Posts Tagged ‘price-to-book’

The Outlook is Not Up, But Very Widely Sideways

Courtesy of John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Introduction, by my friend Tom Burger

A good Hussman commentary. Hussman’s valuation metrics are very solid, in my opinion — sort of a variation on Benjamin Graham’s technique of using a multi-year earnings average. But forget the mathematics: his valuation metric told us that stocks were wildly overvalued immediately preceding the recent market crash, and modestly undervalued at the low. That ought to be worth something. I remember the so-called "Fed Model" said that stocks were significantly undervalued at the market peak, and wildly undervalued at the last market bottom. Doesn’t take a whole lot of thought to evaluate those two options based on recent experience. Hussman has also published some good reports that show how his valuation metric would have performed during the Great Depression — quite well.
 
Hussman provides an excellent discussion on what the recent Treasury and Fed moves mean in terms of balance sheet changes for banks, Treasury, and Fed. In general, he tries to clear up some oft-repeated fallacies about cash flows, liquidity, and what not. The air-waves are apparently full of utter nonsense. (I don’t listen to the chatter). I think Hussman is an unusually clear thinker and an extremely knowledgeable guy.
 
Tom, at Applying the Lessons of Free Market Economics

The Outlook is Not Up, But Very Widely Sideways

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
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Valuation Update: We estimate that the S&P 500 is currently priced to deliver total returns over the next decade in the range of 6.5-9.0%, centered at an expected total return of about 7.8% annually. Stocks are modestly overvalued here, except on metrics that assume a permanent recovery to 2007′s record profit margins (which were about 50% above the historical norm).

On normalized profit margins, sustainable S&P 500 earnings are slightly above $60 on the index. That’s certainly higher than the 7 bucks of net earnings that companies in the index have reported over the past 52 weeks, but unfortunately, even at current prices, the S&P 500 is near 16 times normalized earnings.

You can get that basic figure a lot of ways. Currently, book value on the S&P 500 is slightly above $500. Outside of the past 15 years, when the economy was building up to…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Megaphone Breakout Continues, As It Tests 77-Year Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

I’ve heard many times over the past 39-years I’ve been in the financial services business that charts have memories? Is it true they do? Is it possible that they have very long-term memories?

This theory looks to be put to a big test by the chart above, which looks at the Dow Jones Industrial Index since 1910.

The Dow has spent the majority of the past 77-years, inside of rising channel (1). While inside of this channel, it looks to have created two very long-term megaphone patterns.

It broke above the first megaphone pattern in the early 1980s, where ...



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Phil's Favorites

As Fed Pumps $3 Trillion into Repo Market, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Practice Borrowing from the Fed's Discount Window

Courtesy of Pam Martens

James Gorman (left) Chairman and CEO, Morgan Stanley; David Solomon (right) Chairman and CEO, Goldman Sachs

Last week, Jim Grant, the Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, was interviewed by CNBC’s Rick Santelli. Grant said that since September 17, the Fed has pumped “upwards of $3 trillion” in repo loans to Wall Street. Santelli asked if the Fed had effectively nationalized the repo market. Grant said “there is no more price discovery and we are dealing with administe...



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Zero Hedge

If Not-QE Is QE, Then Is Not-A-Blowoff-Top A Blowoff Top?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets?

When is "Not-QE" QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story that Abraham L...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Insider Scoop

HP Rejects Xerox's Buyout Offer: Experts Debate What's Next

Courtesy of Benzinga

HP Inc. (NYSE: HPQ) rejected Xerox Holdings Corp (NYSE: XRX)'s $33-billion takeout offer Sunday, and experts are divided on what will occur next in the ongoing saga between two tech...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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