Posts Tagged ‘price inflation’

“Contained Depression”

"Contained Depression"

Courtesy of Mish 

Deflated globe

Kevin Feltes, an economist for the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, solicited my opinion on a couple of their recent articles.

Levy comes down on the side of deflation, as do I. However, the devil is in the details, as always. I will go through one of their articles in a point-by-point fashion, stating where I agree and disagree with their analysis.

This is a long post. Please give it some time.

Please consider Widespread Fear of the Wrong Kind of Price Instability.

Levy:

It is not inflation but more disinflation and ultimately deflation that lie ahead in the 2010s.

Inflation worries remain a major part of the market backdrop, and the past year has brought new price stability concerns to investors. During that time, we have written about inflation fears, deflation risks, and the relationships between price trends and monetary policy, fiscal policy, Treasury debt levels, foreign debt holdings, and various other issues. We have argued that rising inflation will not be a threat in the coming years and that disinflation and some deflation are the real worries. Our position remains unchanged.

1. Why It Will Be Very Difficult for Inflation to Accelerate in the Next Few Years

The dominant influence on price trends in the near future and for years to come will be the deflationary influence of chronically high unemployment. The economy not only has gone through a deep recession but also has entered a contained depression, a long period of substandard economic performance, chronic financial problems, and generally high unemployment. The contained depression is likely to last about a decade; it will end in the latter half of the 2010s at the earliest and could stretch into the 2020s

In the years ahead, chronic high unemployment will weigh heavily on labor costs; chronic economic weakness will tend to keep profit margins under pressure and firms focused on cost control; and global instability and large areas of depression (contained or otherwise) will reduce upward pressures on prices of imported commodities and are likely to cause these prices to fall much of the time.

Even if imported commodity prices, most notably oil prices, rise sharply at times, they will not have a large, lasting effect on inflation as long as labor costs are decelerating or actually falling.

Labor costs are the dominant inflation influence not only because


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Why Gold Has a LONG Way to Go

Why Gold Has a LONG Way to Go

Dannii Minogue Switches On The Harrods Christmas Lights

By Jeff Clark, courtesy of Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

A couple weeks ago, I had my TV tuned to a business show that loves to give predictions on the markets and the economy. On that day, one of the program’s regular guests declared it was time to “short” gold, that it had reached its top, and that the precious metals bull market was over. I’ll try to be nice in my rebuttal.
 
So, what was his reasoning: technical analysis of wave counts? falling demand? a telling ratio? sun spots? No, he noted that upscale department store Harrods in London began selling gold bullion and coins “over the counter,” ergo, the top was in. Nice try, “Bert,” but this is amateurish. You really shouldn’t be playing with the big boys if that’s the basis of your call.
 
Yes, gold will someday put in a top, and since the gold price is largely determined by psychology, the end of the bull run will be marked by behavioral types of signals. But calling a top in gold now is like declaring that WWII was over because the Allies won a small skirmish in early 1942. To have made such a statement, based on a small, isolated event, ignored the greater forces that had yet to play out and would have made any journalist or military strategist look foolish indeed.
 
And here’s why Bert looks equally silly today…
 
If the top were in, we’d be in the midst of an all-out Mania. Are we? Do you get the impression there’s a rush into gold by the greater public right now? Are headlines blazing the covers of major magazines pronouncing gold as the new investment king? Has Wall Street gone gaga over gold and silver? I ask because these are the true signs that a trend has entered its final blow-off top and would signal it’s time to get out.
 
I decided to put Bert’s prognostication to the test, and I invite you to play along.
 


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Phil's Favorites

Berkshire in Techland

 

Berkshire in Techland

Courtesy of 

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have studiously avoided the IPO game for almost six full decades now. Here are some quotes from Buffett that should give you some idea of his take on these types of investments:

“You don’t have to really worry about what’s really going on in IPOs. People win lotteries every day…”

and

“If they want to do mathematically unsound things and one person gets lucky… it’s nothing to worry about,” Buffett said. “You don’t want to get into a stupid game just because it’s availa...



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Zero Hedge

GM Considers Expanding Into Electric-Flying Air-Taxis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Like an elderly man wobbling into a party and trying to fit in with young kids by using "hip new lingo", General Motors - days after seeing its partnership with Nikola come under fire - has now come out and said it is going to now be exploring options in the "aerial taxi" market. 

This is, of course, a market that hardly exists. But it certainly sounds cool, doesn't it?

GM will be looking...



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ValueWalk

GoodRX (GDRX) S-1 Breakdown Analysis

By Alex. Originally published at ValueWalk.

GoodRX (GDRX) filed their S-1 earlier this week. I read It so you don’t have to (but you should). Here’s a thread on what I found interesting, fascinating and down-right incredible from the company. I’m starting at zero. Follow along here.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

GDRX Facts & Figures
  • # 1 most downloaded medical app
  • 4.9M Monthly Active Users
  • 80%+ Repeat Activity
  • $20B+ in Consumer Savings
  • 150B daily pricing data point...


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Politics

Faked videos shore up false beliefs about Biden's mental health

 

Faked videos shore up false beliefs about Biden's mental health

Joe Biden faces a disinformation campaign promulgating the false notion that he is in cognitive decline. Gage Skidmore/Flickr, CC BY-SA

By Dustin Carnahan, Michigan State University

From Ronald Reagan in 1984 to Bob Dole in 1996 and even ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Breakout Triggers Buy Signal, Is $3000 Next Target?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

90-days ago this cup & handle pattern was discussed on See It Market when Gold was trading at 1717.

Fast-forward to today and Gold is up 15 percent. So it’s time for an update!

As we pointed out 90-days ago, the initial price magnet for the rally was the 261.8 Fibonacci extension that marked the 2011 high at (1).

That high has served as price resistance for nearly 9 years! …But it may be ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

 

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

Firefighters have battled camp crud before, but COVID-19 brings new risks with the potential for heart and lung damage. Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

By Luke Montrose, Boise State University

Two forces of nature are colliding in the western United States, and wildland firefighters are caught in the middle.

Emerging research suggests that ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Golds bullish trend has worked well in 2020, so what is next over the immediate 3 to 6 months? Will we continue to see a golden future.

The US dollar had been strong into COVID 19, since then the FED has printing a lot of money, and they are also considering YCC (Yield Curve Control), last seen during WW2. [Note YCC lasted 9 years over WW2. WOW, that is a lot of money printing.]

The FED is now forecast to over take competing central banks balance sheets in size, and the release valve will be a falling US dollar. Therefore we should continue to see the US dollar maintain is slow leak down over the next 3 to 6 month, say on the DXY 82 to 88. 

Also, US election worries will add to the weakening of the dollar. Of course extreme chaos in W...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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