Posts Tagged ‘price inflation’

“Contained Depression”

"Contained Depression"

Courtesy of Mish 

Deflated globe

Kevin Feltes, an economist for the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, solicited my opinion on a couple of their recent articles.

Levy comes down on the side of deflation, as do I. However, the devil is in the details, as always. I will go through one of their articles in a point-by-point fashion, stating where I agree and disagree with their analysis.

This is a long post. Please give it some time.

Please consider Widespread Fear of the Wrong Kind of Price Instability.

Levy:

It is not inflation but more disinflation and ultimately deflation that lie ahead in the 2010s.

Inflation worries remain a major part of the market backdrop, and the past year has brought new price stability concerns to investors. During that time, we have written about inflation fears, deflation risks, and the relationships between price trends and monetary policy, fiscal policy, Treasury debt levels, foreign debt holdings, and various other issues. We have argued that rising inflation will not be a threat in the coming years and that disinflation and some deflation are the real worries. Our position remains unchanged.

1. Why It Will Be Very Difficult for Inflation to Accelerate in the Next Few Years

The dominant influence on price trends in the near future and for years to come will be the deflationary influence of chronically high unemployment. The economy not only has gone through a deep recession but also has entered a contained depression, a long period of substandard economic performance, chronic financial problems, and generally high unemployment. The contained depression is likely to last about a decade; it will end in the latter half of the 2010s at the earliest and could stretch into the 2020s

In the years ahead, chronic high unemployment will weigh heavily on labor costs; chronic economic weakness will tend to keep profit margins under pressure and firms focused on cost control; and global instability and large areas of depression (contained or otherwise) will reduce upward pressures on prices of imported commodities and are likely to cause these prices to fall much of the time.

Even if imported commodity prices, most notably oil prices, rise sharply at times, they will not have a large, lasting effect on inflation as long as labor costs are decelerating or actually falling.

Labor costs are the dominant inflation influence not only because


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Why Gold Has a LONG Way to Go

Why Gold Has a LONG Way to Go

Dannii Minogue Switches On The Harrods Christmas Lights

By Jeff Clark, courtesy of Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

A couple weeks ago, I had my TV tuned to a business show that loves to give predictions on the markets and the economy. On that day, one of the program’s regular guests declared it was time to “short” gold, that it had reached its top, and that the precious metals bull market was over. I’ll try to be nice in my rebuttal.
 
So, what was his reasoning: technical analysis of wave counts? falling demand? a telling ratio? sun spots? No, he noted that upscale department store Harrods in London began selling gold bullion and coins “over the counter,” ergo, the top was in. Nice try, “Bert,” but this is amateurish. You really shouldn’t be playing with the big boys if that’s the basis of your call.
 
Yes, gold will someday put in a top, and since the gold price is largely determined by psychology, the end of the bull run will be marked by behavioral types of signals. But calling a top in gold now is like declaring that WWII was over because the Allies won a small skirmish in early 1942. To have made such a statement, based on a small, isolated event, ignored the greater forces that had yet to play out and would have made any journalist or military strategist look foolish indeed.
 
And here’s why Bert looks equally silly today…
 
If the top were in, we’d be in the midst of an all-out Mania. Are we? Do you get the impression there’s a rush into gold by the greater public right now? Are headlines blazing the covers of major magazines pronouncing gold as the new investment king? Has Wall Street gone gaga over gold and silver? I ask because these are the true signs that a trend has entered its final blow-off top and would signal it’s time to get out.
 
I decided to put Bert’s prognostication to the test, and I invite you to play along.
 


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Zero Hedge

Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Climb To 481 As Outbreak Spreads To Macau, Hong Kong

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

China's National Health Commission has revised the total of coronavirus cases higher for at least the second time on Wednesday: there are now 473 confirmed patients infected in China alone, though the death toll remained at 9, Reuters reports.

Internationally, the total number of ca...



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Phil's Favorites

Three Things You Can Learn This Week

 

Three Things You Can Learn This Week

Courtesy of 

Three weeks into January and the squad is firing on all cylinders. Three things you can learn this week courtesy of Nick, Michael and Ben:

You will often hear that there is something wrong or artificial about the current secular bull market because of the relatively high concentration of the FAAMG stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Three of the five have attained trillion dollar market caps and the other two are getting cl...



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The Technical Traders

Junior Gold Miners Setting Up For Another Rally

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our recent research suggests the US stock market may be entering a period of volatility that may include a broad market rotation/reversion event.  We believe this volatility event could begin to happen anytime over the next 10 to 30+ days.  The rally in the US stock market ending 2019 and carrying into 2020 appears to be setting up a “rally to a peak” type of price pattern. Please take a minute to review the following articles we’ve posted recently about this topic and how it relates to opportunities in
Metals/Miners.

January 20, 2020: ...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga Pro's Top 5 Stocks To Watch For Wed., Jan. 22, 2020: NFLX, TSLA, NNVC, SKT, SPCE

Courtesy of Benzinga

Benzinga Pro's Stocks To Watch For Wednesday

  • Netflix (NFLX) - Shares were up just 0.4% following a Q4 beat and mixed Q1 guidance. The company said it expects Q1 global streaming paid net subscriber additions of about 7 million subs.
  • Tesla (TSLA) - With Tesla shares up 5% in pre-market activity, the company's market cap, at market open, will hit $100 billion for the first time in its history. While a Neutral-rated Wedbush analyst, Daniel Ives, raised his price target on the stock from $370 to $550 this morning, this news item isn't necessarily driving the stock Wednesday as this analyst was mostly playing catch up after not having updated his price targ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Hang Seng Index Double Topping At 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Hang Seng Index be “Double Topping” at its 2007 highs? Possible, yet not proven!

The Hang Seng Index attempted to break above its 2007 highs at (1), only to see a key reversal pattern take place the following month.

After the reversal pattern, the index has created a series of lower highs, just below falling resistance.

So far this month, the index is attempting to break above falling resistance, where it could be created a bearish reversal monthly pattern at (2).

What would it take to prove that a double top was i...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

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Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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