Posts Tagged ‘oil supply’

Bubbles, Inflation and Overcapacity

Bubbles, Inflation and Overcapacity

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds  

Bubbles in water

The global central banks have flooded the world economy with hot money for years. Why has this created massive asset bubbles rather than inflation?

In the 1970s, expanding credit triggered a decade-long bout of high inflation as cheap money chased scarce goods. Why hasn’t the massive expansion of credit/hot money of the past decade caused inflation? Short answer: overcapacity.

Let’s look at a few charts to recall the enormity of the current credit bubble: the trillions of dollars of credit created, the trillions borrowed in mortgages and other credit to chase asset prices upward, the trillions created as assets like housing rose in bubblicious euphoria, and the trillions extracted from those skyrocketing assets:

Despite the trillions being created, borrowed and pumped into the economy, inflation remained benign:

With all that money flowing around, jobs were relatively plentiful, setting a floor under consumption and consumer credit:

Even as all this money chased goods, services and assets, interest rates fell, earning savers less and less return:

Meanwhile, the capacity to make stuff like steel exploded:

So here’s the dynamic which enabled low interest rates and low inflation even as credit exploded and bubbles rose in one asset class after another.

1. Massive expansion of credit was paralleled by a massive expansion of industrial capacity in China and indeed the entire world.

2. This expansion of capacity was matched by an expansion of supply in commodities. As the industrialization of China (one of the so-called BRIC nations--China, Russia, India and Brazil) and other developing nations drove demand for commodities, the incentives to exploit new sources drove up supply of almost everything: oil, iron ore, coffee, etc.

3. While prices have fluctuated in an upward bias, at no time did the cost of commodities rise to levels which threatened global growth except for the oil spike in 2008. Adjusted for inflation, oil is well within historical boundaries even at $80/barrel.

4. To feed the giant credit-dependent machine they’d fostered, central banks kept lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity/money supply. This drove the returns on savings and bonds down to absurdly low levels, forcing money managers to chase riskier assets to make a decent return on investments.

5. This need to earn…
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ValueWalk

Berkshire Hathaway's Second-Quarter Earnings

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Berkshire Hathaway’s second-quarter earnings; it feels like deja vu all over again; it may be time for bank stocks to trade higher; the lowest-ever u.s. junk bond yield; your worst 1%.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Berkshire Hathaway's Second-Quarter Earnings

1) My longtime friend and former partner, Glenn Tongue, is the ax on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B).

So, as I do every quarter, I asked if he'd share his thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter earnings report (here are links to the ...



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Zero Hedge

El Erian: Reading The Dollar Doldrums

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Mohamed El-Erian via Project Syndicate,

A sharp decline in the relative value of the dollar this year has been met with cheers from those hoping for a short-term boost to the US economy, and with hand-wringing by those worried about the currency's global standing. But while both views reflect underlying truths, neither tells the whole story.

...



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Phil's Favorites

New Study Finds Potential Reason Why COVID-19 Occurs Less In Children

By Paula Liu via The Epoch Times, via ZeroHedge

The reason COVID-19 occurs less frequently in children could be due to the lack of a certain enzyme, researchers have found.

This new study detailed in the Journal of the American Medical Association ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

New Study Finds Potential Reason Why COVID-19 Occurs Less In Children

By Paula Liu via The Epoch Times, via ZeroHedge

The reason COVID-19 occurs less frequently in children could be due to the lack of a certain enzyme, researchers have found.

This new study detailed in the Journal of the American Medical Association ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Bear Market Resistance Kiss In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is ole Doc Copper about to ends its 9-year bear market? I suspect we will find out the answer to the question very soon!

Doc Copper has created a series of higher lows inside the falling channel (1) since it peaked back in 2011.

The rally from the lows in March of this year, has Doc Copper testing the top of its falling channel as well as a support/resistance price zone at (2).

With Doc Copper still in a bear market (lower highs for 9-years), this price test comes into play as important resistance at (2).

If Doc Copper breaks out at (2), it would send...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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