Posts Tagged ‘Paolo Pellegrini’

Breaking Stuff

Breaking Stuff

Courtesy Adam Warner at Daily Options Review 

Breaking news on CNBC! This, from Clusterstock.

According to CNBC’s Steve Liesman, the SEC has evidence that contradicts its own argument that ACA was mislead on the nature of John Paulson’s intent.

Specifically, in interviewing Paulson lieutenant Paolo Pellegrini, ACA was informed that Paulson intended to go short the CDO.

Not surprisingly, this was left out of the SEC complaint.

The SEC really needs to answer for this.

Remember always, this is a PR fight. Certainly at this juncture. And in any PR fight, you want to get your story out as if it’s not from you, but channeled through some independent "news" source. CNBC could not provide a better venue. They’re naturally sympathetic to your side to begin with, and they’ll funnel any "news" you want through their mouth’s. And Clusterstock….well, judge on your own, all I’ll say is they rarely meet an attack on Goldman that they don’t seek to diminish.

Look, this might be an accurate account, the SEC is certainly not above reproach, to say the least. But it just reads like a calculated PR offensive. Paulson’s lietenent saying ACA knew? Is he exactly unimpeachable? Doesn’t he have every incentive in the world to just say this? He can easily couch that as his understanding, that ACA was informed. Perhaps Fall Guy Fab forgot to tell ACA, we don’t know, neither does Paulo.

Here’s another way to look at it. The SEC has this info, it it becomes demonstrable fact that ACA knew Paulson was shorting it, it clearly destroys their case. Whatever SEC’s motivations are here, they’re not bringing a case out that will get shot down that simply. So I suspect the "ACA Knew" defense is a "he said, she said" thing. You can’t prove a negative, i.e., you can’t prove ACA didn’t know. But you can prove they did know if there’s some evidence that shows they were informed. Perhaps that evidence is out there, but I don’t believe "Paolo Says So" is that evidence. 

*****

Adam’s follow-up
continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




Goldman Sachs (GS) VP Email Jan 2007: “The whole building is about to collapse anytime now.”

Goldman Sachs (GS) VP Email Jan 2007: "The whole building is about to collapse anytime now."

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

I have no idea the implication but for those of you around a decade ago you know what this parallels… Eliot Spitzer made his career on almost the same exact thing a decade ago.  Investment banks bringing product (IPOs) public, their analysts cheerleading the stocks to the public while writing internal emails about how the companies were complete trash.

Well this London based VP looks like the sacrificial lamb.

  • The suit also named Fabrice Tourre, a vice president at Goldman who helped create and sell the investment

As usual the snake oil never really changes… but in the past the snake oil salesmen would be run out of town.  Now they are protected by government, backstopepd by our Federal reserve, and glorified.  We’ve really evolved as a society :)

  • According to the complaint, Goldman created Abacus 2007-AC1 in February 2007, at the request of John Paulson, a prominent hedge fund manager who earned an estimated $3.7 billion in 2007 by correctly wagering that the housing bubble would burst.
  • Goldman let Mr. Paulson select mortgage bonds that he wanted to bet against — the ones he believed were most likely to lose value — and packaged those bonds into Abacus 2007-AC1, according to the S.E.C. complaint. Goldman then sold the Abacus deal to investors like foreign banks, pension funds, insurance companies and other hedge funds.
  • But the deck was stacked against the Abacus investors, the complaint contends, because the investment was filled with bonds chosen by Mr. Paulson as likely to defaultGoldman told investors in Abacus marketing materials reviewed by The Times that the bonds would be chosen by an independent manager.

———————————

Fascinating to see John Paulson’s firm involved as well – I don’t see any wrong doing on his part but apparently one of his former lieutenants, Paolo Pellegrini was the ‘snitch’. [Oct 2, 2009: Paolo Pellegrini, Formely of John Paulson's Hedge Fund, on Bloomberg]

Full pdf file of SEC complaint here.

p.s. bought some SPY puts to get some hedging going on.


Tags: , , , , , , , ,




GURU OUTLOOK: PAOLO PELLEGRINI

GURU OUTLOOK: PAOLO PELLEGRINI

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

This week’s Guru Outlook brings you Paolo Pellegrini.  Although he is not the most well known of investment gurus Pellegrini has built quite a name for himself in recent years.  Before founding his own hedge fund PSQR (a play on PP Squared) Pellegrini was John Paulson’s right hand man at Paulson and Co (see Paulson’s guru outlook here & most recent strategy comments here).  Of course, Paulson and Co. made waves during the sub-prime crisis when they made billions shorting the market during the crisis.  Pellegrini was instrumental in devising the strategy.  Like Paulson, however, Pellegrini wasn’t a one trick, short the market, pony.  In 2009 he crushed the market with a 61.6% return in his fund after he made big bets on a rising oil market and a tanking treasury market.

So where does Pellegrini see the market going now?  In a recent letter to shareholders he said:

“the structural problems that precipitated the Great Recession around the globe remain unresolved”

He says we are essentially papering over the problems with more debt.  We are simply adding more debt to a debt-laden world while China adds more exports to a saturated market.  He says the problems in Europe are a harbinger of these continuing issues.   Thus far the massive stimulus has been successful in jumpstarting the global economy, but is nothing more than a temporary respite from the longer-term structural problems that remain.

Pellegrini’s favorite trades in 2010 are the following four:

  • Short US fixed income
  • Short US equities
  • Short US dollar
  • Long commodities

The short trade on fixed income is a reflection of the likelihood for higher yields as investors grow increasingly fearful of the U.S. as a steward of its debt.  Pellegrini believes demand for treasuries will decrease in the coming years.

In terms of equities Pellegrini says valuations are becoming stretched as organic growth fails to match expectations. He also believes higher taxes could ultimately be a net negative for equities.

Pellegrini is short the dollar based on the expectation of more stimulus.  He predicts that policymakers will come back to the taxpayer asking for another handout as they explain their first stimulus plan was not a failure, but simply too small.  He says the dollar will “plunge” if this occurs.

The one sector of the market Pellegrini likes is commodities.  He says they…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




ANEMIC REAL RETURNS ON STOCKS AHEAD

ANEMIC REAL RETURNS ON STOCKS AHEAD

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Excellent interview with Paolo Pellegrini here from  Bloomberg:

 

 


Tags: ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Renewables Not So Reliable As US Hydropower Plunges 14%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The transition away from hydrocarbons is not a seamless as many hope. The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows a significant decline this year in hydropower generation amid historic droughts. 

The magical thinking about renewable energy and President Biden's calls for the U.S. power grid to be 100% clean by 2035 is a pipe dream. 

...

more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Facebook Inc. New Employee Manual

 

Facebook Inc. New Employee Manual

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

I wrote this two and a half years ago, and believe it still lands.

[The following was originally published on May 31, 2019.]

Sociobook

There’s a firm that’s grown faster than any firm to date. Its founder also set the DNA of the firm, but without the benefit of the modulation and self-awareness that come with age. It’s in a sector where network effects created a handful ...



more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

China Declares All Virtual Currency Transactions "Illegal", Sending Crypto Prices Tumbling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

China expanded its escalating crackdown on cryptocurrencies on Friday when its central bank declared that all activities related to digital coins are “illegal” and must be banned.

In a statement dated Sept. 15 but was only posted onto the central bank’s website at 5 p.m. local time on Friday, the People’s Bank of China said the latest notice was to further prevent the risks surrounding crypto trading and to maintain national security and social stability.

Naming bitcoin, ether and tether as examples, the centra...



more from Bitcoin

Politics

'What Betrayal Looks Like': UN Report Says World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming by 2100

 

?

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

'What Betrayal Looks Like': UN Report Says World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming by 2100

"Whatever our so-called 'leaders' are doing," said Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, "they are doing it wrong."

By Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

The United Nations warned Friday ...



more from Politics

Biotech/COVID-19

FDA panel recommends limiting Pfizer booster shots to Americans 65 and older, and those at high risk of severe COVID-19

 

FDA panel recommends limiting Pfizer booster shots to Americans 65 and older, and those at high risk of severe COVID-19

No third dose for now. AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

Courtesy of Matthew Woodruff, Emory University

The key scientific advisory council of the Food and Drug Administration has voted to deny authorization of...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

Gold and Silver Volume Waves Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The sign says it all. The professionals want the public to focus on the words, to scare out the weak hands, but the color of the sign underlines the value in a money printing world, its gold stupid.

Point and figure (PnF) charts draw price waves with the sum of volume per wave. PnF charts high light true accumulation underneath price action. This is why Richard Wyckoff favored PnF charts.    

In the charts below we see price moving sideways to down, yet volume on up waves are greater than volume on down waves. At the moment there is no heavy selling on down waves. Or in other words price is being moved down at a low volume expense to allow accumulation at a lower price.

This action represents professionals building their...

more from Chart School

Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.