Posts Tagged ‘OIL SPECULATION’

Financial Friday – EU Stress Tests and US Debt Mess

$WTIC WEEKLYFirst, the good news:

We did it again at the NYMEX, calling the crooks out in yesterday’s morning post and followed up with my Alert to Members, which was posted over at Seeking Alpha and on our Facebook and Twitter pages but not on StockTwits (more on this debacle later) so those guys missed out on yet another Billion Dollar opportunity (which I predicted we would get on the 9th) as we once again called a huge move in oil with my 9:50 Alert to Members saying:  

Europe is down half a point and we are up half a point so something is bound to give.  We’re not quite getting to $99 in oil so we have to be patient and wait for a break below $98.50 to re-short the futures (/CL).  On USO puts, roll up or DD on Aug and I’ll be liking the TOMORROW $39 puts at .50 on the assumption we get a bit of a sell-off after the nat gas inventories at 10:30 (as they tend to hold up hope until then).  

At the time, we had 185,000 NYMEX contracts to work with so plenty for everyone and, as per our June 1st plan to break the NYMEX speculators by using their own crooked game against them (because God knows the government does nothing) this is a PSW trade idea we share with everybody.  And why not – they gang up together to screw the American people – it’s only fair if the American people return the favor by calling their bluff! 

We called their bluff right on schedule at the 10:30 Natural Gas inventory announcement and as you can see from this intraday chart of our beloved /CL Oil Futures, it was a slam dunk for our futures players as well as our option traders, who picked up 250% ($500 turns into $1,750) in just 4 hours!  That’s a nice day’s work, don’t you think?  

Even a (yawn!) stock trader could have done well as USO plunged from $38.70 to $37.20 (4%) right on our schedule but we were after bigger fish as those 185,000 NYMEX contracts took a $647,000,000 hit so plenty of profits on our side to share for all of our readers and THAT is how you punish the speculators – with the only thing they do care about in this World – Money!…
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Thursday Thump – Yucky Euro and the Oil Slick

$WTIC WEEKLYGood golly what a mess!  

I hate to say I told you so but…  Oh wait, no, I’m actually loving this…  I TOLD YOU SO!  Look at July 2008 and look at June 2011.  Now, look at July 2008 and look at June 2011.  Now, look at where oil USUALLY trades.  Is it over $100 or under $80?  You don’t want to go back further because then the case could be made for under $60.

Wages have not gone up (adjusted for inflation, since 1973), home prices have not gone up (since 1985), stocks have not gone up (since 2006) – just oil and gold and silver and other stuff that greedy rich bastards like to hoard in hopes of making themselves even richer – even though it comes at the expense of EVERYONE ELSE IN THE WORLD.  

One of the protesters in Greece had a sign that said Prime Minister George Papandreou was "Goldman Sach’s employee of the month" – now THAT’s a good insult!  At least it indicates that the Greek people UNDERSTAND how they are being screwed over while it’s the Americans who are bending over and taking it from the Banksters without complaint.  

I’m not going to get into it again but WHO pays that extra $30 a barrel for oil?  The bottom 99.9%, that’s who.  Sure The Donald also pays $4 a gallon when he gasses up the limo and he also pays double to heat his gigantic homes but a full tank in the limo is $120 while the prix fixe at Masa is $450 per person for Donald’s lunch so I doubt he’s as worried as you are about a tank of gas.  The American people are having $1.5Bn PER DAY extracted from their wallets at $4 per gallon, which is $547Bn a year and Globally that’s $2Tn spent on gasoline alone.  All that money is/was disposable income that is being directed AWAY from other parts of the economy. 

Add in the heating oil, natural gas, oil products (rubber etc.) and all the pass-through energy costs from manufactures and we’re up to about $5Tn, nearly 10% of the global economy going up in flames to enrich perhaps 1,000 oil men (and some of those men fund terrorism with their profits) and the speculators who shove the prices higher.  THEY ARE DESTROYING THE WORLD!  And it shouldn’t be the people…
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Thrilling Thursday – Can We Make Another Billion Today?

Wheeeee!  

$1,129,860,000!  That’s how much money was made shorting 376,620 NYMEX contracts at $103 yesterday, as we planned!  Congratulations to those of you who got your share playing along with us and, to the manipulators who got stuck with the bill – screw you bastards, we have your number and we’re going to ring it now!  I called a cash-out at the $100 line in Member Chat as 2.9% was more of a drop than we expected in one day and we will re-load on the bounce as we cross back below the $100.50 line – as discussed in this morning’s Member Chat - assuming the Dollar has bottomed out at 74.35.

This isn’t complicated people – what’s the 2.5% line off of $103?  $100.425.  That’s where we’ll look for oil to consolidate but below that line we’ll be comfortable with our shorts again, looking for those next legs down to $98.88 (down 4%) and then $97.85, where we will once again look for a 20% retrace to $98.88 and then a nice short there when it fails.  So come on – you can play along at home – don’t miss out on making the next $1.129Bn!  

Meanwhile, what’s a 20% bounce off a $3 drop? 60 cents, right?  Where did oil bounce to in the futures?  $100.60?  This is not rocket science folks…  We teach these little tips to our Members every day at Philstockworld.  Sure you may find it disturbing that the chart we drew up (above) in early April is hit almost to the penny on the NYSE yesterday (2 months later) as it halted right on our red line – but that just shows us that Bots are running this market (as we keep telling you) and it also means that we can rely on our ranges and that makes it EASY to make good trading decisions.  

Also in Member Chat last night, I reviewed 8 short put ideas (bullish) that can net us over $3,000 in 15 days if we get a bounce and hold our "Must Hold" levels.  This is the nice thing about hedging – we make money on the way up OR on the way down and, when we are trading in a range – like we hopefully will this summer – then we make money both ways on a regular basis!  Let the market manipulators play their…
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So You Want to Be an Oil Speculator?

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So You Want to Be an Oil Speculator?

By Ari J. Officer, courtesy of TIME

oil speculators, TIME 

You don’t need a huge pot of bailout money to trade oil these days. Just don’t expect to make the big bucks without one.

In the past year oil has traded above $120 per barrel and below $50 per barrel, generating plenty of buzz (even within government agencies like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission) about oil speculators and their mysterious ways of making mounds of money. (Read "Why There Should Be More Oil Speculation, Not Less.")

So who are these traders who cryptically buy and sell oil contracts for pure profit, without supplying it or using it? Most people immediately think they’re hedge funds but forget about the investment banks. Then again, you don’t have to be a hedge fund or an investment bank to be an oil speculator. Be forewarned, though: trading oil futures is not like trading stocks and bonds. It’s not for the ordinary investor. It’s a wild ride. If you’re willing to take the risk, here’s how you might go about it:

First, you’ll need money. How much? Let’s say you want to trade one contract of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Since you’re not a member of the exchange, and no one will really trust your new oil venture, you’re going to need to start with at least $10,000 in your margin account (similar to a brokerage account, but it lets you leverage your bets to the hilt) as collateral to comfortably trade one contract. That might sound like a lot for just one contract, but a single contract on NYMEX represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil: if the price moves $10 per barrel, you just had a swing of $10,000 in your account, which means you’ve either doubled your money or lost your shirt, your dreams wiped out in mere minutes. And you thought casinos had all the action!

Next, you need to find a broker and clearinghouse to connect you with the markets to trade and also act as insurance to the exchange that you will cover any potential losses. (Read "Borders of Sudan’s Oil-Rich Region Shrink.")

Finally, are you ready to monitor the oil market 24/7 — to be peeking at your monitor even while…
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CHART OF THE DAY: OIL SPECULATION

CHART OF THE DAY: OIL SPECULATION

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This note from The Economist explains much of the recent rise in oil prices:

THE oil market is behaving like a bucking bronco again, and politicians are once more blaming speculators for careening prices. It is difficult to assemble a definitive explanation for the rally: a weak dollar helps oil prices, but evidence for improving supply and demand remains thin. Positions held on NYMEX, the New York commodities exchange, have indeed soared. In 2008 America’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates NYMEX, examined how the changing positions of hedge funds affect prices. It found correlation, not causation, but its investigations were hampered by the fact that it could not examine intra-day trades. Nor could it monitor certain derivatives, such as those traded via London’s InterContinental Exchange (ICE), in which Wall Street dealers are particularly prominent. But in a sign of things to come in the oil market, on June 12th the CFTC said it had launched a public investigation to see whether the biggest natural-gas contract traded on ICE was moving prices around in the more regulated futures markets.

oil1

 


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Zero Hedge

Japan Increases Lead Over China As Largest Foreign Holder Of U.S. Treasurys

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

For much of 2019, many were wondering if, or rather when, as a result of the ongoing trade war, China would lose its status as the largest US foreign creditor. The answer was revealed last month, when in June, Japan finally surpassed China as the top foreign US creditor, however due to a plunge in Chinese TSY holdings, but due to a jump in Japanese holdings of US paper. One month later, the trend continued as Japan extended its gain on China as the largest US creditor .

...



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Phil's Favorites

Suddenly, the world's biggest trade agreement won't allow corporations to sue governments

 

Suddenly, the world's biggest trade agreement won't allow corporations to sue governments

The 16 nations negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership account for almost half the world’s population. Shutterstock/Datawrapper

Courtesy of Pat Ranald, University of Sydney

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership has been touted as the best hope for keeping world trade flowing after the attacks on the World Trade Organisation.

The WTO isn’t dead yet, but in a two-pronged attack, US P...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Create A Panic Peak This Week?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Yesterday Crude Oil rallied nearly 15%. How often does Crude rally this much in a day? Not often!

How many times has Crude rallied nearly 15% in the past 20-years? Only one other time, which suggests that yesterdays move was a rare event.

This chart looks at Crude Oil on a weekly basis over the past 2-years. Last year Crude Oil created a bearish reversal pattern at the 2018 highs and a bullish reversal pattern at the 2018 lows.

Earlier this year, Crude created a bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick pattern), while testing its 61% retracement level of last years hig...



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The Technical Traders

VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market.  Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.

The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extend of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event.  Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility wi...



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Insider Scoop

3 Takeaways From SeaWorld CEO's Surprise Resignation

Courtesy of Benzinga

SeaWorld Entertainment Inc (NYSE: SEAS) announced Monday evening that Gustavo Antorcha resigned as CEO and board member due to a "difference of approach."

What Happened

Antorcha's resignation will be effective immediately and he will be replaced with CFO Marc ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Is The Drone Strike a Black Swan?

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Pundits are calling yesterday’s drone strke a “black swan.” Can a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility, be a “black swan.”

According to Investopedia:

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

I seriously doubt that no one expected or could have predicted a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility.

Call Me A B...

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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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