Posts Tagged ‘Prechter’

Triggers to nastiness

New charts from Allan, who seems to be predicting an end to the rally’s coming soon.  Here’s why. – Ilene

Triggers to nastiness

Courtesy of Allan

Things are getting pretty interesting again, due to a host of factors that seem to be converging and alerting us to some imminent changes. Both Glenn Neely and Robert Prechter are suggesting the move up from March has just about reached it’s most likely conclusion, reaching or close to reaching ideal targets in terms of price (Prechter & Neely) and time (Neely). In addition, Arch Crawford wrote in his August newsletter that, "September is a truly ugly month right from the start – Overwhelming negative aspect count."

Let’s walk through my most salient charts and analysis to see if we can identify any triggers to nastiness, so as to be ready when Ms. Market yells, "Pull."

 

SPX- Monthly

On the Monthly chart, with one day left in August, 1029.80 still prevents the ATR system from flipping positive. Blue Wave is four months into it’s Buy Signal and won’t flip Short until the 830′s.

SPX – Weekly

On the Weekly analysis, we still see a triple divergence on the False Bar Stochastic as well as a stubborn wave count and pattern from Advanced GET warning of new lows to come. I’ve drawn a trend line that is walking up with price and is sitting right now at about 963, almost exactly where both Blue Wave and ATR will flip Short. Take note. 

SPX – Daily

A close up Daily chart further clarifies and provides new REVERSAL levels, basis Daily closing prices:

Blue Wave Daily flips SHORT @ 1010.87

ATR Daily flips SHORT @ 1000.71

INTRA-DAY CHARTS
 
SPX – 90 minute


The 90 minute chart shows an Elliott Oscillator on the bottom, highlighting a significant divergence between the oscillator and the recent new


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The Big Inflationist Scare

The fascinating inflation-deflation debate goes on. Here, Mish responds to Gary North’s Pushing on a String (reprinted in our Favorites earlier today).

What do you think? Will it be inflation, hyperinflation, stagflation, deflation, no-flation – or some combination-flation? Please post thoughts in the comments section below. – Ilene

The Big Inflationist Scare

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are reading Pushing on a String by Gary North.

Gary always writes an interesting column. Indeed, there is too much to excerpt that I suggest reading it. Gary has many of his facts correct, yet still manages to come to the wrong conclusion.

CONCLUSION

The Federal Reserve can re-ignite monetary inflation at any time by charging banks a fee to keep excess reserves with the FED.

Anyone who predicts an inevitable price deflation does not understand that the present scenario is the product of legitimately terrified bankers and the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. At any time, the FED can get all of the banks’ money lent. But the FED knows that this will double the money supply within weeks. This will create mass price inflation.

This is the central fact in the inflation vs. deflation debate. Until the deflationists answer it with a unified voice, they will remain, as their predecessors remained, people with neither a theoretical nor a practical case for their position.

So, the FED waits. Meanwhile, the Federal government’s share of the economy rises relentlessly because of the deficits. This is not going to change in the next few years.

We are seeing Keynesianism’s last stand. When it fails, the FED will force the banks to lend. Then we will see mass inflation.

Mass deflation? Forget about it.

Yes, the bankers are terrified, not just in the US but globally.

However, Gary’s hypothesis "the Federal Reserve can re-ignite monetary inflation at any time by charging banks a fee to keep excess reserves with the FED", is just that, a hypothesis, and I believe a very poor one at that.

Bernanke’s idea to pay interest on reserves will slowly recapitalize banks over time. This is why he desperately wanted to do so. To suggest he is about to charge interest on deposits is silly.

The key fact now is there are not enough credit worthy customers for banks to want to lend, or for


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Zero Hedge

BLS Admits "Survey Error" Continues, Resulting In Artificially Lower Unemployment Rate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last month we reported that in a report full of statistical glitches and outright errors, the BLS itself admitted that a "misclassification error" led to the May unemployment rate being as much as 3% higher than reported. Well, guess what: despite knowing it was openly misrepresenting what is the most important US economic data, the BLS continued reporting numbers that contained a "miscl...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

 

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

We are slowly figuring out which drugs and therapies are effective against the new coronavirus. Anton Petrus / Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

I am a physician and a scientist at the University of Virginia. I care for patients and conduct research to find better ways to diagnose and treat infectious ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

 

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

We are slowly figuring out which drugs and therapies are effective against the new coronavirus. Anton Petrus / Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

I am a physician and a scientist at the University of Virginia. I care for patients and conduct research to find better ways to diagnose and treat infectious ...



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ValueWalk

FedEx Corp.: Fundamentals Support the Price Increase

By F.A.S.T. Graphs. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Introduction

After reporting better than 4th quarter results on Tuesday, the stock price of FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) has been on a tear. With this article, I plan to demonstrate that the fundamentals support the current price rise. Moreover, the fundamentals also suggest that it is not too late to take a long-term position in this leading air freight and logistics company.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Yesterday, FedEx reported a surge in quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.53 per share compared to expectations of $1.52 per s...



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The Technical Traders

Long-Term Consumer Discretionary Winners

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I was live on TD Ameritrade TV talking about consumer discretionary, staples, and utility sectors. Explained is a unique crossover on how some discretionary stocks are also becoming a consumer staple.

Get My ETF Trade Signals, Entry, Targets, and Stop Levels – CLICK HERE ...

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Chart School

US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?


Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?


The question is always what will the future price action look like ?


This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.



There are two theories: ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.