Posts Tagged ‘predictions’

The Perils of Prediction

The Perils of Prediction 

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds 

Fortune teller wheel

Nobody knows the future, so the best we can do is strive for an open mind and flexibility in our thinking and responses. 

In 1904, the "fact-based" consensus was that rising prosperity would stretch into the future as far as imagination allowed. The prosperity was so widespread that war, it seemed, had been abolished as bad for business.

In 1904, Imperial Tsarist Russia, though suffering from the usual spot of bother now and again, was stable and enduring. In 1904, Great Britain viewed France as its continental rival.

Ten years later, advanced, peaceful, hopeful Europe stumbled into the Great War, and three years into that war Tsarist Russia fell to revolution.

In 1928, permanent prosperity was again the consensus. Two years later, that hope was reduced to ashes.

In 1930, Germany and Japan were economically troubled, as were the other great nations of the world, but neither were seen as threatening. Less than ten years later, the two nations had declared war on the world.

In 1980, fear of a sudden massive Soviet tank attack on West Germany sparked a series of "what if" books and a push for short-range nuclear-armed missiles in Germany--a U.S. plan which galvanized the Western European peace movement.

Ten years later, the Soviet Empire had crumbled into dust and abandoned gulags.

In 1975, scholars and pundits confidently declared that the "cult of Mao" which fueled China’s Culutral Revolution was so entrenched, so pervasive and so central to China’s Communist regime that would outlast Mao the mortal and thus into the next century.

Three years later, Mao was dead and the Gang of Four lost power. Ten years after 1975, when the Cult of Mao was universally viewed as a permanent feature of China, that nation was four years into the state-controlled, limited-capitalist model of engaging the world that created its present-day pre-eminence.

I think you see my point: consensus predictions of what the future holds are generally wrong. The consensus in the U.S. about the world of 2020 is that it won’t be much different from the world of 2010. All the actuarial tables of Social Security run to 2040 and beyond, as if the road ahead will be an extension of the past sixty years of American global dominance and credit-based prosperity.

That alone tells me 2020 will…
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How your brain remembers the future

Déjà vu, all over again.

How your brain remembers the future

Image Of Thinking Man's Brain Through Bowler Hat

By NewScientist

IT’S like remembering the future. Our brain generates predictions of likely visual inputs so it can focus on dealing with the unexpected.

Predictable sights trigger less brain activity than unfamiliar stimuli, bolstering the view that the brain is not merely reactive, but generates predictions based on the recent past. "The brain expects to see things and really just wants to confirm it now and again," says Lars Muckli at the University of Glasgow, UK.

[...]

The finding supports the "Bayesian brain" theory, which sees the brain as making predictions about the world which it updates when new information comes in.


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Few Called Market Turn, Fewer Predict It Will Last

H/t to Pragcap.

Few Called Market Turn, Fewer Predict It Will Last

market turn, time.comBy AP / TIM PARADIS, courtesy of TIME

(NEW YORK) — Few analysts forecast this year’s remarkable stock market rebound as major indexes were plunging to 12-year lows last March. Now, with most experts predicting the pace of stocks’ gains will slow in 2010, there’s reason to believe they will be proven correct.

Stocks began the dramatic turnaround in March after Citigroup Inc. and other big banks said they were making money again, and then climbed at a fairly steady pace as signs of an economic recovery from the Great Recession became more pronounced.

Investor fears about a potential financial system collapse played a big role in the early year slump in stocks. Once it was clear that wasn’t going to happen, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index roared back 64.8 percent from its early March low, the biggest move since the Depression. For the full year, the index rose 23.5 percent, its best showing since 2003.

But sustaining that momentum in the new year likely would require a big drop in the unemployment rate and strong corporate profit gains, along with stable borrowing costs--a combination few analysts are forecasting.

"The easy money has been made already," said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist for PNC Wealth Management. "You’re not going to see another 65 percent move in the next nine months."

In the last day of the year, more signs of healing first pleased investors, then had them concerned about the economy’s ability to thrive without government help. Light trading volume exaggerated the market’s moves, sending the Dow Jones industrial average down 120.46, or 1.1 percent, to 10,428.05.

The year’s stats tell an incredible story across the financial markets:…

Stock market gains often come months before economic recoveries are confirmed. That’s because investors tend to bet on how they think business conditions will be six to nine months in the future. In downturns during the past 60 years, the S&P 500 index hit its bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment reached its peak…

Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management in Champaign, Ill., said the market can continue its rally through 2010 only if investors see that companies are again hiring, bringing the unemployment rate down for its present 10…
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GOLDMAN SACHS 2010 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK – THE BULL WILL CONTINUE

GOLDMAN SACHS 2010 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK – THE BULL WILL CONTINUE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Fortune's Andy Serwer Interviews Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein

The rally is going to continue into 2010 according to Wall Street’s most influential bank   (Please see here for Goldman’s top 10 trades of 2010). Analysts at Goldman Sachs Europe and America have released their full year 2010 estimates and they are very bullish about the upcoming year.

Goldman sees very low rates, stronger than expected earnings, strong commodity demand and investor reallocation driving prices higher.  Goldman sees no rate changes through 2011 – one of the most accommodative outlooks of any bank we have covered.  Stronger than expected revenue growth and continued margin expansion will result in 15%+ equity returns in the upcoming year.  Although they see a continuation in the rally some moderation is expected.  As we previously mentioned, their analysts expect many similarities to 2004.  David Kostin wrote:

“Continued profit margin resiliency from prior aggressive cost reductions should drive strong returns in early 2010 and push the S&P 500 towards 1,300.”

Their analysts in Europe are even more bullish.  They see the DJ STOXX 600 rising 20% to 300 by the end of 2010.

Goldman argues that we are transitioning into the growth phase of the recovery from the hope phase.  This period is generally characterized by stabilization in economic growth and lower equity returns than the hope phase.  Nonetheless, doubt remains and catalysts for higher stock prices remain.

gs21 GOLDMAN SACHS 2010 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK   THE BULL WILL CONTINUE

Perhaps most important, Goldman sees a continued influx of cash to the equity markets.  Thus far, investors have been risk averse and either remain in cash or have moved into bonds.  Goldman sees a substantial move into equities as investors become less risk averse.

cash GOLDMAN SACHS 2010 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK   THE BULL WILL CONTINUE

How to play it?  Thematically they focus on three key themes:

  • Dispersion – higher growth and higher sustainable returns companies.
  • BRICs exposure.
  • High and growing dividend growth companies.

* You can find Goldman’s 2010 commodity predictions here.

Source: GS

 


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Mid-Year 2009 Checkup

Here’s Karl Denninger’s mid-year review of his new year predictions, and thoughts on 2009 part 2.

market predictionsMid-Year 2009 Checkup

Courtesy of Karl at The Market Ticker


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Zero Hedge

If Not-QE Is QE, Then Is Not-A-Blowoff-Top A Blowoff Top?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets?

When is "Not-QE" QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story that Abraham L...



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Phil's Favorites

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Insider Scoop

WeWork Could Leave Thousands Without Jobs

Courtesy of Benzinga

Co-working space startup WeWork could lay off more than one-third of its total workforce as soon as next week, the New York Times reported on Sunday.

What Happened

More than 2,000 people employed in WeWork’s core business of subletting working space will lose their jobs, according to the New York Times.

Another 1,000 employees will be laid off as the startup shuts down its other businesses, including a private school it runs i...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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