few thoughts on the Burlington acquisition

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson at Contrarian Edge

warren buffettI have tremendous respect for Mr. Buffett.  But every word that comes out of his mouth should not be looked upon as prophecy, or the gospel truth.  I get a feeling that Buffett has been canonized into a value investor saint  – investors and the media worship the ground he walks on and the air he breathes.  The media are unable to get any critical quotes from his investors, and nobody wants to be caught disagreeing with the Oracle of Omaha – after all he’s been right more often than wrong – and so we only get positive puff pieces.  On the rare occasion when Berkshire Hathaway stock declines more than the market, you see an article asserting that “Buffett has lost his magic touch,” but these articles are usually followed by stellar performance by Berkshire.  Though Buffett deserves admiration – he is brilliant and likable and he has achieved incredible returns for his investors over the last half-century – he should not be canonized, and not everything he does or says is the ultimate truth.  

Most investors agree with Buffett’s criticism of Kraft’s decision to buy a fairly valued (or overvalued) Cadbury at 22 times earnings (over the past 15 years, its average price-to-earnings ratio has been 21), using Kraft’s undervalued stock.  Cadbury runs a global, noncyclical confectionary business that, if properly managed, should have a very high return on capital.  Buffett, a shareholder of Kraft, was very public about his dismay – he said he felt poorer when Cadbury accepted Kraft’s increased offer.  

 But though many agree with Mr. Buffett’s assessment of the Kraft/Cadbury deal, investors and media are completely ignoring Berkshire’s own, $30-billion-plus acquisition of a very cyclical, capital-intensive, not terrifically high-return-on-capital business – Burlington Northern.  A railroad for which Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire will lay out 18 times earnings (over last 15 years its average P/E was 15); and to make it even worse, part of the deal will be financed by issuing what Buffett recently called “cheap” Berkshire stock.  Burlington stock is not cheap, it is fairly priced at best, and likely overpriced.  Also, Buffett owning Burlington Northern will not make the railroad business any more valuable.  There is little value to be unlocked in this business, and Buffett will practice his usual hands-off approach. 

Though Mr.…
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Janet Tavakoli: Risk of deflationary collapse greater now than in 2007

Janet Tavakoli: Risk of deflationary collapse greater now than in 2007

Janet TavakoliCourtesy of Mish

Janet Tavakoli is On The Edge With Max Keiser. Tavakoli says the Risk of deflationary collapse greater now than in 2007.

We’ve just interviewed Janet Tavakoli for our first episode of The Keiser Report. If you don’t know her, you should. She wrote a fantastic book, Dear Mr. Buffett. Max and I are on our second read of it. You really must get this book if you want to understand derivatives from one of the foremost experts on it who writes in plain English about how these financial tools became instruments for widespread fraud that then led to financial crisis. She also gives loads of positive advice and insight.

Here is a summary she provided for MaxKeiser.com on where she thinks we are today two years since the crisis began:

"Regarding the outlook, my analysis is grim. I am not a doomsayer, I follow the cash, and so far, I’ve been correct, and the government has been wrong. Here’s the situation. We are at greater risk of a total meltdown due to a deflationary collapse than we were in 2007. After the greatest Ponzi scheme in the history of the capital markets, we’ve seen history’s greatest fiscal and monetary expansion, but it hasn’t worked. Debt levels of consumers and business exceed the capacity to repay."

Travakoli makes six points about deflation. I concur with all of them. Here are three of them.

  • Our fundamental financial and economic problems, i.e. overleveraging, lack of transparency, have not been solved.
  • Since 2008, capacity utilization has plummeted; businesses have no pricing power; U.S. lost 6.7 million jobs but numbers are underreported; personal income tax receipts are down 21%; corporate tax receipts are down 58%; U.S. deficit will exceed $1.8 trillion; govt. spending is now 185% of tax receipts; 13% of mortgages are seriously delinquent and/or in foreclosure; huge decrease in personal net worth; 15 million mortgages exceed the home value. We’re on a massive debt spending spree.
  • Income on all levels is not sufficient to make debt payments.

Inquiring minds will certainly want to play the videos where she also addresses the role of derivatives.

Janet Tavakoli Part 1 

Janet Tavakoli Part 2

By the way, the reason we are worse off than in 2007 is…
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Phil's Favorites

What if it Doesn't End Badly?

 

What if it Doesn’t End Badly?

Courtesy of 

The past decade has been one of endless prosperity. At least in risk assets. Since 2011, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 300%.

The return on certain individual securities makes the overall stock market look like a savings account. Over the same time, Apple and Amazon have gained more than one thousand percent. Netflix more than two thousand percent. Tesla more than sixteen thousand percent. $10,000 invested in Bitcoin five years ago is worth $1.2 million.

GameStop is up 200% in th...



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Zero Hedge

Bond Bloodbath Blows Up Stocks As Redditors-Revenge Hammers Hedgies (Again)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bonds and stocks were both battered today...

Source: Bloomberg

Which is why we wheeled out the deer!

Today was the worst day for equity/bond investors since March 2020...

...



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Politics

What is fascism?

 

What is fascism?

A Donald Trump supporter wears a gas mask and holds a bust of him after he and hundreds of others stormed the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of John Broich, Case Western Reserve University

Since before Donald Trump took office, historians have debated whether he is a fascist.

As a teacher of World War II history...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How does the Johnson & Johnson vaccine compare to other coronavirus vaccines? 4 questions answered

 

How does the Johnson & Johnson vaccine compare to other coronavirus vaccines? 4 questions answered

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine only requires one dose. Phill Magoke/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Maureen Ferran, Rochester Institute of Technology

Editor’s note: On Tuesday, Feb. 24, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration released the results of its trial of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine. The FDA found the vaccine to be safe...



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ValueWalk

The Math On Tesla Inc (TSLA) Doesn't Add Up

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In his recent interview with Tobias, Drew Dickson of Albert Bridge. discussed The Math On Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Doesn’t Add Up. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Math On Tesla Doesn't Add Up

Mine is it would keep me away from owning something like Tesla, unfortunately, because I can’t get there, even in the most– Toyota and Volkswagen both were founded in 1937, and they’re just incredible global-scale b...



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Digital Currencies

Bridgewater Explains When It Will Invest In Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Two weeks ago, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio called Bitcoin "one hell of an invention" adding that:

"I expect Bridgewater to soon offer an alt-cash fund and a storehold of wealth fund in order to better deal with the devaluation of money and credit that we consider to be a major risk and opportunity, and Bitcoin won’t escape our scrutiny.”

And now, after significant attention that his comments received, Senior Portfolio Strategist Jim Haskel sits dow...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Rising Inflation About To Hit U.S. Economy In Big Way?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Inflation seems to be a thing of the past… but current trading in bond and commodity markets tell us that it could become a thing of the future!

Inflation hasn’t been an issue, or even on our radar, since the 1980s. Sure, the 2007 surge in oil prices offered some concern but the financial crisis killed any thoughts of inflation.

So what’s got us concerned about inflation in 2021?

Today we take a look at long-term charts of two potential inflation indicators: Crude Oil ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 05:46:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Low liquidity means price can MOVE fast either way!



Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 05:52:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: if you have 100% of life savings in stocks alone, please adjust for a crash...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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