Posts Tagged ‘Prices Paid’

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COLLAPSE AMID SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COLLAPSE AMID SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH

Courtesy of Rom Badilla of Bondsquawk.com

Inflation expectations as indicated by the yield differential between 10-Year Treasuries and 10-Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) continues to decline.  The decrease is attributed to a decline in inflation concerns fueled in part, by the drop in today’s release by the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing activity data.

The manufacturing sector growth is showing signs of slowing.  ISM reported its manufacturing index declined to a reading of 56.2 in June from a print of 59.7 in the prior month.  Today’s release disappointed economist expectations of 59.0.  While the June figure is still showing economic expansion since a reading above 50 indicates growth, today’s release is the 2nd consecutive drop after peaking in April at 60.4.  Equally important is the decline in the ISM Prices Paid component which is having a huge effect on inflation expectations.

Several weeks ago (posted here), we discussed that the Prices Paid component of the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Index (released June 17) dropped significantly from a May reading of 35.5 to 10 signaling easing pricing pressures.  By charting the prices paid component to the breakeven rate, we can see a correlation between the two. The two exhibits a 0.79 correlation where a reading of 1.0 suggests a direct step for step relationship and -1.0 indicates an inverse relationship. A reading of zero suggests no relationship at all. A decline in the prices paid component reading suggests falling inflation expectations and even lower bond yields.  As posted on June 23rd, several days after the Philly Fed release, we concluded that given the level of the prices paid component, the breakeven rate could fall 20 to 30 basis points.  Furthermore, given that the 10-Year was trading at 3.10-3.15 percent at that time, a decline in inflation expectations could point to a “10-Year Treasury yield of sub-three percent, reaching or even surpassing recent lows”.

In similar fashion, today’s release of the ISM’s Prices Paid component confirms our concern of lower inflation readings and hence a lower breakeven rate.  The ISM Prices Paid component (which is highly correlated to the Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid component by 0.87 over the past 10 years) dropped to a reading of 57.0 from 77.5 in the prior month.  Today’s lower print further disappointed economists as surveys were at 70.0.

2010 07 01 ISM PP 300x214 INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COLLAPSE AMID SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH

ISM Prices Paid Index – Historical Chart (Monthly


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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus check 2: Get it together, Congress

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Many Americans are waiting for coronavirus stimulus check number 2, and the June jobs report caused some to think there won’t be one. However, it sounds like a second round of IRS stimulus checks is still possible. In fact, we might even be able to say that it’s likely.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Mixed unemployment numbers

The Department of Labor showed that the U.S. economy added 4.8 million jobs last month, which is the largest increase ever recorded. ...



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Zero Hedge

"Panic-Driven Hoarding Of Bank Notes": People Aren't Abandoning Cash During The Pandemic, They're Socking It Away

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Habits change in the midst of a global recession, not to mention a global pandemic. We have already looked at how the pandemic has caused seismic shifts in many industries, but it is also causing a shift in how people think about, handle and (in this case) hoard cash. 

While we have been told non-stop that the pandemic is going to prompt the demise of paper currency and the words "digital dollar" continue to make appearances in government white papers and studies, the Bank of England found that there was a...



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Phil's Favorites

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

 

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

Different countries report coronavirus data differently. Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Marion Boisseau-Sierra, Cambridge Judge Business School

Watching scientists, politicians and journalists struggle to compare national death rates from the coronavirus pandemic, I had an acute case of déjà vu. Though the virus may be novel, the confusion generated by inconsistent data standards is anything but. It’s something I&...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

 

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

Different countries report coronavirus data differently. Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Marion Boisseau-Sierra, Cambridge Judge Business School

Watching scientists, politicians and journalists struggle to compare national death rates from the coronavirus pandemic, I had an acute case of déjà vu. Though the virus may be novel, the confusion generated by inconsistent data standards is anything but. It’s something I&...



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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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The Technical Traders

Wild Volatility Continues As US Markets Attempt To Establish New Trend

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the US and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions.  Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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