Posts Tagged ‘Online’

Apple Delivers Monster Quarter, Blows Away Whispers

LIVE ANALYSIS: Apple Delivers Monster Quarter, Blows Away Whispers (AAPL)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

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Press release out…

HUGE quarter.  Revenue of $9.9 billion blows away whisper of $9.4 billion. EPS of $1.82 blows away whispers of $1.65-ish.

iPhone sales of 7.4 million in-line with estimates despite supply constraints.  Mac sales huge.  iPod sales not as bad as many had feared.

Upside appears to have come from Macs and margins.  The Mac resurgence is great news.  This business had stalled, and Apple has a huge opportunity to gain share in the PC market.

December guidance comically conservative, but not alarming. 

Overall: Wow.  Apple is on its way to becoming the defacto platform standard in mobile.  And the crumbling of Microsoft’s Windows monopoly has opened a huge window on the desktop.  The company is galloping after both opportunities.

Conference call will begin at 5PM/2PM.  Here’s the link: www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq409/   We’ll be covering it live.

CONFERENCE CALL NOTES:

5:00: Waiting for call to begin…

5:04: Call starts.  Preamble crap.

5:06: "Extremely pleased."  (Understandably.)   Revenue up 25%.  Operating margin highest ever: 22%. Adjusted numbers huge, too.

5:07: Macs.  3.05 million, up 17%  Biggest ever by 440k.  Growing faster than market 19 of last 20 quarters.  Best user experience.  17% growth compares to 2% market growth = huge market share gain.  laptops 74% of mix and all of the growth.  Successful back-to-school.  12% growth to education.  50,000 Macbooks to Maine (lucky bastards).  3-4 weeks inventory at beginning and end of quarter.

5:10: iPods.  10.2 million, down from 11 million.  iPod touch up 100% y/y, driven by back to school and App store.  Share of US market still over 70%.  Top-selling and continued to gain share year over year.  Began and ended with 4-6 weeks of inventory.  iTunes another great quarter.  Largest music retailer, 11 million songs, 7500 movies.

5:11: iPhones.  7.4 million, up 7% (last year had 2mm inventory build).  Sell-through up 38%.  Widened lead in customer satisfaction.  Start selling in China end of this month.  Also expanding carrier relationship in UK and Canada.  App Store: 500 million downloads in quarter.  $2.3 billion in quarter.

5:13: Stores.  $1.87 billion, vs $1.72 billion.  670,000 Macs vs. 576,000. 


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Microsoft-Yahoo Deal A Logistical And Regulatory Nightmare

Microsoft-Yahoo Deal A Logistical And Regulatory Nightmare

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

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The official details of the Microsoft-Yahoo deal aren’t much different than the leaks we reported last night. 

Here’s our take: 

  • The deal is significantly worse than expected for Yahoo, as the company will get no money upfront. 
  • The deal is positive for Microsoft, but largely because Microsoft was nowhere in search without it.  Saving the upfront payment is also a help.
  • Ironically, the deal will likely be positive for Google, which will now likely benefit from months of purgatory as Microsoft and Yahoo work to clear regulatory scrutiny and then go through the massive challenge of trying to integrate their sales forces and technology.   Google itself will also now be able to argue persuasively that there is a big, viable (if discombobulated) competitor in the market.

Conceptually, the idea of Microsoft and Yahoo combining forces is smart.  Neither alone has enough share of the search market to be a "must buy," and search relevance and pricing improves with scale.  Both companies would likely just continue to lose share ad infinitum without a deal, so they have little to lose by working together.  And Yahoo will gain some cost savings, at least for a while.

That said, we think the structure of the deal could end up being a disaster.

The deal calls for Yahoo to handle sales and Microsoft to handle technology.  This separation of responsibilities is likely to create headache upon headache for both sides.  When a Yahoo client is unhappy with the technology execution, will Yahoo salespeople call Microsoft engineers to complain?  When Microsoft is unhappy with the way Yahoo is selling search, will Microsoft’s engineers call Yahoo to complain?  When the combination misses targets, will investors call Microsoft or Yahoo to complain? (Both?) When Microsoft licenses Bing to Ask or AOL, will Yahoo’s salespeople sell premium search for those companies, too?  What if Ask and AOL are unhappy?  Who will they call to complain?

In our opinion, sales and technology are way too tightly linked in this business to split responsibilities between two huge companies that each have other things to worry about.  We think the execution of the deal will be a nightmare.

yahoo and microsoftSee Also:  First Take On


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Google Launching OS

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Eric Schmidt, GoogleGoogle Launching OS, Firing Torpedo Into Microsoft (And Apple) Hold (MSFT, GOOG, AAPL)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

Google will launch its own operating system in the second half of next year, finally launching a direct assault on Microsoft’s crown jewel.

(It has been headed here in all but name for the past two years.  But last night it finally declared war.)

The OS will initially be targeted to netbooks, then broadened to all PCs.  It will be a combination of a Google Chrome browser and a Linux kernel.  It will be a different project than Android.  It will be designed to be simple and fast.  It will also, presumably, be free.

Google’s blog post announcing the browser is below.  A few points:

A year of development is a long time, and it shows how complex an undertaking this will be.  Announcing the product a year early is also a major break with Google tradition and shows how much Google needs help from partners in this endeavor to be successful.  (An OS that is distributed only by downloads won’t work.  It needs to come loaded on the machine.  This has been the big problem with Chrome so far, and Google needs to address it.)

Success is far from guaranteed.  Google’s browser initiative, Chrome, has been a fun little science project, but as a product it has been a flop.  The same can be said for almost all of Google’s non-search products.  If Google wants to have a chance at success in this business, it needs to focus on it with the same intensity it once put into search.  This will be challenging for Google, which, for the last several years, has had the luxury of dabbling in whatever it pleases.

Assuming the OS is free to both users and OEM PC makers, Microsoft will need to soup up the free version of its own Windows 7 OS for netbooks (right now, Microsoft’s plan is to ship a crappy free version of 7 and try to get users to upgrade.  Eventually, if Google starts to gain traction, Microsoft may need to panic.)

This is classic disruption.  Disruptive technologies do not immediately replace existing technologies because they are better.  In fact, in the beginning, they are worse.  They’re just…
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Zero Hedge

Three Shot In Times Square Including Four-Year-Old Girl

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

New York's Times Square was temporarily cordoned off on Saturday after at least three people were injured in a shooting, according to NBC News, citing police. The suspect, pictured below, was caught on camera.

Earlier today, 3 people were shot in @TimesSquareNYC, including a 4-year-old child.

Help your @NYPDDetectives identify the man pictured below — they want to talk him about the incident.

Call...



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Phil's Favorites

How big is this crypto boom?

 

How big is this crypto boom?

Courtesy of John Hempton, Bronte Capital

Google Trends doesn't predict stock market rallies, well somtimes it does. But more likely it is coincident with them, the suckers at the end of the boom being the biggest (yet) wave of retail buyers.

Here is a five year trend for the phrase "how to buy stocks" for the USA.

 

It has two peaks, one at the height of t...



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Digital Currencies

How big is this crypto boom?

 

How big is this crypto boom?

Courtesy of John Hempton, Bronte Capital

Google Trends doesn't predict stock market rallies, well somtimes it does. But more likely it is coincident with them, the suckers at the end of the boom being the biggest (yet) wave of retail buyers.

Here is a five year trend for the phrase "how to buy stocks" for the USA.

 

It has two peaks, one at the height of t...



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Biotech/COVID-19

India COVID crisis: four reasons it will derail the world economy

 

India COVID crisis: four reasons it will derail the world economy

India is the fifth largest economy in the world. Deepak Choudhary/Unsplash

Courtesy of Uma S Kambhampati, University of Reading

The second wave of the pandemic has struck India with a devastating impact. With over 300,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths across the country each day at present, the total number of deaths has just passed the 200,000 mark – that’s about one in 16 of all COVID deaths across the world....



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Chart School

Yellen can not stop the dollar decline

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Printing money results in a lower currency, so long as the currency does not fall too fast.

Previous Post: US Dollar Forecast - Weakness

Here are the very strong fundamentals for a lower US dollar: 

(a) US inflation exploding.
(b) Massive US twin deficits.
(c) Better conditions in Europe.

However French election worries in 2022 Q1 and Q2 may provide US dollar strength (via European weakness) after Christmas, but this strength may come after a low in the DXY near $84.  

It looks like Yellen knows a down swing in the US dollar is near because ...

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Politics

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

 

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Over the past few decades, hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens have become part of the middle class. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

China’s large and impressive accomplishments over the past four decades have spurred scholars and politicians to debate whether the decline of the West – including the ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.