Posts Tagged ‘price inflation’

“Contained Depression”

"Contained Depression"

Courtesy of Mish 

Deflated globe

Kevin Feltes, an economist for the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, solicited my opinion on a couple of their recent articles.

Levy comes down on the side of deflation, as do I. However, the devil is in the details, as always. I will go through one of their articles in a point-by-point fashion, stating where I agree and disagree with their analysis.

This is a long post. Please give it some time.

Please consider Widespread Fear of the Wrong Kind of Price Instability.

Levy:

It is not inflation but more disinflation and ultimately deflation that lie ahead in the 2010s.

Inflation worries remain a major part of the market backdrop, and the past year has brought new price stability concerns to investors. During that time, we have written about inflation fears, deflation risks, and the relationships between price trends and monetary policy, fiscal policy, Treasury debt levels, foreign debt holdings, and various other issues. We have argued that rising inflation will not be a threat in the coming years and that disinflation and some deflation are the real worries. Our position remains unchanged.

1. Why It Will Be Very Difficult for Inflation to Accelerate in the Next Few Years

The dominant influence on price trends in the near future and for years to come will be the deflationary influence of chronically high unemployment. The economy not only has gone through a deep recession but also has entered a contained depression, a long period of substandard economic performance, chronic financial problems, and generally high unemployment. The contained depression is likely to last about a decade; it will end in the latter half of the 2010s at the earliest and could stretch into the 2020s

In the years ahead, chronic high unemployment will weigh heavily on labor costs; chronic economic weakness will tend to keep profit margins under pressure and firms focused on cost control; and global instability and large areas of depression (contained or otherwise) will reduce upward pressures on prices of imported commodities and are likely to cause these prices to fall much of the time.

Even if imported commodity prices, most notably oil prices, rise sharply at times, they will not have a large, lasting effect on inflation as long as labor costs are decelerating or actually falling.

Labor costs are the dominant inflation influence not only because


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Why Gold Has a LONG Way to Go

Why Gold Has a LONG Way to Go

Dannii Minogue Switches On The Harrods Christmas Lights

By Jeff Clark, courtesy of Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

A couple weeks ago, I had my TV tuned to a business show that loves to give predictions on the markets and the economy. On that day, one of the program’s regular guests declared it was time to “short” gold, that it had reached its top, and that the precious metals bull market was over. I’ll try to be nice in my rebuttal.
 
So, what was his reasoning: technical analysis of wave counts? falling demand? a telling ratio? sun spots? No, he noted that upscale department store Harrods in London began selling gold bullion and coins “over the counter,” ergo, the top was in. Nice try, “Bert,” but this is amateurish. You really shouldn’t be playing with the big boys if that’s the basis of your call.
 
Yes, gold will someday put in a top, and since the gold price is largely determined by psychology, the end of the bull run will be marked by behavioral types of signals. But calling a top in gold now is like declaring that WWII was over because the Allies won a small skirmish in early 1942. To have made such a statement, based on a small, isolated event, ignored the greater forces that had yet to play out and would have made any journalist or military strategist look foolish indeed.
 
And here’s why Bert looks equally silly today…
 
If the top were in, we’d be in the midst of an all-out Mania. Are we? Do you get the impression there’s a rush into gold by the greater public right now? Are headlines blazing the covers of major magazines pronouncing gold as the new investment king? Has Wall Street gone gaga over gold and silver? I ask because these are the true signs that a trend has entered its final blow-off top and would signal it’s time to get out.
 
I decided to put Bert’s prognostication to the test, and I invite you to play along.
 


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Zero Hedge

Iran Suffers Most Daily Death Toll Since COVID-19 Outbreak Began; NY Adds 3 More States To 'Mandatory Quarantine' List: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • NY releases latest numbers, adds 3 more states to quarantine list
  • Trump touts COVID-19 mortality rate improvement
  • GOP moves to test all convention attendees
  • Worker 'revolt' at University of Georgia
  • Beijing reports 8 foreign cases
  • South Korea reports 40+ new cases
  • Melbourne enters 6-week lockdown
  • India passes 700k cases
  • Iran sees record jump in deaths
  • South Africa tops 200k

* * *

Update (...



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Phil's Favorites

Up and Down

 

Up and Down

Courtesy of 

This stat from @SentimentTrader blew me away:

“The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has been up at least 0.5% for 5 straight days. That’s tied for the longest streak since its inception.”

I wasn’t taken aback because of how strong the markets have been recently, but that streak of five days sounded really small to me. I almost couldn’t believe it was right. But after looking at the data, the shock wore off.

The S&P 500 has gained >0.5% on 28% of all days (going back to 1993), so the likelihood of...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Is the COVID-19 pandemic cure really worse than the disease? Here's what our research found

 

Is the COVID-19 pandemic cure really worse than the disease? Here's what our research found

The economic impact of coronavirus restrictions can also take a human toll. mladenbalinovac via Getty Images

Courtesy of Olga Yakusheva, University of Michigan

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

The big idea

The coronavirus pandemic catapulted the country into one of the deepest recessions in U.S. history, leaving millions ...



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ValueWalk

Error-Ridden PPP Data Show Taxpayer Funds Funneled to the Wealthy & Well-Connected

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Yesterday, the Trump administration released a limited collection of data about recipients of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) assistance. The program has been rampantly mismanaged from the start, allowing big businesses and publicly-traded companies to exploit the program with little transparency or oversight. The data released yesterday has been riddled with errors, raising questions about the PPP’s integrity. All the while, actual small businesses – especially those run by people of color – have been left to struggle or close entirely.

Q2 2020 hedge fund...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Here's Why QQQ and Large Cap Tech Stocks May Rally Another 10%!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The long-term trend for large-cap tech stocks remains strongly in place.

And despite the steep rally out of the March lows, the index may be headed 10 percent higher.

Today’s chart highlights the $QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF on a “monthly” basis. As you can see, the large-cap tech index touched its lower up-trend channel support in March at (1) before reversing higher.

It may now be targeting the top of the trend channel at (2), which also marks the 261.8 Fibonacci extension (based on 2000 highs and 2002 lows). That Fib level is $290 on $QQQ.

If so, this upside target for $QQQ is still 10% above current prices. Stay tuned!

This article was first written ...



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The Technical Traders

Big Funds to Pull Money OUT of Stocks: 2nd Wave to Hit Economy

Courtesy of Technical Traders

TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:

-Big funds to pull money out of markets.

-Falling dollar to really start to benefit gold

-Gold miners showing signs of life.

-$2,000 gold will change people’s mindsets in gold.

-Gold or silver-backed currency will send metals through the roof.

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Trades – Click Here

...

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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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