Posts Tagged ‘muni bonds’

Kyle Bass With David Faber: Bernanke’s ZIRP Is An ‘Inescapable Trap;’ Muni Bond Bloodbath Beckons But “States Will NOT Default”

Courtesy of The Daily Bail  

CNBC Video – Kyle Bass with David Faber – Feb. 16, 2011 

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Video – Part 2

Source – CNBC

Municipal bond defaults on the local level are likely and investors would be better off avoiding them, according to Kyle Bass, managing director of Hayman Capital.

Bass said he generally agrees with the call by famed banking analyst Meredith Whitney, who said as many as 100 defaults are likely that will cost more than $100 billion in damage.

Though Whitney’s call has prompted substantial backlash from her colleagues in the industry, Bass said the question is more a matter of degree.

"There are going to be a number of muni defaults, but it’s where you draw the line.  Will states be allowed to default?  Will legislation be introduced to allow states to restructure?  I don’t believe that’s the case.  I believe states will not default." 


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Whitney Whips Up Wall Street as Bear in Heels: Alice Schroeder – Bloomberg

meredith whitney, bear in heelsMeredith Whitney has done it again, turning Wall Street against her with a contrarian call, this time on municipal bonds.

The analyst’s prediction for “50 to 100 sizable defaults” of U.S. municipal bonds totaling “hundreds of billions of dollars” could become her Big Wrong Call. If so, it will knock Whitney from a pedestal, to the satisfaction of her many critics.

She has staked her credibility on this forecast, broadcast Dec. 20 in an interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes.” Her summary of a 600-page report to clients prompted a National League of Cities analyst to say she possessed a “stunning lack of understanding.” Other critics called her prediction “ludicrous,” “irresponsible,” “damaging,” and “overreaching.”

There’s a huge gap between these descriptions and Whitney’s track record as an analyst. The chasm is so big that it is worth exploring. Something interesting is going unexamined or unexplained.

Continue here: Whitney Whips Up Wall Street as Bear in Heels: Alice Schroeder – Bloomberg.

Picture credit by Markusram at Flickr


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MARKETS DEFY GRAVITY

By Surly Trader

Since the beginning of December, the S&P 500 has yet to meaningfully break down below its 10 day moving average.  We just like to blissfully crank upwards in valuations.  The Dow has hit its momentous 12,000 level and the S&P was inches away from 1,300.  Now that we have touched our psychological targets, maybe it is time we reassess how enthusiastic we have gotten.  Instead of looking at P/E ratios on 2011 earnings forecasts, I have seen more and more analysts consider 2012 and 2013 forecasts…

I guess our 10 day moving average is a fixed positive slope

When it comes to the lesser of investment evils, it certainly still looks like equities are more attractive than bonds.  The issue that I have is that most investors have set aside the significant tail risks that are out there.  Not to belabor the point, but there is still significant risk in the Eurozone.  Equity markets have ignored it, as well as concerns with local municipalities and states.  These risks are real and will take quite a long time to resolve.  While the VIX sits around 16 and realized volatility hovers near six year lows, we need to understand that risk flares come quickly and unexpectedly and there are plenty of issues that could precipitate are run.

The default spreads on the PIGS do not appear resolved to me so why is the Euro rallying?

I do not like to be negative, but it does get tiring when the arguments switch so fiercely from bearish to bullish stances.  It seems to be the psychology of not wanting to be miss out when the market is rallying or not wanting to be the last one in when the market is tanking.  Feast or Famine, no in-between.


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Sorry Charlie, Meredith Whitney Lives in a Free Country

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Charlie GasparinoI’ve always been a fan of Charlie Gasparino’s, I like his hard-nosed, old school journalism style and generally have agreed with a lot of his opinions over the years.  But his rant about Meredith Whitney’s municipal bond research is so far off the reservation, he may be in danger of losing his Indian name (Reports With Martinis).

Here’s Gasparino excoriating Whitney for being negative about the prospects for municipal fixed income investing in the Huffington Post:

And yet, as the municipal market is crashing on her prediction, with deals being pulled and slashed in size, with prices falling and taxpayers having to pay extra so cities and states can sell debt, Whitney is refusing to release the actual report that would tell us how she came to such a brash, and unprecedented prediction, on the grounds that her research is proprietary and for the use of the clients of her research firm only.

It’s about time Whitney came clean and released her report to the public so we can determine if it should be given so much credence; and if it shouldn’t, traders and investors can stop a possibly misguided prediction from causing further damage.

Hey Charlie, I don’t exactly agree with Whitney’s assertion that a Munigeddon is imminent, but she has the right to publish her research as publicly or as privately as she likes.  I’ll also note that muni bonds are suffering from limited liquidity as the mutual funds that make up a large portion of their ownership are seeing week after week of redemption.  Little Meredith Whitney may have a decent platform but she hardly moves hundreds of billions of dollars.

No, if anything, the blame here goes to the municipalities themselves for writing checks and making promises that their tax bases couldn’t cash.  The townsfolk won’t get fooled again – they are at the school board meetings and the Town Halls, they know there isn’t any money there.  Whitney’s call has simply been the most vocal expression of this general consensus.

Don’t kill the messenger.

Source:

Meredith Whitney Should Show Her Cards (Huffington Post)

Read Also:

Muni Misunderstandings (TRB)  


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The Shocking Selloff In Muni Bonds That Has Investors Running Scared.

Courtesy of Gregory White at The Business Insider

Today saw a massive selloff in the broader bond market, but the muni bond situation may be the most alarming.

The threat of the end of the Build America Bond program looms large, and it is scaring investors into selling out of the muni market.

It could be the next black swan looming, ready to cause an even larger problem for states already overburdened with debt.

Just check out the down move in the Muni bond ETF today. It may be off its lows of the day, but it still doesn’t look good.

chart of the day, mub, dec 2010

Originally published at The Business Insider, CHART OF THE DAY: The Shocking Selloff In Muni Bonds That Has Investors Running Scared.

 


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Phil's Favorites

Goldman Sachs Refuses to Say If It Was Placing Trades for Dallas Fed President Kaplan as Materially False Statement Released by Board on Kaplan's Relationship with Goldman Sachs

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Federal Reserve Building in Washington, D.C.

The biggest trading scandal in the Federal Reserve’s 108-year history took down two Federal Reserve Bank Presidents yesterday. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who traded in and out of REITs last year in amounts of $1,000 to $50,000, will leave this Thursday; Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, whose trading made Rosengren look like a Boy Scout, will step down from his post at the e...



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Zero Hedge

Blain: The Threat Board Is Looking Busy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Many people have speculated that if we knew exactly why the bowl of petunias had thought that we would know a lot more about the nature of the Universe than we do now.”

Markets are never as bad as you fear, but never as good as you hope. The Threat Board has seldom looked so complex: we can try to predict outcomes, but its notoriously difficult. The list of potential ignition points seems to be expanding ex...



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Biotech/COVID-19

New Johnson & Johnson data shows second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19 - but one dose is still strong against delta variant

 

New Johnson & Johnson data shows second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19 – but one dose is still strong against delta variant

Public health officials have been waiting for good data before making any decisions about booster shots for people who received Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen COVID-19 vaccine. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Maureen Ferran, Rochester Institute of Technology ...



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Chart School

Silver during periods of Industrial Inflation

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When industrial inflation is hotter than consumer inflation silver does well.

Previous Post: Silver, after the FED said taper talk is a long way off

In the chart below we see the relationship between silver and the yield curve and the Producer Price Inflation. 

The yield curve is the US 30 yr interest rate less the Fed Funds interest rate (blue line). When the blue line is high a steep yield curve is present, and when it is low a flat yield curve is present. A steep yield curve is when longer term rates are higher than short term rates vica versa for a flat yi...

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Digital Currencies

China Declares All Virtual Currency Transactions "Illegal", Sending Crypto Prices Tumbling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

China expanded its escalating crackdown on cryptocurrencies on Friday when its central bank declared that all activities related to digital coins are “illegal” and must be banned.

In a statement dated Sept. 15 but was only posted onto the central bank’s website at 5 p.m. local time on Friday, the People’s Bank of China said the latest notice was to further prevent the risks surrounding crypto trading and to maintain national security and social stability.

Naming bitcoin, ether and tether as examples, the centra...



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Politics

'What Betrayal Looks Like': UN Report Says World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming by 2100

 

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

'What Betrayal Looks Like': UN Report Says World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming by 2100

"Whatever our so-called 'leaders' are doing," said Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, "they are doing it wrong."

By Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

The United Nations warned Friday t...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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