Posts Tagged ‘Online’

Apple Delivers Monster Quarter, Blows Away Whispers

LIVE ANALYSIS: Apple Delivers Monster Quarter, Blows Away Whispers (AAPL)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

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Press release out…

HUGE quarter.  Revenue of $9.9 billion blows away whisper of $9.4 billion. EPS of $1.82 blows away whispers of $1.65-ish.

iPhone sales of 7.4 million in-line with estimates despite supply constraints.  Mac sales huge.  iPod sales not as bad as many had feared.

Upside appears to have come from Macs and margins.  The Mac resurgence is great news.  This business had stalled, and Apple has a huge opportunity to gain share in the PC market.

December guidance comically conservative, but not alarming. 

Overall: Wow.  Apple is on its way to becoming the defacto platform standard in mobile.  And the crumbling of Microsoft’s Windows monopoly has opened a huge window on the desktop.  The company is galloping after both opportunities.

Conference call will begin at 5PM/2PM.  Here’s the link: www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq409/   We’ll be covering it live.

CONFERENCE CALL NOTES:

5:00: Waiting for call to begin…

5:04: Call starts.  Preamble crap.

5:06: "Extremely pleased."  (Understandably.)   Revenue up 25%.  Operating margin highest ever: 22%. Adjusted numbers huge, too.

5:07: Macs.  3.05 million, up 17%  Biggest ever by 440k.  Growing faster than market 19 of last 20 quarters.  Best user experience.  17% growth compares to 2% market growth = huge market share gain.  laptops 74% of mix and all of the growth.  Successful back-to-school.  12% growth to education.  50,000 Macbooks to Maine (lucky bastards).  3-4 weeks inventory at beginning and end of quarter.

5:10: iPods.  10.2 million, down from 11 million.  iPod touch up 100% y/y, driven by back to school and App store.  Share of US market still over 70%.  Top-selling and continued to gain share year over year.  Began and ended with 4-6 weeks of inventory.  iTunes another great quarter.  Largest music retailer, 11 million songs, 7500 movies.

5:11: iPhones.  7.4 million, up 7% (last year had 2mm inventory build).  Sell-through up 38%.  Widened lead in customer satisfaction.  Start selling in China end of this month.  Also expanding carrier relationship in UK and Canada.  App Store: 500 million downloads in quarter.  $2.3 billion in quarter.

5:13: Stores.  $1.87 billion, vs $1.72 billion.  670,000 Macs vs. 576,000. 


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Microsoft-Yahoo Deal A Logistical And Regulatory Nightmare

Microsoft-Yahoo Deal A Logistical And Regulatory Nightmare

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

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The official details of the Microsoft-Yahoo deal aren’t much different than the leaks we reported last night. 

Here’s our take: 

  • The deal is significantly worse than expected for Yahoo, as the company will get no money upfront. 
  • The deal is positive for Microsoft, but largely because Microsoft was nowhere in search without it.  Saving the upfront payment is also a help.
  • Ironically, the deal will likely be positive for Google, which will now likely benefit from months of purgatory as Microsoft and Yahoo work to clear regulatory scrutiny and then go through the massive challenge of trying to integrate their sales forces and technology.   Google itself will also now be able to argue persuasively that there is a big, viable (if discombobulated) competitor in the market.

Conceptually, the idea of Microsoft and Yahoo combining forces is smart.  Neither alone has enough share of the search market to be a "must buy," and search relevance and pricing improves with scale.  Both companies would likely just continue to lose share ad infinitum without a deal, so they have little to lose by working together.  And Yahoo will gain some cost savings, at least for a while.

That said, we think the structure of the deal could end up being a disaster.

The deal calls for Yahoo to handle sales and Microsoft to handle technology.  This separation of responsibilities is likely to create headache upon headache for both sides.  When a Yahoo client is unhappy with the technology execution, will Yahoo salespeople call Microsoft engineers to complain?  When Microsoft is unhappy with the way Yahoo is selling search, will Microsoft’s engineers call Yahoo to complain?  When the combination misses targets, will investors call Microsoft or Yahoo to complain? (Both?) When Microsoft licenses Bing to Ask or AOL, will Yahoo’s salespeople sell premium search for those companies, too?  What if Ask and AOL are unhappy?  Who will they call to complain?

In our opinion, sales and technology are way too tightly linked in this business to split responsibilities between two huge companies that each have other things to worry about.  We think the execution of the deal will be a nightmare.

yahoo and microsoftSee Also:  First Take On


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Google Launching OS

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Eric Schmidt, GoogleGoogle Launching OS, Firing Torpedo Into Microsoft (And Apple) Hold (MSFT, GOOG, AAPL)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

Google will launch its own operating system in the second half of next year, finally launching a direct assault on Microsoft’s crown jewel.

(It has been headed here in all but name for the past two years.  But last night it finally declared war.)

The OS will initially be targeted to netbooks, then broadened to all PCs.  It will be a combination of a Google Chrome browser and a Linux kernel.  It will be a different project than Android.  It will be designed to be simple and fast.  It will also, presumably, be free.

Google’s blog post announcing the browser is below.  A few points:

A year of development is a long time, and it shows how complex an undertaking this will be.  Announcing the product a year early is also a major break with Google tradition and shows how much Google needs help from partners in this endeavor to be successful.  (An OS that is distributed only by downloads won’t work.  It needs to come loaded on the machine.  This has been the big problem with Chrome so far, and Google needs to address it.)

Success is far from guaranteed.  Google’s browser initiative, Chrome, has been a fun little science project, but as a product it has been a flop.  The same can be said for almost all of Google’s non-search products.  If Google wants to have a chance at success in this business, it needs to focus on it with the same intensity it once put into search.  This will be challenging for Google, which, for the last several years, has had the luxury of dabbling in whatever it pleases.

Assuming the OS is free to both users and OEM PC makers, Microsoft will need to soup up the free version of its own Windows 7 OS for netbooks (right now, Microsoft’s plan is to ship a crappy free version of 7 and try to get users to upgrade.  Eventually, if Google starts to gain traction, Microsoft may need to panic.)

This is classic disruption.  Disruptive technologies do not immediately replace existing technologies because they are better.  In fact, in the beginning, they are worse.  They’re just…
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Zero Hedge

This Is What Happens Behind Closed Doors When U.S. Presidents Meet With Fed Chairs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last week, Donald Trump ventured into what until recently was uncharted, for US presidents, territory.

First, during a CNBC interview, the president went so far as to say that the strong dollar "puts us at a disadvantage" then went on to do what so many consider anathema, and said he is "not thrilled" about the Fed rising rates "because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again."

One day later, Trump doubled down, ...



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Phil's Favorites

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

Theory Time

Thom Hartmann suggests that the Manchurian Candidate theory is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in ...



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Insider Scoop

BofA Points To Yum China's Earnings Downside Risk In Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 31 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 20, 2018 ...

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Chart School

Small Caps Enjoy Best of Action

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn't a whole lot going on today except Small Caps were able to attract some buyers despite finishing below resistance; bulls have been taking advantage of the 20-day MA test. Today's action coincided with 'buy' signals in the MACD and +DI/-DI.


The S&P held its breakout and today's losses - despite higher volume selling - didn't do a whole lot of damage.

...

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Digital Currencies

Citadel CEO Says Bitcoin Still A "Head Scratcher" But Billionaire Lasry Sees $40,000 Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Ken Griffin, the CEO and founder of the Citadel hedge fund, has reiterated his negative stance on Bitcoin (BTC) in an interview with CNBC this morning.

Speaking at the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York, ...



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Biotech

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Bright sun and fatty foods are a bad recipe for your DNA. By Tish1/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Adam Barsouk, University of Pittsburgh

Today, your body will accumulate quadrillions of new injuries in your DNA. The constant onslaught of many forms of damage, some of which permanently...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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