Posts Tagged ‘peak credit’

Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declines, First Drop in a Year; Where to From Here?

Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declines, First Drop in a Year; Where to From Here?

Courtesy of Mish

In yet another sign of a weakening economy, Production in U.S. Unexpectedly Dropped in September

Output at factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since the recession ended in June 2009, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. Factory production also decreased 0.2 percent, reflecting declines in consumer durable goods, like appliances and furniture.

The rebuilding of stockpiles, a component of the factory rebound last year, will probably cool following eight consecutive gains in inventories, a sign assembly lines will not accelerate much more. At the same time, improving demand from overseas and a pickup in business investment on new equipment may keep benefiting American manufacturers like Alcoa Inc., helping support the

Economists forecast production would increase 0.2 percent, according to the median of 63 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decrease of 0.3 percent to a gain of 0.4 percent. The drop followed an unrevised 0.2 percent gain in August.

Industrial Production Release

Inquiring minds are interested in the Industrial Production Release details.

industrial production

Final products and consumer goods were both down for the second consecutive month. With the collapse in housing and the stimulus money pretty much spent, I expect further weakening of all the major market group components.

The only positives in the report this month are mining and business equipment, with the latter weakening rapidly.

Industrial Production

In percentage terms the bounce in industrial production looks impressive. In actual terms it looks pretty feeble.

Note that industrial production collapsed to 1998 lows at the bottom of the recession, taking back an unprecedented 11 years worth of gains. In spite of the huge bounce from the bottom in percentage terms, Industrial production is barely above the level in 2000.

Business Inventories

Note the impressive drop in business inventories. In percentage terms the rebound looks good, but only in percentage terms, not real terms.

Moreover, the important point is that inventory replenishment is nearly over. Looking ahead, production will be more in line with actual final demand, and that demand looks both weak and weakening.

Look for 3rd quarter GDP to surprise to the downside.

Fed is Spooked

I believe this is what has the Fed spooked. Yet, spooked or not, the Demographic Pendulum is in Motion.


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Reluctant Breadwinners, Downsized Housing; Demographic Pendulum in Motion

Reluctant Breadwinners, Downsized Housing; Demographic Pendulum in Motion

Courtesy of Mish 

ITAR-TASS 02: IRKUTSK REGION, RUSSIA. NOVEMBER 30, 2008. Early twentieth century German pendulum clock with a statuette of Mnemosyne, Greek goddess of memory, on display at the Clock Museum, Angarsk, Irkutsk Region, Russia. (Photo ITAR-TASS / Nikolai Ryutin) Photo via Newscom

Because of losses in construction and manufacturing, unemployment has taken its toll on more men than women. Please consider More Wives Head for Work

Angela Patterson is working as an insurance agent in New York while her husband looks for construction jobs in North Carolina. Diana Gomez had been staying home to care for an ill daughter. When her husband lost his job, she became an administrative assistant in a dentist’s office. Michelle, a social worker and mother of three young children in Baltimore, who asked that her last name not be used, switched from part-time to full-time work when her husband was laid off last year. She kept to that schedule after he found work earlier this year—at two-thirds his former salary.

They are the reluctant breadwinners: Women who wanted to stay home until their income suddenly became critical to the well-being of their families. In some cases they are increasing their hours to keep the bills paid. Others are taking up employment for the first time as their husbands struggle to find work. With the anemic recovery keeping the job outlook uncertain, the accelerated gender shift is likely to stick, creating new challenges for U.S. families.

In a study published this September in the journal Family Relations, researchers Marybeth J. Mattingly and Kristin E. Smith of the University of New Hampshire found that wives were more likely to enter the job market or increase their hours when their husbands were out of work between May 2007 and May 2008 than when their husbands were out of work amid prosperity four years earlier. These women were also three times more likely to enter the labor force than women whose husbands were working and 51 percent more likely to increase their hours. Smith says difficult times may push women to take jobs they wouldn’t consider when the economy is strong. "They have to work," she says. "As families lose their primary breadwinner, they’re making ends meet with a lower-earning spouse."

By now, the impact of the recession on the American male is well chronicled: Men accounted for more than 71 percent of the job losses as sectors like manufacturing and construction were crushed. Even when job losses spread to traditionally female-friendly areas like retail and education, women continued to fare better. The


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Zero Hedge

A $30 Billion Computer Is About To Start Selling Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One by one, human traders - having suffered devastating losses in the past 11 months - are giving up hope on stocks, now that BTFD no longer works. And, in a disturbing development, so are the robots.

A $30 billion computer, run by UBS' wealth management which oversees $2.4 trillion in capital and entrusted by some of the world’s richest, is poised to underweight stocks as real money and systematic investors pare risk amid flagging bull-market momentum. According to Andreas Koester, head of global asset allocat...



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Phil's Favorites

The US government has huge debts, and House Democrats could lead the way on solutions - an economist explains how

 

The US government has huge debts, and House Democrats could lead the way on solutions – an economist explains how

Democrat Nancy Pelosi spoke in D.C. the night of the midterm elections. Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

Courtesy of Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Boston University

Now that Democrats control the House, the question on many minds is what they will do with it.

Incoming Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi s...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock Market Correction Lingers As 800 Pound Resistance Levels Hold

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Key stock market indices continue to struggle beneath 800-pound Fibonacci extension levels (resistance).

In today’s “6-pack” chart, we illustrate these key bull/bear lines for investors – see below. The Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 are all experiencing weakness and selling pressure at long-term Fibonacci extension levels each at (1).

But the overhead resistance spreads to other key sectors like the Banks and Semiconductors. The Banks are experiencing weakness at the 2007 highs at (2) and the Semiconductors are experiencing weakness at the 2000 highs at (3).

Expect market weakness (or consolidation) to continue until these stock indexes and key market sectors breakout above resistance. Stay tuned!

6-Pack of Stock Market Indices –...



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Insider Scoop

BTIG Research: Etsy Is Online Leader In Handmade, Artisanal Goods

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ETSY Is Etsy A Better E-Commerce Play Than Amazon? 88 Biggest Movers From Yesterday ...

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Members' Corner

NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEE...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Nov 11, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week was saw another positive move up by bulls – especially in the Dow and S&P 500; the NASDAQ was not quite as enthusiastic.   Wednesday’s rally was on the legs of an election that was seen as market friendly or at least not as bad as it could have been.   Essentially – paying people a lot of money to get nothing done the next 2 years – woo hoo!

The market is interpreting Wedneday’s result as insuring that “no big things will get done,” in Washington between now and 2020, Craig Birk, chief investment officer at Personal Capital told MarketWatch. “The market appreciates the relative certainty of the slow legislative agenda.” he said.

“As President Trump plans his 2020 reelection campaign, a gridlocked Congress is unlik...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern - but it may be a price worth paying

 

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern – but it may be a price worth paying

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Steven Huckle, University of Sussex

Bitcoin recently turned ten years old. In that time, it has proved revolutionary because it ignores the need for modern money’s institutions to verify payments. Instead, Bitcoin relies on cryptographic techniques to prove identity and authenticity.

However, the price to pay for all of this innovation is a high carbon footprint, created by Bitc...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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