Posts Tagged ‘Peter Bernstein’

This Time its Different*

Courtesy of John Mauldin writing at Thoughts From the Frontline

This Time its Different*

I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are “This Time It’s Different.” If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn’t different. It almost never is. And yet – and yet! – I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat. What prompts my probable foolishness to tempt the investing gods is the rather large amount of bad analysis based on unreasonable (dare I say lazy or surface?) readings of statistics that is coming from the mainstream investment media and investment types with their built-in bias for bullish analysis. Normally, gentle reader, your humble analyst is a paragon of moderate sensibilities, but I have been pushed over a mental edge and need to restore balance. I anticipate that this topic will take several weeks, as trying to cover it all in one sitting would exhaust us both. It should be fun. But first…

Peter Bernstein, R.I.P.

Sadly, Peter Bernstein passed away at 90 years young on June 5. One of the great honors and privileges of my life has been getting to know Peter and his lovely wife, Barbara. Introduced at a small dinner five years ago, I have been privileged to share many dinners and meetings with him in the years since, soaking up his wisdom. Only a month ago, he made a presentation (by satellite) to Rob Arnott’s annual conference and was at the top of his intellectual game. His writing of late has been some of his best. Peter cofounded the Journal of Portfolio Management and truly was the dean of investment analysts.

He wrote 10 books (five after the age of 75!). I am often asked what books I would recommend for insight into the economic world. At the very top of my list has always been Against the Gods: the Remarkable Story of Risk. If you have not read it, then get it and put it on top of your summer list. Capital Ideas is also brilliant. The Power of Gold is a must-read. You can get all…
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Phil's Favorites

How Microsoft's Activision Blizzard takeover will drive metaverse gaming into the mass market

 

How Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard takeover will drive metaverse gaming into the mass market

Ready Player 1,000,000,0001? Sergey Nivens

Courtesy of Theo Tzanidis, University of the West of Scotland and Matthew Frew, University of the West of Scotland

Microsoft was positioning itself as one of the pioneers of the metaverse even before its US$75 billion deal to buy online gaming giant...



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Politics

Ukraine got a signed commitment in 1994 to ensure its security - but can the US and allies stop Putin's aggression now?

 

Ukraine got a signed commitment in 1994 to ensure its security – but can the US and allies stop Putin’s aggression now?

A Ukrainian soldier uses a periscope to view the positions of Russian-led forces on Dec. 12, 2021, in Zolote, Ukraine. Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Lee Feinstein, Indiana University and Mariana Budjeryn, Harvard Kennedy School ...



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Zero Hedge

Panasonic Eyes "Mass Production" Of New Battery For Tesla With 20% Higher Range

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Longtime Tesla partner Panasonic looks once again to be slated to produce new lithium-ion batteries for the EV automaker.

The company is going to be entering into "mass production" by 2023 in order to try and keep up with battery makers from China and South Korea. The new Panasonic batteries are expected to boost the range of EVs by 20% by 2023, according to a ...



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ValueWalk

Rowan Street 2021 Year-End Letter

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Rowan Street commentary for the year ended December 31, 2021.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

“Nobody buys a farm based on whether they think its going to rain next year. They buy because they think its a good investment over 10 or 15 years. It’s the same with stocks. Think of stocks as a part ownership of a business. It’s not that complicated.” - Warren Buffett

Dear Partners,

I think we can all agree that since the pandemic started in the beginning of 2020, it has been a very challenging op...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Major Stock Market Indices Reach Critical Impasse!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Today’s chart 4-pack illustrates why the broader stock market has reached a critical juncture this month.

Investors are feeling the heat from recent selling. Why?

Well, as the “monthly” charts above show, the Dow Industrials, Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, and NYSE Composite have reached long-term overhead price resistance.

While the long-term trend is still “up”, it isn’t surprising to see some selling here. That said, bulls worries will go from a correction to a bear market if selling really kicks in to end the month. Just a theory of mine!

Active investors will likely benefit from both caution and patience in the days/weeks ahead. Stay tuned!...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID - new study

 

Here’s where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID – new study

VGstockstudio/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Trish Greenhalgh, University of Oxford; Jose-Luis Jimenez, University of Colorado Boulder; Shelly Miller, University of Col...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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