Posts Tagged ‘property bubble’

China’s Top 10 Business Stories in 2011

Courtesy of Patrick Chovanec

As the year comes to a close, and we look forward to 2012, I continue the tradition I started last year and offer a brief look at the top stories that shaped China’s business and economic climate in 2011:

1. High-Speed Rail.  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times — China’s ambitious high-speed rail program embodied the highest highs and the lowest lows the country experienced this year.  In January, President Obama cited the planned 20,000km network in his annual State of the Union address as a prime example of how America need to catch up to the Chinese.  As if to prove his point, June saw the grand opening of the much-heralded Beijing-Shanghai line, timed to coincide with the Communist Party’s 90th anniversary celebrations.   But even before then, there were signs of trouble on the horizon, starting in February when the powerful head of China’s railway ministry — the project’s godfather — was abruptly fired as part of a massive corruption scandal.  Then a crash on a line near Wenzhou, in which at least 35 people were killed, unleashed a wave of fury on the Chinese internet, forcing the government to re-think the entire project amid charges of cover-up and sloppy construction.  By November, with high-speed trains running at chronically low capacity and construction debts piling up, the railway ministry was asking Beijing for a rumored RMB 800 billion (US$ 126 billion) bailout just to pay the money it owed suppliers.

2.  Inflation.  Few issues preoccupied the average Chinese citizen — or Chinese policymakers — this year as much as rapidly rising prices.   The consumer inflation rate, which began the year just shy of 5%,rose to 6.5% by July.  The increase was led by food prices, particularly pork – a staple part of the Chinese diet — which skyrocketed by more than 50%.  Keenly aware of the potential for popular unrest, Beijing made containing prices its top economic priority — even if that meant reining in growth.  Throughout the year, the central bank repeatedly raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements, in an effort to bring the pace of credit expansion back under control.  The powerful state planning bureau leaned heavily on Chinese companies not to raise prices, and even hit consumer goods giant Unilever with a stiff antitrust fine for publicly discussing possible price hikes.  While CPI did decline to 4.2% by…
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17 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

David Rosenberg (the bear) takes a walk on the bullish side and here’s what he finds to be optimistic about. – Ilene 

17 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

Bull in bear costume

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Regular readers know I tend to focus on the negative aspects of the markets as opposed to the positives – anyone could put on a smile and skip through oncoming traffic, but the truth is, the investment world can be a very dangerous place so skipping along as if there are no risks involved is beyond foolish.  But ignoring the positives is equally foolish.  In this world of heightened market risks and particularly clear uncertainty here are 17  reasons to consider the bullish case (via David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff):

  • Congress extending jobless benefits (yet again).
  • Polls showing the GoP can take the House and the Senate in November.
  • Some Democrats now want the tax hikes for 2011 to be delayed.
  • Cap and trade is dead.
  • Cameron’s popularity in the U.K. and market reaction there is setting an example for others regarding budgetary reform.
  • China’s success in curbing its property bubble without bursting it.
  • Growing confidence that the emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, will be able to ‘decouple’ this time around. We heard this from more than just one CEO on our recent trip to NYC and Asian thumbprints were all over the positive news these past few weeks out of the likes of FedEx and UPS.
  • Renewed stability in Eurozone debt and money markets – including successful bond auctions amongst the Club Med members.
  • Clarity with respect to European bank vulnerability.
  • Signs that consumer credit delinquency rates in the U.S. are rolling over.
  • Mortgage delinquencies down five quarters in a row in California to a three-year low.
  • The BP oil spill moving off the front pages.
  • The financial regulation bill behind us and Goldman deciding to settle –more uncertainty out of the way.
  • Widespread refutation of the ECRI as a leading indicator … even among the architects of the index! There is tremendous conviction now that a double-dip will be averted, even though 85% of the data releases in the past month have come in below expectations.
  • Earnings season living up to expectations, especially among some key large-caps in the tech/industrial space – Microsoft, AT&T, CAT, and 3M are being viewed as game changers (especially 3M’s upped guidance).


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China Pumps the Brakes, Time for a Little Honesty With Ourselves

China Pumps the Brakes, Time for a Little Honesty With Ourselves

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

So China sees a potential bubble in stocks and real estate.  That’s funny, I remember saying there was a property bubble in China just a couple of days ago…

Today is one of those days where investors reassess their sector exposure.  The news that China’s economic commanders have just told the banks to cut back on loans may have more of an effect on a US portfolio than many may think.

Hold off on patting yourself on the back for avoiding all those China ADRs that have invaded the IBD Top 100 – plenty of US stocks have doubled over the last year and they certainly didn’t do that because of the make believe recovery here in the States.

China’s decision to slow the train down in terms of stock and property values will have an impact on the velocity of oil companies, infrastructure companies, miners, steel companies, copper companies and even agricultural plays. 

Panic is not the name of the game, analysis is.  You may be surprised to look over your portfolio and notice that a great deal of it is geared toward the growth in emerging markets.  We hit new highs yesterday on the S&P and the last fund flow data I heard showed the first positive net money flow into equities in a long time. 

Translation: everybody’s long.

Whether you believe that this is a hiccup or that China is truly concerned about engineering a soft landing, today may be a good time to get real about what you own and why.  Let’s be honest with ourselves about where our exposure really is, whether our stocks are headquartered in China or not.

Read Also:

Of Course Chinese Real Estate is a Bubble. Grow Up.  (TRB)

 


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New home loans up 1,600pc in Shanghai

No bubble here.  You may need to register with scmp.com to read the entire articles. – Ilene

(Thank you, Terry)

New home loans up 1,600pc in Shanghai

Busy Shanghai street

Mainland banks in Shanghai’s red-hot housing market lent 99.58 billion yuan (HK$113.2 billion) in new mortgages last year, up dramatically from 5.8 billion yuan in 2008, as home seekers rushed to buy and prices hit new highs.

The banks lent 38.93 billion yuan to buyers of new residential properties and 60.65 billion yuan to buyers of second-hand homes, the Shanghai office of the People’s Bank of China said yesterday.

Lending soared more than 1,600 per cent compared with 2008, when the property market and overall economy were hit hard by the global financial crisis, the central bank said.

Full article here.>>

Beofre you start worrying, know this. (Classic Chinese oxymoronic title.)

No sign of bubble despite soaring home prices in Shanghai

Shanghai’s residential market shows no signs of a bubble despite a hefty price increase because demand remains strong, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Price increases "do not mean that the market has reached extreme valuations that typify a bubble", the real estate service firm said in a report yesterday. "Overall, the policy environment will evolve to keep prices from growing too quickly."..

Soaring home prices on the mainland have sparked asset bubble worries among the country’s top leaders, including Premier Wen Jiabao who promised to take action.

According to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services, average housing prices in the city jumped 65.3 per cent last month from a year earlier, hitting a record 20,187 yuan (HK$22,930) per square metre.

Shanghai Securities News reported earlier this month that the mainland would probably start imposing property tax in selective cities this year, a heavy-handed move to cool the red-hot housing market…

More here.>>

And rest assured, the non-bubble is going to be curbed.

Mainland to curb lending binge, says chief regulator

Mainland will slow its massive lending spree and step up monitoring of banks as it tries to prevent speculative bubbles in real estate and other assets while keeping the country’s economic recovery on track, a top regulator said on Wednesday.

Mainland’s banking system is healthy despite last year’s explosive growth in credit and regulators could manage the risks, said Liu Mingkang, chairman of the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission…

After handing out some


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Here It Comes (You Were Just Warned Folks)

Here It Comes (You Were Just Warned Folks)

warningCourtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

I don’t know how much clear it gets than this:

By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) — U.S. regulators including the Federal Reserve warned banks to guard against possible losses from an end to low interest rates and reduce exposure or raise capital if needed.

“In the current environment of historically low short-term interest rates, it is important for institutions to have robust processes for measuring and, where necessary, mitigating their exposure to potential increases in interest rates,” the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, which includes the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other agencies, said in a statement today.

Let me point out a few things.

  1. We have never seen a crash and rebound in US stock market history like what we have just experienced, except once.  That "once" was 1929/1930.  What followed next was a grueling grind – not a crash, but a grind that never ended, and in which the market lost more than 80% of it’s value.  Those who argue "the bigger the dive the bigger the bounce" forget that the only true comparison against what we have just seen was in fact the prelude to a grinding 90%+ overall decline. 
  2. If you believe in "long wave" cycles – that is, Kondratieff cycles, we have precisely followed the several-hundred-year long pattern though its latest incarnation, with the 1982-2000ish period being "Autumn."  Winter follows fall.  These cycles seem to happen mostly because all (or essentially all) of the people who lived through the last cycle’s horrors are dead.  Unless we have found a way to break a cycle that has endured far longer than our nation, we’re right where we should be – which incidentally aligns with what happened in 1929/30 as well.  This means that while there may be ups and downs we have not bottomed – not by a long shot – no matter what people tell you. 
  3. Interest rates can only go up from zero.  That should be obvious.  Rising rates are not positive for equities and multiple expansion.
  4. The Financials are getting a tremendous bid the last few days, presumably on the premise that "employment is at least somewhat stabilizing."  With zero short rates and a steep yield curve, this means they make


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Phil's Favorites

So You Wanna Be a Stock Picker

 

So You Wanna Be a Stock Picker

Courtesy of 

The stock market has been a treacherous place for the last few months. You wouldn’t know it by looking at the indexes.

I wrote this opening salvo earlier in the week when the S&P 500 was hovering near all-time highs. This morning, due to a new variant in South Africa, stocks are selling off sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the people’s index, is down over 1,000 points, sitting 5% below the all-time highs from earlier this month.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen these names on the leader and laggard board and I was hoping to never...



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Zero Hedge

"The Omicron Variant" - Magic Pills, Or Solving The Africa Problem?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

Yesterday the WHO labelled the sars-cov-2 variant B.1.1.529 as a “variant of concern” and officially named it “Omicron”.

This was as entirely predictable as it is completely meaningless. The “variants” are just tools to stretch the story out and keep people on their toes.

...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far

 

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far Scientists find variants by sequencing samples from people that have tested positive for the virus. Lightspring/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, Stellenbosch University; Cathrine Scheepers, University of the Witwatersrand; Jinal Bhiman, National Institute for Communicable Diseases; ...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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