Posts Tagged ‘Pound’

Fearful Thursday – Manic Over, Depression Sets In

The markets are clearly insane.

I diagnosed manic depression in the markets years ago but it’s been getting worse and worse to the point where we now have mood swings from week to week and sometimes even day to day.  Much of this is politically driven with the Conservatives currenly in overdrive – looking to "prove" that every single thing the Democratically-controlled Government does is nothing short of a disaster.  Nothing works, nothing will work and nothing proposed will work other than more tax cuts and "throwing the bums out" (the Democratic bums, not the Republican bums). 

There is a 24-hour television network that is slightly conservative and, if you look on the Fox web site, you will find out that 8% of the children in the US are born to "illegals," that cutting the World’s largest defense budget will make U.S. less safe (YOU DECIDE – they say), Democrats IGNORE ethics cloud by attending Charlie Rangle’s 80th birthday party, Democrats are using the Tea Party against the GOP (but don’t worry because "the tide is turning at the polls"), the drilling ban is crippling the Gulf, we’re "wasting" Billions of dollars by sending aid to other countries and, best of all, the page is sponsored by BipolarDepression.com!

Heck, after reading that page I’m ready for a few Xanex myself! 

The front page of the WSJ is not much better with the headline: "ECB Warns on Economic Recovery" along with their very accurate Page 1 print headline: "Markets Swoon on Fears."  Of course, if you actually read the ECB article, you’ll find what they actually said is "The sustainability of the recovery in global and euro-area trade will depend critically not only on a further strengthening of private demand, but also on the robustness and health of the global financial system" IN THE CONTEXT of an article analyzing the collapse of global trade in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.  But that doesn’t make a great headline does it?  That doesn’t make you pick up the paper or stay tuned through the commercial so it’s ALTERED, spun to maximize the FEAR reaction in the readers – the one that is most likely to lead to a purchase decision. 

The European Union’s Eurostat statistics office, meanwhile, said industrial output dropped 0.1% from May and was 8.2% stronger than last June. Economists
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Tuesday – Bill Gross Gives Us 90 Seconds

Our favorite bond pimp is in some mood this month!

Maybe it's because, despite PimpCo's best efforts, they failed to tank the markets last week but Gross starts his March newsletter off with this harsh chart but his words are even harsher - saying of cocktail parties:

I suppose the parties wouldn’t be so bad if there was something original to be said, or if “you” had a genuine interest in “me” as opposed to “you,” but let’s face it folks, no one does. The only reason any of us really cares about cocktail conversations is to quickly redirect someone else’s stories into autobiographies that we assume to be instant bestsellers if only in print. If not, if the doe-eyed listener seems simply fascinated by what you’re saying, you can bet there’s a requested personal favor coming when you finally shut up. “Say Bill, I was wondering if you knew somebody at…that could…” Yeah right! But, as my chart shows, 90 seconds into a typical conversation, no one gives a damn about you and your problems – maybe those shoes and that dreadful eye shadow you’re wearing, but not anything audible coming out of your mouth.

Yow Bill!  Tell us how you really feel…  After telling us how appalling he finds it to endure 90 seconds of our time at a party, Bill then asks for his own 90 seconds to teach us about economics.  I'm not going to edit as it is about 90 seconds worth but after that opening – don't you find it kind of hard to read what he has to say without looking for a place to throw a virtual punch?

To begin with, let’s get reacquainted with the fundamental economic problem of our age – lack of global aggregate demand – and how we got to where we are today:

(1) Twenty years of accelerated globalization incrementally undermined the real incomes of most developed countries’ workers/citizens, forcing governments to promote leverage and asset price appreciation in order to fill in what is known as an “aggregate demand” gap – making sure that consumers keep buying things. When the private sector assumed too much debt and asset prices bubbled (think subprimes and houses, or dotcoms/NASDAQ 5000), American-style capitalism with its leverage, deregulation, and religious belief in lower


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Testy Tuesday Morning – $1.70 for a Pound? I Don’t Think So…

Has the dollar fallen too far?

The British Pound is now fetching $1.70, a huge break-out and well above the June highs, now valued higher to the dollar than any time since last October.  Britain has aggressively cut rates and expanded their money supply and Britain had banks falling like dominoes before being taken over by the government.   The UK's budget deficit as a percent of GDP is forecast to be 11.6% this year, the second worst on the planet, exceeded only by the US's projection of 13.5% but the UK is forecast to catch up in 2010 with 13.3% of their GDP taken up by debt.  Why then, you may wonder, is the British Pound up 25% against the dollar this year and almost 10% this past month?

The answer to that is the same as the answer to many irrational market moves – SPECULATION.  The dollar in general has been pushed back down to 1-year lows by currency speculators and the Pound is benefiting from their No-Euro policy that makes the UK a relatively safe-looking investment for currency traders who are worried that Eastern Europe will eventually prove to be a weight that drags the rest of the EU down.  With a population and economy about the size of California and the independence of a sovereign nation, any small sign of improvement (like the recent uptick in manufacturing data in the UK) can quickly pull money back to the Pound who, just 30 years ago, were the second strongest currency in the world and, for 500 years before that, was the undisputed global leader.  The UK, as it was 500 years ago, is still ruled by its powerful banking sector and again the fishbowl-like nature of the island nation tends to magnify small improvements we've seen in the UK banks, which causes Japanese housewives (who are very into FOREX trading) to push more money into British currency. 

Japan Housewife forexToday it may become apparent that the Japanese housewives have become a little irrational in their Pound exuberance as nationalized British Bank, Northern Rock, showed a 31% increase in first-half losses to $1.25Bn as bad loan provisions jumped to over $1Bn from under $300M last year.  Even worse for the bank – deposits fell 17% despite the bank's 100% government guarantee
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Q2 Tuesday – Ending With A Whimper, Not A Bang

What happened to our great rally?

We started the quarter off well enough, with the Dow at 7,522 and S&P at 787 on April 1st, we flew right up to 8,000 on the Dow and 840 on the S&P the next day but then it took us the rest of the month to gain 200 more points and the last day of May we finished at 8,500 Dow, S&P 920 - nothing to write home about on the whole.  June 1st was very exciting as we made all our gains for the month that day, flying up to Dow 8,800, S&P 944 but that's where we called a top and cashed out and it's been pretty dull ever since as we've bounced up and down between 8,800 and 8,300 on the Dow and 940 and 900 on the S&P, waiting for a breakout one way or the other.

It's dull to stay in cash, it's like going to the track and not betting on any races.  We really thought we'd get a proper indicator by now and we had fun betting the downturn from the middle of June but even that fizzled and left us back in cash as we head into the holiday weekend.  On the bright side, the VIX has come down substantially and we are now able to pick up long options again at reasonable prices.  This will be fantastic and give us some great leverage but we still need the market to pick an actual direction. 

At least now we have earnings coming so we can evaluate various sectors and place some bets for Q3 but index buying has ruled Q2 and the performance of individual stocks has been washed away as a factor as machine trading has yanked the broader market up and down on a daily basis.  It used to matter how IBM or INTC was doing as an individual company, now the entire Nasdaq can fly to the moon and take PALM, AAPL and RIMM with it, even though it's not very likely that all can do well in the same space for very long (remember MOT?).  We are no longer deluding ourselves that 2Bn people in Asia and Africa will be sporting the newest smart phones on the beach next summer yet the pie in the sky valuations persist, as if there is infinite room for all competitors to sell…
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Phil's Favorites

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

 

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

Kamala Harris, a U.S. senator from California, endorsed Joe Biden for president in March. Now she is his vice presidential nominee. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sharon Austin, University of Florida

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, the ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

 

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

The Fed can create all the money Uncle Sam needs. GeorgePeters/Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

French philosopher Voltaire famously quipped: “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” Something similar can be said of modern monetary theory, also known as MMT, because it may be the economy’s only hope to get through the pandemic.

Coined by Australia...



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ValueWalk

Clem Chambers Explains How ADVFN Became A Financial Information Juggernaut

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Clem Chambers, the CEO of ADVFN and the CEO of Online Blockchain plc was kind enough to talk with Valuewalk about the success of his investment website. Below is a lightly edited Q&A between Clem and our editor.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Can you tell us about your background?

I started in the software industry over thirty-six years ago and was a pioneer of computer games, massively multiplayer games, multimedia and the internet. I founded internet company Online plc in 1990, which incubated stocks and shares (and now ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Bear Market Resistance Kiss In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is ole Doc Copper about to ends its 9-year bear market? I suspect we will find out the answer to the question very soon!

Doc Copper has created a series of higher lows inside the falling channel (1) since it peaked back in 2011.

The rally from the lows in March of this year, has Doc Copper testing the top of its falling channel as well as a support/resistance price zone at (2).

With Doc Copper still in a bear market (lower highs for 9-years), this price test comes into play as important resistance at (2).

If Doc Copper breaks out at (2), it would send...



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Zero Hedge

Global COVID-19 Pandemic Surpasses 20 Million Confirmed Cases: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Summary:

  • Global COVID count tops 20 Million
  • Cali sees "encouraging signs", Gov Newsom says
  • "Big Ten" cancels season
  • California reports 7,751 new cases, says it has fixed reporting issues
  • NJ transmission rate shows virus no longer spreading in state
  • Arizona COVID outbreak continues to slow; ICU rates decline again
  • NY reports just 2 COVID deaths as positivity rate lingers near record low
  • Florida cases continue to decline
  • World on the cusp of 20 million confirmed COVID cases
  • WHO praises Paris mask order
  • ...


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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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The Technical Traders

Melt-Up Continues While Metals Warn of Risks

Courtesy of Technical Traders

What a week for Metals and the markets, folks. The Transportation Index is up nearly 4% for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 3% for the week.  Silver is up over 14% and reached a peak near $30 (over 23%).  Gold is up over 2.5% and trading above $2025 right now – with a peak price level near $2090.  If you were not paying attention this week, there were some really big moves taking place.

MELT-UP WITH HIGH RISKS – PAY ATTENTION

Overall, our research team believes the current “melt-up” price action is likely to continue as global investors continue to believe the US Fed will do everything possible to save the...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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