Posts Tagged ‘Online’

Apple Delivers Monster Quarter, Blows Away Whispers

LIVE ANALYSIS: Apple Delivers Monster Quarter, Blows Away Whispers (AAPL)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

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Press release out…

HUGE quarter.  Revenue of $9.9 billion blows away whisper of $9.4 billion. EPS of $1.82 blows away whispers of $1.65-ish.

iPhone sales of 7.4 million in-line with estimates despite supply constraints.  Mac sales huge.  iPod sales not as bad as many had feared.

Upside appears to have come from Macs and margins.  The Mac resurgence is great news.  This business had stalled, and Apple has a huge opportunity to gain share in the PC market.

December guidance comically conservative, but not alarming. 

Overall: Wow.  Apple is on its way to becoming the defacto platform standard in mobile.  And the crumbling of Microsoft’s Windows monopoly has opened a huge window on the desktop.  The company is galloping after both opportunities.

Conference call will begin at 5PM/2PM.  Here’s the link: www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq409/   We’ll be covering it live.

CONFERENCE CALL NOTES:

5:00: Waiting for call to begin…

5:04: Call starts.  Preamble crap.

5:06: "Extremely pleased."  (Understandably.)   Revenue up 25%.  Operating margin highest ever: 22%. Adjusted numbers huge, too.

5:07: Macs.  3.05 million, up 17%  Biggest ever by 440k.  Growing faster than market 19 of last 20 quarters.  Best user experience.  17% growth compares to 2% market growth = huge market share gain.  laptops 74% of mix and all of the growth.  Successful back-to-school.  12% growth to education.  50,000 Macbooks to Maine (lucky bastards).  3-4 weeks inventory at beginning and end of quarter.

5:10: iPods.  10.2 million, down from 11 million.  iPod touch up 100% y/y, driven by back to school and App store.  Share of US market still over 70%.  Top-selling and continued to gain share year over year.  Began and ended with 4-6 weeks of inventory.  iTunes another great quarter.  Largest music retailer, 11 million songs, 7500 movies.

5:11: iPhones.  7.4 million, up 7% (last year had 2mm inventory build).  Sell-through up 38%.  Widened lead in customer satisfaction.  Start selling in China end of this month.  Also expanding carrier relationship in UK and Canada.  App Store: 500 million downloads in quarter.  $2.3 billion in quarter.

5:13: Stores.  $1.87 billion, vs $1.72 billion.  670,000 Macs vs. 576,000. 


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Microsoft-Yahoo Deal A Logistical And Regulatory Nightmare

Microsoft-Yahoo Deal A Logistical And Regulatory Nightmare

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

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The official details of the Microsoft-Yahoo deal aren’t much different than the leaks we reported last night. 

Here’s our take: 

  • The deal is significantly worse than expected for Yahoo, as the company will get no money upfront. 
  • The deal is positive for Microsoft, but largely because Microsoft was nowhere in search without it.  Saving the upfront payment is also a help.
  • Ironically, the deal will likely be positive for Google, which will now likely benefit from months of purgatory as Microsoft and Yahoo work to clear regulatory scrutiny and then go through the massive challenge of trying to integrate their sales forces and technology.   Google itself will also now be able to argue persuasively that there is a big, viable (if discombobulated) competitor in the market.

Conceptually, the idea of Microsoft and Yahoo combining forces is smart.  Neither alone has enough share of the search market to be a "must buy," and search relevance and pricing improves with scale.  Both companies would likely just continue to lose share ad infinitum without a deal, so they have little to lose by working together.  And Yahoo will gain some cost savings, at least for a while.

That said, we think the structure of the deal could end up being a disaster.

The deal calls for Yahoo to handle sales and Microsoft to handle technology.  This separation of responsibilities is likely to create headache upon headache for both sides.  When a Yahoo client is unhappy with the technology execution, will Yahoo salespeople call Microsoft engineers to complain?  When Microsoft is unhappy with the way Yahoo is selling search, will Microsoft’s engineers call Yahoo to complain?  When the combination misses targets, will investors call Microsoft or Yahoo to complain? (Both?) When Microsoft licenses Bing to Ask or AOL, will Yahoo’s salespeople sell premium search for those companies, too?  What if Ask and AOL are unhappy?  Who will they call to complain?

In our opinion, sales and technology are way too tightly linked in this business to split responsibilities between two huge companies that each have other things to worry about.  We think the execution of the deal will be a nightmare.

yahoo and microsoftSee Also:  First Take On


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Google Launching OS

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Eric Schmidt, GoogleGoogle Launching OS, Firing Torpedo Into Microsoft (And Apple) Hold (MSFT, GOOG, AAPL)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

Google will launch its own operating system in the second half of next year, finally launching a direct assault on Microsoft’s crown jewel.

(It has been headed here in all but name for the past two years.  But last night it finally declared war.)

The OS will initially be targeted to netbooks, then broadened to all PCs.  It will be a combination of a Google Chrome browser and a Linux kernel.  It will be a different project than Android.  It will be designed to be simple and fast.  It will also, presumably, be free.

Google’s blog post announcing the browser is below.  A few points:

A year of development is a long time, and it shows how complex an undertaking this will be.  Announcing the product a year early is also a major break with Google tradition and shows how much Google needs help from partners in this endeavor to be successful.  (An OS that is distributed only by downloads won’t work.  It needs to come loaded on the machine.  This has been the big problem with Chrome so far, and Google needs to address it.)

Success is far from guaranteed.  Google’s browser initiative, Chrome, has been a fun little science project, but as a product it has been a flop.  The same can be said for almost all of Google’s non-search products.  If Google wants to have a chance at success in this business, it needs to focus on it with the same intensity it once put into search.  This will be challenging for Google, which, for the last several years, has had the luxury of dabbling in whatever it pleases.

Assuming the OS is free to both users and OEM PC makers, Microsoft will need to soup up the free version of its own Windows 7 OS for netbooks (right now, Microsoft’s plan is to ship a crappy free version of 7 and try to get users to upgrade.  Eventually, if Google starts to gain traction, Microsoft may need to panic.)

This is classic disruption.  Disruptive technologies do not immediately replace existing technologies because they are better.  In fact, in the beginning, they are worse.  They’re just…
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Phil's Favorites

Stream On '22

 

Stream On ’22

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

Two weeks ago, at the Code Conference, Endeavor CEO Ari Emanuel claimed “the total addressable market of content is infinite.” Netflix is spending $17 billion a year to validate his thesis. So far, they’re both right. Since last Friday, Netflix raised subscription prices in 11 countries by as much as 40%. A company’s ability to raise prices is a function of the delta between the price and the perceived value. Nothing better illuminates this delta than the below chart:

Glocal

Squid Game was sourced, written, and produced in South Korea. Within 10 days of its rele...



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Zero Hedge

Notorious Haitian Gang Demands $17 Million Ransom For Kidnapped Missionaries

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A local gang that days ago kidnapped a group of 17 American and Canadian missionaries in Haiti, among them children, is demanding a $17 million ransom to obtain their release, or $1 million for each person.

Since the Saturday kidnapping which drove world headlines, the group has been identified as the powerful and noto...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook Chooses Coinbase As "Custody Partner" For Digital Wallet Ahead Of Stablecoin Launch


Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

With crypto markets in the green and equities still riding high on their latest comeback rally, Coinbase has just dropped a bombshell update about Facebook's great attempt to seize control of the global monetary supply (or at least a slice of it) thanks to its nearly 3 billion monthly users who would have immediate access to whatever monetization options they...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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