Posts Tagged ‘Portfolio’

Hemp Boca Portfolio Review – 08-20-19

Hemp Boca Portfolio Review:  $43,205 is down $6,795 (13.6%) since we started so not off to a good start but that's why we scale into positions.  The market sell-off has given us some good opportunities to add to our current positions as well as pick up new ones but we don't want to deploy too much cash until we see the positions we have begin to stabilize.

  • IMAX – We're about even on this one and $21 is our goal so, if all goes well, this trade will pay us $4,000 but the current net is only $1,450 so $2,550 (175%) left to gain if IMAX can hold $21 through Jan 17th – not bad!  

  • M – Macy's fell very much out of favor along with the rest of the retail sector but we like them as a real estate play.  I'm still happy with the $23 target – even though it now seems far away but we do have 16 months to get there.  For the moment, let's roll the 15 2021 $20 calls at $1.15 ($1,725) to the $15 calls at $2.65 ($3,975) so we're spending net $2,250 to roll $7,500 lower


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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio – October 24, 2018

Speaking of trading, I am scheduled to be on BNN's Money Talk tonight at 7:30 which means it's time to adjust our Money Talk Portfolio.  We did a review last Thursday and the Portfolio was at $97,037 with the S&P at 2,802 and, as of yesterday's close, we had dropped $1,394 to $95,645 but that's still up $45,645 (91.3%) for the year so not terrible but it lets us know we need to do a bit more to lock in the gains (ie. more hedges).  

  • ALK – A short put we are confident in, should gain another $3,275 at maturity.  
  • SQQQ – A good hedge that's $6,760 in the money but only showing net $3,450 out of a $10,000 potential.  Hopefully we lose the $3,450 because the market does well as it's simply insurance and not a bet.  
  • ABX – A long-term bet on gold that pays up to $12,500 and is currently on track at net $2,225 so good for a new trade with another $10,275 (460%) left to gain at $15.  



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DHH Options Time

Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking (2) & Options Time Again

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World 

My heater’s broke and I’m so tired 
I need some fuel to build a fire (actually need something that cools heat down)
The girl next door (Tokyo), her lights are out, yeah
The landlord’s gone, I’m down and out
It’s cold gin (option) time again
You know it’ll always win – KISS

The tragic developments in Japan took center stage this past week and our hearts go out to everyone in Japan, and everyone who is touched by this catastrophic event.    

Prior to the earthquake and tsunami, the VIRTUAL Dark Horse Hedge virtual portfolio was positioned with a 70% Long / 30% Short tilt. We are now considering moving to a 50% / 50% balance. We will most likely do that, assuming no material change in the world events, by adding to our short positions next week.  In the meantime, we have two option positions which are expiring today and we wanted to add to the review we began last week.  (Click here for our first four long positions reviewed a week ago.)  

Options Expiration:

Radware Ltd (RDWR): On November 11, 2010 we added Radware (RDWR) to the virtual portfolio using Phil’s Buy/Write strategy.  At that time RDWR was trading at $33.39 and we added half the shares we wanted (100) and sold the March $35 2011 call and March $35 2011 put to complete the buy/write. On December 7, 2010 when the stock traded up to $40, we rolled the call out to the Jan $35 2012 call, which we sold for $9. We kept the March $35 2011 put we had already sold for $5.10.  The put (as 65-70% of options do) will expire worthless today yielding a $5.10 profit.  At this time, we believe it is prudent to hold the shares, currently trading at $35.56, and the Jan $35 2012 call.

Xyratex (XRTX): On December 20, 2010 we added Xyratex (XRTX) using the buy/write strategy and acquiring half the shares we wanted exposure to and selling March $15 calls and puts for a net $3.60.  XRTX is trading at $11.14 today on expiration day, so the call side will expire worthless ($1.80 profit) and the puts will be exercised – the


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Bring Out Your Dead

Portfolio house keeping – time to say goodbye to mistakes, rebalance what’s left and raise cash? – Ilene 

Bring Out Your Dead

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

unemployment

A slightly better than expected reading on weekly Jobless Claims has the market feeling bouncy this morning.  We also just got AAII sentiment numbers that are as negative as you get (20% bulls, 49% bears!).

Combine these two data points and a Dow that just barely managed to keep itself above the 10,000 level yesterday and you have the recipe for a nice bounce.

I’m planning to use it.  I’m planning on bringing out my dead for the cart man to carry away.

Sunlight is the greatest disinfectant known to man, so with this morning’s early rays of sunshine I will cleanse the house that is my long book.  I’ll be scouring my portfolios searching for the stocks that have become corpses during the correction’s long night.

This is not because I don’t believe that the bounce could be sustainable (I’m willing to give it the benefit of the doubt for now).  Rather, my expulsion of these stock market casualties has more to do with my desire for liquidity and my wish to be rid of that awful stench of death.

When the cart comes by, I’ll be heaping it with the bodies of a few nat gas stories that are going nowhere, a huge retailer that seems to have no bottom and a financial name or two.

I don’t give specific financial advice here on this site, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to use this opportunity to accept some of the mistakes of the summer and prepare your portfolio for the fall.

Bring out your dead.

Weekly jobless claims fall 31,000 to 473,000 (MarketWatch) 


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The Dark Horse Hedge

The Dark Horse Hedge

By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene, at Phil’s Stock World

Silhouette of Horses Jumping a Steeplchase

Scott Brown, Managing Director – Retail Division at Sabrient, is launching a newsletter with Phil’s Stock World based on the highly successful and popular Investors’ (H)Edge product.  The Dark Horse Hedge newsletter is a Long/Short retail portfolio taking advantage of technical market trends to tilt the balance of LONG vs. SHORT in bearish, bullish or range bound markets for added Alpha (the measure of return on a risk adjusted basis).  Long and short equity positions taken in The Dark Horse Hedge portfolio will be chosen using to Sabrient’s rating system, which is primarily based on fundamental criteria. Because the stock positions will generally be held for intermediate to long periods, these positions are ideal for using with option strategies taught by Phil Davis, of Phil’s Stock World.

The Dark Horse Hedge (DHH) newsletter will follow a number of guidelines in an attempt to minimize systemic risk, or “Beta.” Beta is a measure of the volatility of a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.  To keep beta low, the DHH portfolio will have both long and short positions.  Consequently, dramatic moves in the market will always be in the direction of at least part of the portfolio.

Using Sabrient’s rating system, we will focus on being long high quality stocks, and short low quality stocks.  Long positions should fare better than average during market selloffs.  In contrast, the short positions, selected from the lowest ranking stocks, should perform well during selloffs. These stocks are also expected to underperform higher quality names in a stronger market.  This strategy is designed to balance the goal of attaining Alpha with the desire to keep Beta relatively low.

We will follow this list of guidelines in building the DHH portfolio.

1.  When fully invested, the Portfolio will have 24 positions.  However the portfolio may not be fully invested.

2.  Tilting (or weighing) of the portfolio will be based on the position of the SPX relative to its 50 and 200 day Moving Averages

  • If the SPX is below both its 50


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Q3 $100,000 Virtual Portfolio – The Income Producer

I recently went down to Florida to see my folks and found something disturbing as I talked to their friends.

We all know that many people who have been on fixed incomes lost 50% of more of their virtual portfolios during the crash but what I hadn't realized is how deeply this was impacting those retirees because their fund/pension managers have, for the most part, done nothing to adjust their investing strategies at the market bottom. 

The average American has just $88,000 when they retire but we're not talking about them – we are talking about the retirees we aspire to be – the upper percentile Seniors in like the ones in West Palm Beach and  Boca Raton, Florida.  The average couple there had closer to $1M in portflio assets before the crash and closer to $600,000 now.  Even so, that can cause quite an income adjustment for a retired couple

Fortunately most of these people own their homes and get free government health care (Medicare) so they are not as devastated as younger Americans who are still paying off their homes and just working on saving for retirement while trying to provide health care and education for their children.  With Social Security (another thing that is iffy for us younger Baby Boomers down the road) adding $2,000 a month, the average 6% rate of return on a balanced virtual portfolio of $1M was $5,000 a month plus $2,000 from SS = $7,000 a month, generally enough to pay taxes and bills for the house, eat out once in a while, support 2 cars, do a bit of traveling and even belong to a golf club (dues in the average high-end development are $15,000 a year). 

 

The idea, of course, is to do all this WITHOUT dipping into the $1M principal that's invested in stocks and bonds.  Then came the crash.  The S&P dropped from 1,500 to 666, down 55% in less than a year.  Suddenly the $5,000 a month that came from investments dropped to $2,500 a month or less.  Even worse, many classic virtual portfolio mainstays like dividend paying financial institutions and American manufacturing companies were among the worst hits with dividends being canceled and some financials going to zero so quickly there was no chance to…
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Vacation-Proof Your Virtual Portfolio

A couple of years ago, Option Sage (Gareth) and I put up a very popular article titled "Vacation-Proof Your Virtual Portfolio."

In it we discussed several strategies for hedging existing positions, moving them into neutral positions ahead of a time when you would be going away and not able to keep your eye on the markets.  As we cashed out last week, it hasn't been much of an issue coming into this long weekend but some of you still have long postiions that need protecting and Sage has been kind enough to provide us with access to a free on-line seminar on the subject through his educational platform at www.MarketTamer.com.   

I don't recommend many services but Sage was an original member who went on to write many of our educational posts over the years and went on to develop an on-line trading education system that is very, very good for learning stock and options trading.  PSW members get a special offer of $99/month, which is 1/3 the going rate AND he will give you that $99 back if you are not satisfied after the first month!  So check out the link above, there are 3 free lessons there and read through the article.  If you plan on going away with positions open this summer in this crazy market – I think it will be time well spent…

Those of you who know Sage have probably already linked over but for those of you who didn't get a chance to meet him when he was on-line with us all the time, here's a copy of Market Tamer's recent press release, which tells you a bit about Gareth and the company he's been building:

Taming The Market
 
A shockingly simple yet amazingly powerful concept has been ignored by major hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail traders alike.  On their quest to outperform the market, Wall Street's best often get sucked into a single style of investing or trading:  long only, long/short, distressed, diversified and the list goes on.  They use a single approach to exploit a changing market.  And often a single approach works – for a while.  Bill Miller of Legg Mason was regarded as one of the stars on Wall Street until his virtual portfolio…
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$100,000 Hedged Portflio Update

We didn't do a wrap-up last week as I instead wrote a long, Members Only post (only Part 1 too) on "Setting Up A $100,000 Hedged Virtual Portfolio" concentrating on a virtual $20,000 allocation in the financials for our first sector.

We're going to do more of these on the weekends as people find them useful and also because, although they are very popular, I do get tired of just reviewing what we did for the past 5 trading days every week.  So maybe a little of both today but I aim to keep this short (as I usually do, but it never works out) so we can do another post on earnings plays tomorrow.

How is our new sample virtual portfolio looking after a week?  Well let's see

  • 500 UYG at $3.48, selling 5 May $3 calls for .72 and 5 May $3 puts for .28, net $2.48/2.74

    • UYG now $3.79, May put and call combo now $1.12 = net $2.67 ($95 profit on $1,240 = 7.7%)
  • Selling 2 FAS $7.50 puts for .45 naked

    • FAS closed at $9.40 so 100% profit of $90
  • 500 C at $3.04, selling May $3 puts and calls for $1.11, net $1.93/2.47

    • C now $3.65, May $3 put and call combo is $1.19 = net $2.46 ($265 profit on $965 = 27.5%)
  • Selling 2 IYF May $36 puts for $2 naked

    • IYF closed at $40.26, May $36 puts $1.20 ($160 profit on $400 =40%)
  • Selling 2 JPM May $29 puts for $1.95 naked

    • JPM closed at $33.26, May $29 puts $1.17 ($156 profit on $390 = 40%)
  • Selling 7 FAZ May $10 puts for $2.40 naked (adjusted to reflect Monday's gap down open)

    • May $10 puts are now $2.67 so a loss of $189 (-11.3%).  Both our July and Oct escape rolls are still intact so no worries here anyway (this is a hedge to the others)
  • 5 FAZ Oct $12.50 calls for $4 (adjusted), selling 5 May $21s for $1.05, net $2.95.

    • The Oct $12.50s are now $3.29, May $21s are now .45 so net $2.85, a loss of $50 (3.4%)

So far so good!  The FAZ hedges are holding up nicely while all of our upside plays were winners. …
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Zero Hedge

The US Can't Afford To Let Shale Fail

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

It’s no secret that the growth of U.S. shale oil has been a thorn in the sides of both Saudi Arabia and Russia. They have seen their market shares erode as the shale boom made the U.S. the world’s largest producer of crude oil. But Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, Saudi Aramco, is a single entity that produces 13 percent of the world’s oil and controls 17 percent of the world’s proved reserves. That puts them in a very p...



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ValueWalk

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on small business help plans

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

CNBC transcript: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Speaks with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” today on small business help related to coronavirus

WHEN: Today, Wednesday, April 1, 2020

WHERE: CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Full interview with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on small business help

JIM CRAMER: It’s our pleasure to bring in Steven Mnuchi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Facing A Historical Kiss of Resistance?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the S&P starting out a new month and quarter at a very important price point? This chart would say YES!

This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past 12-years, reflecting that it has spent the majority of the past 9-years “inside of this rising channel and above its 200-week moving average!”

The weakness in March saw the S&P break below the bottom of the channel and its 200-week ma line for the first time in 9-years.

The small counter-trend rally last week has the S&...



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The Technical Traders

Weakness Appears To Be Setting For This Weeks Economic Data

Courtesy of Technical Traders

As the world reacts to the global economic slowdown because of the COVID-19 virus event and the massive stimulus programs and central bank efforts to support the global economy, investors still expect weakness in the US and foreign markets.  We believe this expected weakness will not subside until news of a proper resolution to this virus event is rooted in the minds of investors and global markets.

Hong Kong and China are currently concerned about experiencing a “third wave” of the COVID-19 virus within their society.  As the economies open back up to somewhat normal, people are very concerned that a renewed wave of new infections will suddenly appear and potenti...



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Phil's Favorites

Mr. Morgan

 

Mr. Morgan

Courtesy of 

The Federal Reserve had a precursor before it became the lender of last resort. It wasn’t an institution or a government department. It was a single, solitary man named J. Pierpont Morgan. Mr. Morgan, he was called in the newspapers, and you didn’t need to go any further – everyone knew to whom you were referring.

Stock market panics were common in the early 1900’s because of the agrarian nature of the economy. Each summer, the local banks that catered to farmers throughout the country began calling their money back from the banks in New York City and Chicago so they could raise enough capital to bring in the h...



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Insider Scoop

Why NanoVibronix's Stock Is Trading Higher Today

Courtesy of Benzinga

NanoVibronix (NASDAQ: NAOV) shares are trading higher on Wednesday.

The company announced it has received reimbursement approval from the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for its PainShield.

NanoVibronix focuses on the manufacturing and sale of noninvasive biological response-activating devices that target biofilm prevention, wound healing, and pain therapy. Its principal products include UroShield, an ultrasound-based product to prevent bacterial colonization and biofilm in urinary catheters, enhance antibiotic efficacy,...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The new coronavirus emerged from the global wildlife trade - and may be devastating enough to end it

 

The new coronavirus emerged from the global wildlife trade – and may be devastating enough to end it

Government officers seize civets in a wildlife market in Guangzhou, China to prevent the spread of the SARS disease, Jan. 5, 2004. Dustin Shum/South China Morning Post via Getty Images

Courtesy of George Wittemyer, Colorado State University

COVID-19 is one of countless emerging infectious diseases that are zoonotic, meaning they originate in animals. ...



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Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.