Posts Tagged ‘Non-Farm Payrolls Report’

Jobless Friday – US, Japan and Europe Add More Stimulus

Wheee – more free money!

The money train left the station just ahead of the US market close yesterday when the House passed a $15Bn Jobs Bill although it remains to be seen if Jim Bunning will pass it.  China doesn't need Bunning's permission to hand out free money and they will be "allocating 63.2 Billion Yuan" to fight high housing prices by SUBSIDIZING low-cost housing.  Come to think of it – I object to that!  Someone in China needs a lesson in some basic economics

The big boost this morning came from Japan, where bonds hit the highest level of the year after the Nikkei newspaper said the central bank at its March 16 meeting may discuss additional monetary easing steps.  It doesn't matter whether this report is true or not as it already did it's job and shot the Nikkei up 223 points for the day, erasing two week's worth of losses in a single session.  It's hard for the BOJ to get easier than our own Fed but Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday he needs evidence of “highly sustainable” growth before supporting tighter monetary policy, while James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed said the central bank should remain “accommodative” – these are, of course, the Fed's code words for MORE FREE MONEY! 

Of course, our Futures are up 1% from yesterday's low and the commodity markets LOVE IT and oil is back at $80.65 with copper back at $3.40 despite "weak" demand in China, where stockpiles of copper are now at 7-year highs and even Goldman Sachs has withdrawn their buy recommendation on coppper because of concern that economic recovery in developed markets isn’t on “solid footing.”  “About 60 percent of China's copper is used in the power industry, and our sales to wire-and-cable users reflected that demand is rather weak,” Chairman Wei Jianghong said, while attending the National People’s Congress.

  

The demand is not very strong in the first place,” Jiangxi Copper Chairman Li said in Beijing while at the congress. “But a lot of people have long positions in the market, so I think in the first half of this year, copper prices will be good.”  Copper stockpiles in China jumped to 149,478 tons for the week ended Feb. 26, 28 percent more than the week ended Feb. 12, according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange.  Demand from China…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




Testy Tuesday – Back to our Bounce Levels?

Too tricky to call!

We're trying to be bullish now, so we don't complain about stick saves and we got a nice one into yesterday's close and another one in the futures, which were down about 50 at 3am – but it still looks like BS to me.

On Thursday morning I said: "Our 5% "must hold levels" remain:  Dow 10,165, S&P 1,088, Nas 2,200, NYSE 7,000 and RUT 620 with 3 of 5 below = BAD!"  We got the Dow, S&P and the NYSE back over the line yesterday and now we need the Nasdaq and the Russell to show us the money and catch up.  Of course, this is just our "averting disaster" levels – we haven't even broken our "weak bounce" targets of: Dow 10,300, S&P 1,105, Nasdaq 2,225, NYSE 7,100 and Russell 625 that the 5% rule predicted in last Monday's post

Last Wednesday I asked the question, is it weakness or good old fashioned consolidation?  My premise was that commodities were overvalued and we were due for some rotational correction, which was GOOD and HEALTHY.  The market still has much to prove and we are still pursuing disastrous economic policies that will all end in tears but, in the meantime, we can still party like it's 1999 as long as we know where the nearest exit is – and that's what our Disaster Hedging is all about. 

We took positions on DXD and QID yesterday as the weak bounce we got was a good chance to establish new hedges and I'm hoping we get another push in commodities so we can short some of them.  EDZ is getting interesting again, back at $5.65, about 10% away from our sweet spot ($5) for taking up a position but we may hit them early if the US indexes can't provide some leadership this week.  As you can see from Trader Mike's charts – we have plenty of resistance to get through and we're still waiting to see a rise on anything but weak volume to give us more confidence.    

Germany gave our confidence a small boost this morning as Retail Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, rose 0.8 percent from November, when they dropped a revised 1.7 percent.  Germany’s government this month raised its forecast for 2010 economic growth to 1.4 percent from 1.2…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




December 2009 Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview and Forecast

December 2009 Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview and Forecast

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

As you may know, and as we suggested the other day, the ADP report, based on payroll data from American business, showed a loss of 84,000 jobs in December, versus expectations of a loss of only 75,000 jobs.

We also suggested that this Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll Report will be a positive surprise, at least 10,000 or so jobs to the good. Here are the details.

The Imaginary Jobs component, also known as the Bureau of Labor Statistics Birth-Death Model, will contribute approximately 72,000 jobs allegedly created by small businesses with less credible evidence than a Bigfoot or an Elvis sighting.

Not that they are always positive. Each January there is an enormous job loss shown here, in the neighborhood of about 350,000 jobs. The reason they do this is because the seasonal adjustment factor is so huge in January that this imaginary jobs number does not matter, since it is subtracted (and added) from the numbers prior to the seasonal adjustment.

We can expect this model to continue to show positive annual jobs growth until the End of Days, and perhaps longer than that if there is fireproof paper in the afterlife. [click on tables and charts to enlarge]

The ‘headline jobs number’ which is the Seasonally Adjusted Number will be a positive 58,000 jobs, and provide much joy and exultation in Washington and on Wall Street. Pundits like Paul Krugman will caution that the economy is still fragile and a second stimulus bill will be required to insure these positive gains.

What is the basis for these projected numbers? The same basis used by the BLS – nothing. At least nothing connected with the real world. These are the numbers that bureaucrats might mindlessly crank out in response to the desire of their bosses for certain targets, a phenomenon well understood by most corporate financial staffs.

We drew the trendline on that chart earlier this year, assuming that the government would wish to show a steady job increase with a positive number by December, or at least January. So far we have not been disappointed, although there have been quite a few revisions along the way.

There will also be revisions this time again, with some jobs added and borrowed from prior months to help


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

2019 Is 5th Consecutive Year With No Operating Profit Growth

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Joe Carson, former Chief Economist & Director of Global Economic Research for Alliance Bernstein

2019 operating profits will show no growth for the 5th consecutive year. That would mark the longest stretch of no earnings growth since the late 1990s. Prospects for 2020-profit growth look slim as well given consensus GDP growth estimates of around 2%, slow global growth and rising costs pressure from labor.

Operating Profits

Q4 GDP and the full year 2019 operating profit numbers will not be released until March, but one...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Goldman Sachs: The Vampire Squid's Alum Control Two Fed Banks, the U.S. Treasury, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Protester Wears a Swamp Creature Costume Outside Goldman Sachs Headquarters, January 17, 2017

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Robert S. Kaplan), the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (Neel Kashkari), the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury (Steve Mnuchin), the President of the European Central Bank (Mario Draghi) and the head of the Bank of England (Mark Carney) all have two things in common: they sit atop vast amounts of money and they are all alums of Goldman Sachs. In addition, the immed...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bull Case For Stocks, Testing Critical Breakout Level, Says The Inspector!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Some price points lend themselves to potential turning points. Is the S&P at one of those price points? The inspector suggests it is!

This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years. Fibonacci was applied to the 2018 highs and 2018 lows.

The rally off the December 2018 lows, has the S&P testing its 161% extension level at (1).

While at this extension level, momentum is the 2nd highest in the past 5-years.

The Fibonacci extension level becomes a price point where some stock market bulls need/want to see...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

11 Communication Services Stocks Moving In Thursday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Pareteum, Inc. (NASDAQ: TEUM) stock moved upwards by 4.5% to $0.87 during Thursday's pre-market session.
  • Comcast, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) shares rose 2.0% to $48.40. The most recent rating by Wells Fargo, on January 16, is at Overweight, with a price target of $51.00.
  • Vodafone Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: VOD) shares moved upwards by 1.4% to $20.22.
Losers
  • Genius Brands Intl, Inc. ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

The Technical Traders

TRADING STRATEGIES FOR GDXJ, SPY, BONDS, AND NATURAL GAS

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen joins me today to shares his trading strategy for 4 different markets. While most of these markets are not correlated he has reasons for why he is long in each. Pick and choose where you want to deploy your capital.

Get Chris’ Trade Signals Today – Click Here

...

more from Tech. Traders

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



more from Our Members

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>