Posts Tagged ‘PBoC’

Beijing is not Washington’s banker

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns agrees with Michael Pettis that China is not "bankrolling" the US government and will not stop buying US assets. – Ilene 

Beijing is not Washington’s banker

China's 60th National Day Celebration

Courtesy of Edward Harrison 

Michael Pettis really gets at the heart of the fallacious argument that China is somehow bankrolling the United States government. The fact is the Chinese have fixed their currency at an exchange rate which induces a current account surplus with the U.S. and…

If China runs a current account surplus, it must accumulate net foreign claims by exactly that amount, and the entity against which it accumulates those claims (adjusting for actions by other players within the balance of payments) ultimately must run the corresponding current account deficit.  And as long as China ran the largest current account surplus ever recorded as a share of global GDP, and the US the largest current account deficit ever recorded, and especially since China also ran an additional capital account surplus (i.e. other non-PBoC agents ran a net capital inflow), it was almost impossible for the PBoC to do anything but buy US dollar assets.  Given the sheer amounts, a substantial portion of these assets had inevitably to be USG bonds.

This was not a discretionary lending decision.  It is the automatic consequence of China’s currency regime, in which it pegs the RMB to a foreign currency, in this case the dollar.  Why?  Because when the PBoC decides on the level of the RMB against the dollar, it does not do so by passing a law, and making it a capital crime for anyone to trade at a different price.  What it does is far simpler.  It offers to buy or sell unlimited amounts of RMB against the dollar at the desired price.

No one will sell dollars for less than what they can get from the PBoC, nor will anyone buy dollars for more than what they can pay the PBoC, so all transactions get done at that price.  That is how the PBoC (or any other central bank that intervenes in the currency market) sets the foreign exchange value of its own currency.

This means that as long as it wants to set the exchange rate, then, it must take the opposite position of the market.  Since the rest of the market is a net seller of dollars (China runs a current and capital account


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What the PBoC cannot do with its reserves

What the PBoC cannot do with its reserves

GREAT WALL OF CHINA BADALING BEIJING CHINA

Courtesy of Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets 

It is a real toss-up as to which generates more bizarre comment in the international press: Beijing’s long-feared dumping of US Treasuries, or the use and value of the PBoC’s central bank reserves.  The revelation last week that Chinese holdings of US Treasury obligations fell in December by $34.2 billion, to $755.4 billion, generated a frisson of fear and excitement, leading one prominent newspaper to worry that “If there is one thing that gets investors twitchy, it is the fear that China is losing its appetite for US government bonds.”

And shouldn’t they get twitchy?  After all this reduction in Chinese holdings of Treasury bonds comes from the USG’s TIC data, so it must be true that China is dumping dollars, right?

No need to twitch, it means no such thing.  First of all, the data from which this was derived indicates national ownership of USG bonds only to the extent that foreigners are directly registered holders.  It says nothing about what happened to the large amount of bonds held by the PBoC and other Chinese investors indirectly or in street names. Those could have easily gone up by more than the reduction in bonds directly held by Chinese investors in their own name.  If the PBoC had let maturing Treasury bonds get repaid, for example, and reinvested the proceeds into the USG bond market through another account, or in a street name, its total holdings would have actually increased even though its registered holdings would have declined.

More importantly, the TIC numbers completely fail to disclose whether China’s reduced holding of USG bonds was matched by increased holding of other dollar assets, thereby increasing the pool of capital available to fund USG bonds by an amount equal to its reduced Treasury holdings.  If Chinese investors decide to take on more risk, for example, they might sell USG bonds and use the proceeds to buy corporate bonds.  Of course the seller of these corporate bonds will then have cash, which must be put to work, and ultimately this ends up back in the USG bond market.

China did not reduce its dollar holdings

So was China a net seller of dollar assets in December?  Almost certainly not.  Just look at the PBoC balance sheet.  PBoC reserves rose in December by


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Zero Hedge

Supreme Court Saves Obamacare Again After GOP Challenge Rejected

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a GOP challenge to Obamacare, upholding the Affordable Care Act for the third time.

In a 7-2 decision, the Court found that Texas and 17 other states lack legal standing to sue, as they had not suffered a direct injury, according to the New York Times.

The Justices did not touch on the larger issues in the case, however, namely whether the majority of Obama'...



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Phil's Favorites

Justice Department's Investigation of Dodgy Archegos-Style Accounts at the Wall Street Mega Banks Is Likely the Cause of Plunge in Trading Revenues

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 17, 2021 ~

On May 26 Bloomberg News reported that the U.S. Department of Justice had opened an investigation into Archegos Capital Management and its bank lenders. Archegos is the family office hedge fund that had blown up in late March, causing a total of more than $10 billion in losses to mega banks including Credit Suisse, UBS, Morgan Stanley and others.

Archegos had obtained leverag...



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Chart School

Australia to enter a very sad period - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Lets add some dates to the bearish forecast of the ASX200.

Previous post on the subject and a more detailed Ewave construction can be found here.

SHORT ANSWER

The vertical light red shaded area (chart 1) is the T Theory forecast for the final price top (end of B wave). This period is some where between Nov 2021 and July 2022. This zone is the confluence of equal time cycles as presented on the chart. Notice how this note refers to a extreme price top and not a crash or bear market starting date. Price can consolidate for some time after a extreme high is posted. 


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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Biotech/COVID-19

The FDA's big gamble on the new Alzheimer's drug

 

The FDA's big gamble on the new Alzheimer's drug

Do the benefits of approving a drug before confirming it works outweigh the potential costs? monkeybusinessimages/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of C. Michael White, University of Connecticut

The Food and Drug Administration set off a firestorm of debate when it approved a new drug, aducanumab, for Alzheimer’s disease v...



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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

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Digital Currencies

Crypto: Congress Dawdles as $1.7 Trillion Con-Game Goes Unregulated, Threatening Reputation of U.S. Markets

Courtesy of Pam Martens

If you want to get your hair cut outside of your home in the United States, the job has to be done by a licensed worker at a regulated business. The same thing applies to plumbers, electricians, home inspectors, real estate and insurance agents. They all require a license and are subject to regulatory scrutiny.

Likewise, commodities like corn, sugar, wheat, lumber and oil are all traded on regulated exchanges which are overseen by a federal regulator.

But, for reasons that have yet to be explained to the American people, when it comes to the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency market – which is effectively a con-g...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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