Posts Tagged ‘Prices Paid’

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COLLAPSE AMID SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COLLAPSE AMID SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH

Courtesy of Rom Badilla of Bondsquawk.com

Inflation expectations as indicated by the yield differential between 10-Year Treasuries and 10-Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) continues to decline.  The decrease is attributed to a decline in inflation concerns fueled in part, by the drop in today’s release by the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing activity data.

The manufacturing sector growth is showing signs of slowing.  ISM reported its manufacturing index declined to a reading of 56.2 in June from a print of 59.7 in the prior month.  Today’s release disappointed economist expectations of 59.0.  While the June figure is still showing economic expansion since a reading above 50 indicates growth, today’s release is the 2nd consecutive drop after peaking in April at 60.4.  Equally important is the decline in the ISM Prices Paid component which is having a huge effect on inflation expectations.

Several weeks ago (posted here), we discussed that the Prices Paid component of the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Index (released June 17) dropped significantly from a May reading of 35.5 to 10 signaling easing pricing pressures.  By charting the prices paid component to the breakeven rate, we can see a correlation between the two. The two exhibits a 0.79 correlation where a reading of 1.0 suggests a direct step for step relationship and -1.0 indicates an inverse relationship. A reading of zero suggests no relationship at all. A decline in the prices paid component reading suggests falling inflation expectations and even lower bond yields.  As posted on June 23rd, several days after the Philly Fed release, we concluded that given the level of the prices paid component, the breakeven rate could fall 20 to 30 basis points.  Furthermore, given that the 10-Year was trading at 3.10-3.15 percent at that time, a decline in inflation expectations could point to a “10-Year Treasury yield of sub-three percent, reaching or even surpassing recent lows”.

In similar fashion, today’s release of the ISM’s Prices Paid component confirms our concern of lower inflation readings and hence a lower breakeven rate.  The ISM Prices Paid component (which is highly correlated to the Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid component by 0.87 over the past 10 years) dropped to a reading of 57.0 from 77.5 in the prior month.  Today’s lower print further disappointed economists as surveys were at 70.0.

2010 07 01 ISM PP 300x214 INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COLLAPSE AMID SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH

ISM Prices Paid Index – Historical Chart (Monthly


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Phil's Favorites

Is Robinhood Good For Investors?

 

Is Robinhood Good For Investors?

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Michael Batnick · Is Robinhood Good For Investors?  

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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

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Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

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Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Silver Price Reversal Bring Another Historic Decline?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

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It might be nothing… or it might be something! Especially for Silver, which didn’t follow Gold’s lead in making all-time highs.

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By Mauldin Economics. Originally published at ValueWalk.

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Nikola Shares Soar On New GM MOU, But GM Steps Away From Equity Stake, Badger

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Nikola signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding with General Motors for a global supply agreement related to the integration of GM’s Hydrotec fuel-cell system into Nikola’s commercial semi-trucks.

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Biotech/COVID-19

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Now there is a third possible vaccine for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sanjay Mishra, Vanderbilt University

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Chart School

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By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

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Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

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Courtesy of Benzinga

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