Posts Tagged ‘PFG Best research’

2009 REVIEW & 2010 PREVIEW

2009 REVIEW & 2010 PREVIEW

Man in car holding road map, smiling, portrait, close-up

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The following is the excellent 2009 review and 2010 preview by PFG Best:

As we approach year-end, I thought it would be helpful to share a quick recap of 2009 and an outlook for 2010.  Feel free to call or email me with any questions: Eaven Horter (ehorter@pfgbest.com).

It’s my belief the main market drivers of 2009 were interest rates and risk aversion.  Let’s first begin with the Federal Funds rate.  The last elongated period of sub-2% interest rates lasted 3 years – from December 2001 to November 2004.  This time period was post-9/11, when our country rebuilt itself in many ways, where low interest rates led to several “asset bubbles” that did indeed end up popping – easy credit and real estate made for a dangerous duo.  We are currently just over a year with the Federal Funds rate under 2%, which dropped below the 2% level in October 2008.  The current rate was set just a year ago – a historical low of 0% to 0.25%.  However, the US economy and global economies are MUCH worse off now then post-9/11.  With this in mind, an easy case can be made that Bernanke’s continued message of an “extended period” of low interest rates is truly not just rhetoric.

An interesting consideration for this current recession and interest rate scenario is how much more interconnected the world economies are now versus earlier in this decade.  What were emerging economies eight years ago are now developing nations, which makes for less of a reliance on larger countries, such as the United States.  An example of this is how the world has moved from a G7/G8 focus to a G20 circle, bringing important players into the global economic decision making process.  With this interconnectedness, especially in relation to the United States, we saw a focus on commentary and policy from Foreign Central Banks and the large effects these had on global markets – just look to interest rate increases in Australia and how that affected the value of the USD and the AUD.

Luckily, some of us have learned from our histories and we’ve now begun to see lawmakers take proactive measures in respect to asset bubbles.  An example would be the


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ValueWalk

The price you pay determines the base earning yield

By Adam Parris. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One advantage of investing in stocks has over investing property is that you can start small with only 1,000 dollars and all without the need to carry the heavy burden of debt.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

But, is starting with such a small amount of money worth it?

Especially if you are not using debt as leverage?

Yes, absolutely.

The Little Bluey Portfolio.

This is the primary purpose of the Little Bluey $1,000 Portfolio.

Along with showing the Share Investors Blueprint members, and prospective members,...



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Phil's Favorites

Riot or resistance? How media frames unrest in Minneapolis will shape public's view of protest

 

Riot or resistance? How media frames unrest in Minneapolis will shape public's view of protest

Protesters outside of a burning Minneapolis police precinct. AP Photo/John Minchillo

Courtesy of Danielle K. Kilgo, Indiana University

A teenager held her phone steady enough to capture the final moments of George Perry Floyd’s life as he apparently suffocated under the weight of a Minneapolis police officer’s knee on his neck. The video went...



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Chart School

Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...

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Zero Hedge

Valuations Point To A Decade Of Anemic Returns Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Joseph Carson, former chief economist of Alliance Bernstein

Macro measures of equity market valuations offer investors a fundamental assessment of the risk-reward ratio in investing at various points in the cycle. Macro equity valuation measures highlight “richness” and “cheapness” in the broad equity market.

History shows that investors who time their entry into the broad equity market at depressed levels of macro valuations far outperform investing strategies that remain fully invested. Current macro valuations indicate a very poor risk-r...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy - and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

 

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy – and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

Antibodies are incredibly good at finding the coronavirus. Antigen tests put them to work. Sergii Iaremenko/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Courtesy of Eugene Wu, University of Richmond

In late February, I fell ill with a fever and a cough. As a biochemist who teaches a class on viruses, I’d been tracking the outbreak of...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the ...



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The Technical Traders

M2 Velocity Collapses - Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

M2 Velocity is the measurement of capital circulating within the economy.  The faster capital circulates within the economy, the more that capital is being deployed within the economy to create output and opportunities for economic growth.  When M2 Velocity contracts, capital is being deployed in investments or assets that prevent that capital from further circulation within the economy – thus preventing further output and opportunity growth features.

The decline in M2 Velocity over the past 10+ years has been dramatic and consistent with the dramatic new zero US Federal Reserve interest rates initiated since just after the 2008 credit crisis market colla...



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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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