Posts Tagged ‘organic growth’

IS THE RECOVERY BUILT ON QUICKSAND?

IS THE RECOVERY BUILT ON QUICKSAND?

IS THE RECOVERY BUILT ON QUICKSAND?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

For the first time in months, the foundation of the 50% rally is being called into question.  There is no doubt that the March bottom in the stock market was largely driven by government intervention.  What the government was relying on with this plan, however, was that they could buy enough time to get the consumer back on their feet.   Recent data, however, is beginning to show signs that the consumer is just as weak as they’ve ever been and showing little to no signs of recovery.

As we’ve been quick to point out, the real underlying components of this recovery have been questionable at best.  Rail data continues to come in incredibly weak, retail sales have shown almost no signs of recovery and corporate earnings have shown no signs of organic growth (i.e., the no revenue recovery).  Governments around the world are running short on time as global stimulus plans begin to lose their gusto heading into Q3 & Q4 of 2009.

The most alarming government intervention has not been in the U.S., however.  China, one of the primary drivers of the global recovery, could be building a recovery on quicksand.  Deloitte is out with a recent report detailing this intervention and the potential unsustainability of the government induced recovery:

Though the economy is forecast to grow above 8 percent in 2009 — it is likely to happen — there are significant vulnerabilities in the system. Much of the growth is being driven by the state and very little by consumers. For any sustained recovery, and because external markets still remain weak, domestic consumers must eventually become center stage in the recovery process, something yet to happen. Though car sales are up significantly, the high number is because of the base effect as well as government subsidies — it means car sales will falter sooner or later. Large swathes of migrant workers lost their jobs (they don’t show up in official unemployment statistics) and haven’t found new ones; the retail sector is at risk once subsidies on appliances are withdrawn.

As I type, Asian stock markets are all down 3%+.  U.S. stock futures are down 1%.   The so called “recovery” has been powerful thus far, but will almost certainly sink beneath the…
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Phil's Favorites

Why hearsay isn't a problem for Congress in impeachment hearings

 

Why hearsay isn't a problem for Congress in impeachment hearings

I heard him saying… ASDF_MEDIA/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James Steiner-Dillon, University of Dayton

Wednesday’s testimony by U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland included the allegation that Sondland pushed Ukraine to investigate the Biden family in exchange for U.S. political support at the “...



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Zero Hedge

"It's Not Sustainable:" PG&E Rolling Blackouts To Hit 181,000 Customers Wednesday 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Seriously, every time the wind blows in California, it transforms into a third world country with rolling blackouts. And if you've ever been to let's say South America where this happens frequently, it's not a pleasant thing to experience. 

So Californians will get another taste of what it's like to live in Venezuela or Argentina on Wednesday. Nearly 181,00 customers in Northern California on early Wednesday will see their power cutoff so that Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) can avoid sparking another deadly wildfire. 

...



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Insider Scoop

GM Sues Fiat Chrysler, Alleges Racketeering And Corruption In UAW Negotiations

Courtesy of Benzinga

General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) is suing rival Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (NYSE: FCAU), alleging Fiat executives bribed union officials to gain an advantage over GM in how its contracts were structured.

The alleged corruption has also been the focus of a federal criminal probe into Fiat Chrysler and the Unit...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

New York Stock Exchange Double Topping or Sending A Strong Bullish Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

A very broad index is testing last year’s highs, as monthly momentum is creating lower highs? Which indicator is more important, price or momentum?

This chart looks at the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYSE) on a monthly basis over the past 15-years.

The index peaked in January of 2018, as momentum was the highest since the peak in 2007.

The rally off the lows around Christmas last year, has the index testing the highs of January 2018. While the rally has taken place over the past 12-months, lofty momentum has created a series of lower highs.

Can you believe th...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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