But, there’s still a belief that the price of oil will close around $75 by year’s end.

Philip K. Verleger Jr., University of Calgary energy expert is not one of the people that thinks oil will trade around $75. He sees a radically different picture with the price of oil slumping all the way down to $20 because the fundamental balance of supply and demand is out of whack.

LAT/Naked Capitalism: For eight straight months, oil supplies have been running about 2 million barrels a day higher than the global demand of 83 million barrels a day, Verleger said. Eventually, he and others predicted, suppliers will tire of paying to store all of the surplus oil and flood the market.

"That is the largest and longest continuous glut of supply that I have seen in 30 years of following energy prices," Verleger said. "It’s a huge surplus. There has never been anything like it."

Verleger says surplus oil is being held by investors, oil companies and banks. Eventually they’ll run out of cheap storage locations, and when that happens, the market will be flooded with oil and price will bottom to $20.

Goldman and Dresdner agree with the idea that the price of oil will fall, but neither sees it falling that much. Tracy Alloway at the FT’s Energy Source has reports from each of them on oil.

Here’s Dresdner’s take: As excessive economic optimism fades, markets are reassessing the situation. The fact that oil prices have doubled since mid February was largely due to greater economic optimism and not any improvement in the general fundamental data. Although US crude stocks have fallen sharply in past weeks, this was primarily because US refineries increased crude oil refining levels in the run up to and during the summer driving season. Owing to higher oil product stocks, weaker demand for petrol