Posts Tagged ‘PLCE’

Puts Active On Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF

Today’s tickers: XLY, ITB & PLCE

XLY - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund – Shares in the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund are trading 0.60% lower today at $59.20 as of 12:15 p.m., slipping slightly from an all-time high of $59.90 reached yesterday. A large print in XLY put options during the first hour of the trading session indicates one big player is bracing for the price of the underlying to potentially decline substantially during the next couple of months. It looks like the strategist purchased a block of 31,500 of the Sep $55 strike puts at a premium of $0.41 per contract. The position may be an outright bearish bet on consumer discretionary stocks or may be a hedge to protect the value of a long position in the underlying fund. The bearish trade makes money at expiration if shares in the XLY decline 7.8% from the current price of $59.20 to trade below the breakeven point at $54.59. The XLY last traded below $54.59 at the end of June. All told, upwards of 39,000 of the Sep $55 strike puts changed hands by midday versus open interest of 5,568 contracts.

ITB - iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF – Upside call options are active on the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF today after the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder sentiment increased more than expected in July to the highest level since January of 2006. Shares in the ITB initially rallied on the back of the better than expected homebuilder confidence data, but have since erased those gains to trade down 0.65% on the session at $22.96 as of 11:55 a.m. ET. One or more options traders positioning for shares in the ITB to rally during the next four weeks appear to have purchased upwards of 8,800 calls…
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Bullish Bets On The Rise In Las Vegas Sands Options

 

Today’s tickers: LVS, ARUN & PLCE

LVS - Las Vegas Sands, Inc. – U.S. stocks rebounded this morning on better-than-expected earnings from Hewlett-Packard and AIG released Thursday, and following market-soothing comments from St. Louis Fed Chief, James Bullard, to CNBC’s Squawk Box on Friday morning. Shares in casino resort operator, Las Vegas Sands, joined in on the end-of-week rally, rising as much as 2.5% in the early going to touch $50.32. Heavy trading traffic in May expiry call options this morning suggests some traders are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains during the next few months. The May $52.5 strike calls are seeing the most volume, with more than 21,000 contracts in play versus open interest of 282 contracts as of 11:45 a.m. ET. It looks like most of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $2.04 each. Fresh interest is also building in the May $50 strike calls where roughly 4,700 contracts appear to have been purchased for an average premium of $3.10 apiece. Traders long the May $50 and $52.5 strike calls may profit at expiration should shares in LVS rally approximately 6.0% and 9.0% to exceed average breakeven points at $53.10 and $54.54, respectively. Finally, one or more bullish traders appear to be buying the May $50/$60 call spread for an average net premium of $2.65 per contract. The bull call spread pays off if shares in Las Vegas Sands top the breakeven price of $52.65 by May expiration, with maximum potential profits of $7.35 per contract available if the stock jumps to a record high of $60.00.

ARUN - Aruba Networks, Inc. – Shares in Aruba Networks jumped nearly 30% on Friday morning to a new 52-week high of $26.78 after the provider of enterprise mobility solutions reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and sales, and forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst estimates. A sizable bullish bet initiated on Aruba ahead of the company’s earnings release is paying off for one trader today, as shares sit at their highest level since July…
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Bearish Options In Play As Disney Shares Drop After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, VRA & PLCE

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Just six weeks ago, shares in the operator of the happiest place on earth were hitting fresh all-time highs, peaking at $53.40 in the final week of September, on the heels of an impressive 40% rally since the start of 2012. More recently, however, the stock has been edging down off the September high, sliding roughly 6% ahead of Disney’s fourth-quarter earnings report released after the close on Thursday. Shares in Walt Disney Co. gave up another 5.75% today to trade at $47.17 just before midday on the East Coast after the company posted earnings in line with expectations and sales that missed analyst estimates. The final weeks of 2012 may see shares in Disney continue to pull back by the looks of activity in far out-of-the-money put options expiring in December. Some traders snapped up bearish contracts on DIS that may be profitable if shares slip to their lowest levels since May, purchasing around 1,000 puts at the Dec. $44 strike for an average premium of $0.58 apiece. Like-minded bears picked up roughly 400 puts at the lower Dec. $43 strike for an average of $0.40 apiece, and shelled out $0.29 per contract, on average, to buy more than 425 puts at the Dec. $42 striking price. Traders long the Dec. $42 strike puts stand ready to profit at expiration next month should Disney shares drop 11.5% from the current level to settle below an average breakeven price of $41.71.

VRA - Vera Bradley, Inc. – Fresh interest in Vera Bradley call options this morning suggests some traders are positioning for shares in the maker of handbags and accessories to rally as the 2012 calendar year draws to a close. The stock today trades down 2.5% to stand at $26.20 as of 11:30 a.m. ET. The jump in call activity arrives four weeks ahead of Vera Bradley’s third-quarter earnings report after the closing bell on…
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Takeover Offer Drives Up Volume In Focus Media Options

 

Today’s tickers: FMCN, GME & PLCE

FMCN - Focus Media Holding Ltd. – Shares in the operator of China’s largest lifestyle targeted interactive digital media network jumped 13% to $26.46 on news the company received a preliminary takeover offer of $27.00 per ADR share from a private equity group that includes FountainVest Partners and Carlyle Group LP. The initial rally has cooled somewhat, but options traders targeting Focus Media Holding Ltd. calls this morning are positioned to benefit from further upside in the shares this month and next. August expiry options are most active as the trading week gets underway, with the bulk of the volume changing hands at the $24 strike. More than 7,600 of the Aug. $24 strike calls have traded so far and it appears most of the in-the-money contracts were purchased for an average premium of $1.90 each. The $23 strike call, also squarely in-the-money at present, was purchased more than 3,100 times earlier today for an average premium of $2.90 apiece. August $25 and $26 strike calls have traded upwards of 1,000 times each as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. Trading traffic in Focus Media calls spread to the Sept. $26 and $27 strikes as more than 1,000 contracts were snapped up at each strike at average premiums of $1.65 and $0.99 apiece, respectively. Reports of the takeover offer have lifted options volume on the stock above 50,000 contracts before midday, more than five times Focus Media’s 90-day average daily options volume of 9,191 contracts.

GME - GameStop Corp. – Put options on GameStop Corp. are active today ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Thursday. Shares in the name are up 0.90% on the session at $17.90 as of 11:40 a.m. ET. The stock has had a rough first half of the year, however, down 30% since January. Put buying on the name this morning suggests some strategists are wary the price…
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Sony Corp. Calls And Puts In Play

 

Today’s tickers: SNE, PLCE & EBAY

SNE - Sony Corp. ADR – The consumer electronics maker popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning after large positions were initiated in July expiry calls and puts. The strategist responsible for the trades appears to be positioning for shares in Sony Corp. to post double-digit gains in the next five months to expiration. The stock is up 1.35% at $21.17 on Thursday afternoon, one day after the Company’s new handheld game player and entertainment device, the Playstation Vita, went on sale in the U.S. It looks like the trader responsible for the bulk of total volume in Sony options today sold 5,000 puts at the July $16 strike for a premium of $0.35 each, and purchased around the same number of July $23 calls at an average premium of $0.93 apiece. The sizable positions were not marked as a spread, but the trades printed at approximately the same time this morning. The sale of the puts yields a net credit of $0.35 per contract, which the investor keeps as long as shares in Sony exceed $16.00 through expiration day. Long calls at the $23 strike prepare the investor to profit in the event that Sony’s shares rally 13.0% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $23.93 by expiration day in July. Finally, the purchase of around 1,300 calls at the July $22 strike suggests other bullish players are anticipating share price appreciation for the electronics maker. Traders paid an average premium of $1.40 per contract for the $22 strike calls and may profit in the event that shares settle above $23.40 at expiration.

PLCE - Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. – Traders driving volume in options on the specialty retailer of children’s apparel and accessories appear…
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Thursday Foolishness – More of the Same with One Trade

Our day is done, how’s yours?  

That’s right, we already did our 3am trade where we caught the dead top of oil (and the dead bottom of the Dollar), where my 2:59 am comment to Members in Chat was:  

 

Dollar at session low of 80.40 at 3am and oil back at yesterday’s high at $103.70 so oil (/CL) makes a nice short below $103.75 here but DANGEROUS pre-market trading as Iran could spout off at any moment and the trading is VERY THIN.  

So that brings us back to the good old Dow (/YM) futures at 12,350 and they are just over that line at 12,351 but that’s the short of the moment as long as the Dollar is over 80.40 .

For the next hour, I did a blow by blow on the oil trade in Member Chat on the way down to $102.70 – a nice $1,000 per contract worm gotten by the early birds, where we took the money and ran ahead of likely morning manipulation back up to $103.50, where we can short it again on inventories (11am).  The Dow slipped to 12,300 and paid a solid $250 per contract as well, paying for over 100 Egg Mcmuffins this morning by itself.  If you want to see how we make decisions along the way down – it’s well worth going over this morning’s comments – there was also some good discussion of other topics this morning, including my pick for the best wide-screen TV.  

We’re still just messing around with hit and run plays, waiting to see how the week pans out and next week we’ll be waiting to see how earnings pan out as well as what we expect will be a pretty major market pullback leading into the 10-year auctions next Wednesday at 1pm.  Clearly the Fed freaked out and jumped in yesterday when TLT hit $118 so we are fairly comfortable with…
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Oracle Call Buyer Portends Big Bullish Moves Ahead

Today’s tickers: ORCL, CTCT, PLCE & KO

ORCL - Oracle Corp. – U.S. stocks are accelerating to the downside this afternoon as concerns over Europe once again sour a market that had welcomed better-than-expected economic data this morning. The sea of red includes Oracle Corp., which currently trades 3.45% lower on the day at $30.89, just before 1:00 PM in New York. The pullback in the software maker’s shares today has not deterred one optimistic trader from taking a bullish stance on the stock out in the March 2012 expiry. The investor appears to have purchased 10,000 calls outright at the Mar. 2012 $36 strike for a premium of $0.92 each. Profits are available to the trader at expiration next year in the event that Oracle’s shares jump nearly 20.0% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $36.92. Shares in Oracle hit $36.50 on May 3 of this year, their highest since 2000, but have not topped $36.92 in at least a decade. Options implied volatility on the stock is up 15.5% to stand at 41.3% this afternoon.

CTCT - Constant Contact, Inc. – Fresh prints in Constant Contact call options suggests at least one strategist expects shares in the provider of email marketing and online survey solutions to rally over the next few months. Shares in CTCT fell 3.6% in the first half of the session to stand at $22.55 just before 11:40 AM ET. It looks like more than 1,300 in-the-money calls changed hands at the Mar. $22.5 strike against previously existing open interest of 65 contracts. Call volume is hefty relative to open interest at that strike and in comparison to overall open interest on the stock of 4,157 positions. One investor appears to have purchased nearly all of the ITM calls this morning for an average premium of $2.80 apiece. The trader stands prepared to profit should shares in Constant Contact rally 12.2% over the current price of $22.55 to surpass the average breakeven point at $25.30 at March expiration. The Waltham, Massachusetts-based company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on February 2, 2012, well in advance of the March 16, 2012, expiration date on the calls.

PLCE - Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. – Shares in the specialty retailer of children’s apparel and accessories are up big today, rallying as much as 17.1% to an intraday high of $52.70, after the company posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings of $1.33 a share and…
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Options Portend Slump In Shares Of Dunkin’ Brands

Today’s tickers: DNKN, PFCB, DDD & PLCE

DNKN - Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. – A burst of activity in calls and puts covering Dunkin’ Brands Group may be one investor’s way of preparing for a less than savory third-quarter earnings report when the company reveals its performance on November 2. Shares in the operator of Dunkin Donuts and Baskin-Robbins fell 0.90% to $28.16 this afternoon, and are down roughly 11.8% off the company’s post-IPO high of $31.94. The options combo initiated in the November contract this morning yields maximum benefits to its owner if shares in Dunkin’ suffer a nearly 30.0% pullback in the next six weeks. It looks like the investor responsible for the trade sold around 500 calls at the Nov. $30 strike for a premium of $1.375 each, in order to cover the cost of buying a roughly 500-lot Nov. $20/$25 put spread at a net premium of $0.90 each. The trader pockets a net credit of $0.475 per contract on the three-way spread, which he keeps as long as shares in DNKN fail to rally above $30.00 through November expiration. Additional profits are available to the investor should shares breach the $25.00-level, while maximum possible gains of $5.475 – including the net credit – are realized by the trader in the event that DNKN’s shares plummet nearly 30.0% to trade below $20.00 at expiration day. As far as possible motives behind the three-legged spread go, the potential for a disappointing third-quarter report represents just one possible explanation, as performance in U.S. equities across the board has tended to turn on a dime on negative or positive headlines out of Europe. The investor responsible for the transaction may be taking an outright bearish stance on the stock, or may be using the position to hedge long stock in DNKN through earnings. The short calls at the $30.00 strike may require the trader to deliver approximately 50,000 shares of the underlying that he may or may not already own at expiration…
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Thrill-Ride Thursday – Retail Sales and Maybe Some Jobs?

Beware the data!

The first thing you will hear this morning is that COST had a 9% rise in sales, with International sales up a whopping 25%.  What you are less likely to hear is that COST sells a lot of gasoline, which has doubled in price since last December and, excluding inflation in gas prices, same-store sales are up just 2%, a tremendous miss of the 7.9% expected.  Out of the 25% increase in International sales, 15% is attributable to currency exchange so up 10% is the real number

This is nothing against Costco, I like that company, but it's a caution sign to look carefully at the retail numbers we're going to be seeing today as there are several outside factors that are skewing the results drastically – to the point where the numbers, whether good or bad, are almost meaningless.  It's also good to keep in mind that we are comping sales to the WORST CHRISTMAS EVER so anything less than double digit gains over last year is still pretty sad. 

Mish did a good job yesterday of pointing out the statistical nonsense known as the Non-Farm Payroll Report, where "Birth/Death" model revisions that were as much as 356,000 a month last year (January) make the data beyond useless for any kind of serious analysis.  Nonetheless, analyze it they will and if we manage to avoid posting our 24th CONSECUTIVE month of losses, surely they will be pouring champagne on CNBC and acting like Capitalism has once again triumphed over evil (evil being people without money who still want to live with dignity). 

 

Speaking of dignity – if you know 100 people in Nevada then, statistically, 3 of them went bankrupt this year, up 61% from last year as our economy "recovers".  In Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, just 2 of your 100 friends filed while California, surprisingly "only" had one in 66 households file for bankruptcy so you can go almost a whole day and not run into someone who lost everything in California – too bad the same can't be said for the State overall!  California needs $21Bn over the next 18 months to keep the lights on.  This doesn't seem so bad, GMAC is losing $13Bn this quarter and we're bailing
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Just Another Manic Monday – Retail Edition

[Growth and Deflation chart]Good morning! 

Japan had a huge GDP beat (+1.2% for the Q, 4.8% annualized)) and they leaked it early (to oil executives!) but, strangely, deflation is accelerating at the same time.  That’s great news for stimulus watchers as the government can continue to pump money into the economy, even while it’s growing and, of course, the carry trade can continue.

Despite the robust third-quarter report, Japanese officials said they were still concerned about the economy’s strength going forward, and didn’t intend to pull back plans for further spending to ensure continued growth.

"There is no change in the severe condition of the country’s economy," Naoto Kan, the deputy prime minister, told reporters after the report’s release. "We are concerned about whether the economy falls into a deflationary situation," he added.

The domestic demand deflator — a measure of changes in prices of goods and services, excluding exports and imports — plunged 2.6%, the fastest pace since 1958. It was the third straight quarter of falling prices.

Another sign of concern in the report: The contribution of private consumer spending to growth slipped in the third quarter, suggesting measures to convert Japan from export-led growth to domestic-demand-led growth were facing limits. In the third quarter, private consumer spending, rose 0.7%, compared with a revised 1% climb in the second quarter.

It’s all stimulus but there’s no sign stimulus is stopping so party on markets.  Japan also got a huge benefit from the Chinese auto sales – more stimulus!  The Nikkei itself isn’t thrilled and is up just 0.25%, barely hitting Friday’s high on a stick-save into the close but that didn't stopping the futures from jumping up more than half a point and gold from hitting $1,130.  I sent out an Alert to Members at 2:24 this morning saying:

"Once the Nikkei closes (2am EST) the Hang Seng will have an hour to themselves and that should top out our futures (the Hang Seng is up at 22,900 (+1.5%).  The shorting move on gold futures is to short them as they cross below $1,130 with zero tolerance for holding gold above that line.  The same can be done with the S&P futures at 1,100, the Dow at 10,316 and the Nas at 1,800 and you can even use the 2 out of 4 rule to
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks Typically Decline 38% When This Takes Place!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the NYSE index over the past 20-years, highlighting “Hanging Man Patterns,” where they have taken place and what typically happens following this pattern.

Monthly hanging man patterns took place near the highs in 2000, 2007 & 2011 at each (1). The average decline following this pattern was around 38% over the past 20-years.

The Power of the Pattern has been sharing this pattern for the past 9-months with our...



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Zero Hedge

Nasdaq Futures Are Crashing As Apple Collapses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After yesterday's bloodbath, the world and their pet rabbit was ready to BTFD... but that's not what is happening...

Nasdaq futures are down another 2%, Dow futures are down almost 400 points and S&P futures are now red for 2018...

Nasdaq futures are practically unchanged YTD...

AAPL is down almost 4% more today!! (...



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Phil's Favorites

The Republican party and the undermining of American democracy

 

The Republican party and the undermining of American democracy

In this December 2017 photo, U.S. President Donald Trump congratulates Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, while Paul Ryan looks on, during a ceremony at the White House after the final passage of tax overhaul legislation. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Courtesy of Bruce J. Berman, Queen's University, Ontario and Daniel Levine, University of Michigan

The transformation of the Republican party from a recognizable centre-right conservative politi...



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Insider Scoop

The Street Reacts To BlackBerry's Cylance Acquisition

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BB Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For November 19, 2018 BlackBerry Scoops Up Cybersecurity Company Cylance For $1.4B ...

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Chart School

The Power of the Dow Jones Cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Once again the data confirms cycles exists in the market. Value and other fundamental investors must concede cycles are in the stock market. [You can learn more about our Hurst Cycle tools here].

Previous Post Kitchin Cycle warned of market volatility

In the past this blog has posted the chart below, the Kitchin cycle or 900 periods, and you can see its success.

The cycle source:

.."Joseph Kitchin (1861–1932) was a British busine...



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Members' Corner

NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEE...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern - but it may be a price worth paying

 

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern – but it may be a price worth paying

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Steven Huckle, University of Sussex

Bitcoin recently turned ten years old. In that time, it has proved revolutionary because it ignores the need for modern money’s institutions to verify payments. Instead, Bitcoin relies on cryptographic techniques to prove identity and authenticity.

However, the price to pay for all of this innovation is a high carbon footprint, created by Bitc...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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