Posts Tagged ‘Non-Farm Payrolls Report’

Jobless Friday – US, Japan and Europe Add More Stimulus

Wheee – more free money!

The money train left the station just ahead of the US market close yesterday when the House passed a $15Bn Jobs Bill although it remains to be seen if Jim Bunning will pass it.  China doesn't need Bunning's permission to hand out free money and they will be "allocating 63.2 Billion Yuan" to fight high housing prices by SUBSIDIZING low-cost housing.  Come to think of it – I object to that!  Someone in China needs a lesson in some basic economics

The big boost this morning came from Japan, where bonds hit the highest level of the year after the Nikkei newspaper said the central bank at its March 16 meeting may discuss additional monetary easing steps.  It doesn't matter whether this report is true or not as it already did it's job and shot the Nikkei up 223 points for the day, erasing two week's worth of losses in a single session.  It's hard for the BOJ to get easier than our own Fed but Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday he needs evidence of “highly sustainable” growth before supporting tighter monetary policy, while James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed said the central bank should remain “accommodative” – these are, of course, the Fed's code words for MORE FREE MONEY! 

Of course, our Futures are up 1% from yesterday's low and the commodity markets LOVE IT and oil is back at $80.65 with copper back at $3.40 despite "weak" demand in China, where stockpiles of copper are now at 7-year highs and even Goldman Sachs has withdrawn their buy recommendation on coppper because of concern that economic recovery in developed markets isn’t on “solid footing.”  “About 60 percent of China's copper is used in the power industry, and our sales to wire-and-cable users reflected that demand is rather weak,” Chairman Wei Jianghong said, while attending the National People’s Congress.

  

The demand is not very strong in the first place,” Jiangxi Copper Chairman Li said in Beijing while at the congress. “But a lot of people have long positions in the market, so I think in the first half of this year, copper prices will be good.”  Copper stockpiles in China jumped to 149,478 tons for the week ended Feb. 26, 28 percent more than the week ended Feb. 12, according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange.  Demand from China…
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Testy Tuesday – Back to our Bounce Levels?

Too tricky to call!

We're trying to be bullish now, so we don't complain about stick saves and we got a nice one into yesterday's close and another one in the futures, which were down about 50 at 3am – but it still looks like BS to me.

On Thursday morning I said: "Our 5% "must hold levels" remain:  Dow 10,165, S&P 1,088, Nas 2,200, NYSE 7,000 and RUT 620 with 3 of 5 below = BAD!"  We got the Dow, S&P and the NYSE back over the line yesterday and now we need the Nasdaq and the Russell to show us the money and catch up.  Of course, this is just our "averting disaster" levels – we haven't even broken our "weak bounce" targets of: Dow 10,300, S&P 1,105, Nasdaq 2,225, NYSE 7,100 and Russell 625 that the 5% rule predicted in last Monday's post

Last Wednesday I asked the question, is it weakness or good old fashioned consolidation?  My premise was that commodities were overvalued and we were due for some rotational correction, which was GOOD and HEALTHY.  The market still has much to prove and we are still pursuing disastrous economic policies that will all end in tears but, in the meantime, we can still party like it's 1999 as long as we know where the nearest exit is – and that's what our Disaster Hedging is all about. 

We took positions on DXD and QID yesterday as the weak bounce we got was a good chance to establish new hedges and I'm hoping we get another push in commodities so we can short some of them.  EDZ is getting interesting again, back at $5.65, about 10% away from our sweet spot ($5) for taking up a position but we may hit them early if the US indexes can't provide some leadership this week.  As you can see from Trader Mike's charts – we have plenty of resistance to get through and we're still waiting to see a rise on anything but weak volume to give us more confidence.    

Germany gave our confidence a small boost this morning as Retail Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, rose 0.8 percent from November, when they dropped a revised 1.7 percent.  Germany’s government this month raised its forecast for 2010 economic growth to 1.4 percent from 1.2…
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December 2009 Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview and Forecast

December 2009 Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview and Forecast

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

As you may know, and as we suggested the other day, the ADP report, based on payroll data from American business, showed a loss of 84,000 jobs in December, versus expectations of a loss of only 75,000 jobs.

We also suggested that this Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll Report will be a positive surprise, at least 10,000 or so jobs to the good. Here are the details.

The Imaginary Jobs component, also known as the Bureau of Labor Statistics Birth-Death Model, will contribute approximately 72,000 jobs allegedly created by small businesses with less credible evidence than a Bigfoot or an Elvis sighting.

Not that they are always positive. Each January there is an enormous job loss shown here, in the neighborhood of about 350,000 jobs. The reason they do this is because the seasonal adjustment factor is so huge in January that this imaginary jobs number does not matter, since it is subtracted (and added) from the numbers prior to the seasonal adjustment.

We can expect this model to continue to show positive annual jobs growth until the End of Days, and perhaps longer than that if there is fireproof paper in the afterlife. [click on tables and charts to enlarge]

The ‘headline jobs number’ which is the Seasonally Adjusted Number will be a positive 58,000 jobs, and provide much joy and exultation in Washington and on Wall Street. Pundits like Paul Krugman will caution that the economy is still fragile and a second stimulus bill will be required to insure these positive gains.

What is the basis for these projected numbers? The same basis used by the BLS – nothing. At least nothing connected with the real world. These are the numbers that bureaucrats might mindlessly crank out in response to the desire of their bosses for certain targets, a phenomenon well understood by most corporate financial staffs.

We drew the trendline on that chart earlier this year, assuming that the government would wish to show a steady job increase with a positive number by December, or at least January. So far we have not been disappointed, although there have been quite a few revisions along the way.

There will also be revisions this time again, with some jobs added and borrowed from prior months to help


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Phil's Favorites

Why Jack Dorsey's Square paid a record $39 billion for Afterpay

 

Why Jack Dorsey’s Square paid a record $39 billion for Afterpay

Courtesy of Lien Duong, Curtin University and Sonny Pham, Curtin University

The A$39 billion (US$29 billion) that Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s digital payments company Square is paying to acquire Australian upstart payments outfit Afterpay is the biggest takeover deal in Australian corporate history.

It surpasses the A$32 billion European commercial real estate giant Unibail-Rodamco agreed to pay for Frank Lowy’s Westfield Corporation in 2...



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Zero Hedge

Texas Judge Blocks Governor's Order Halting Transport Of Covid-Positive Illegals

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a short-term victory for the Biden administration, a federal judge in Texas blocked an executive order which restricts the transport of infected illegal immigrants on Tuesday, suggesting that the order itself would have the effect of "exacerbating the spread of COVID-19."

U.S. District Judge Kathleen Cardone of El Paso agreed with the Justice Department, which accused Governor Greg Abbott (R) of potentially worsening the spread of the virus - as impeding the transfer of undocumented migrants would prolong the ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 13 March 2021, 06:40:57 PM

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Comment: @crossbordercap Peak liquidity already evidence from our GLI momentum signal...has 6-9 month lead-time on markets and 15-20 months on economies



Date Found: Friday, 19 March 2021, 10:55:22 PM

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Biotech/COVID-19

Americans Tend To Stick To Their Stance On COVID-19 Vaccines

 

Source: Bloomberg, via ZeroHedge

Courtesy of Felix Richter, Statista

As U.S. health officials and the Biden administration desperately try to kickstart the stalling rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in face of the highly contagious Delta variant, President Biden...



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Digital Currencies

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

 

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

Stablecoins promise more stability than other cryptocurrencies. DenBoma/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.

The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchm...



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Politics

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

 

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

A lot of coastal infrastructure wasn’t designed for the frequent flooding and crashing waves brought by rising seas. Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bryan Keogh, The Conversation and Stacy Morford, The Conversation

...



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Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

Don't miss Phil's Webinar on July 7 at 1:00 pm EST. It's FREE and open to all who wish to join.

Click here: 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6552545459443187211

Join us to learn Phil's trading tactics and strategies in real-time!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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