Posts Tagged ‘“quantitive easing”’

“The New Bubble Is In Stimulants…..” Rosenberg

"The New Bubble Is In Stimulants….." Rosenberg

Courtesy of Jan-Martin Feddersen at Immobilienblasen

I want to add that the bubble is also in outright & hidden bailouts…..Nothing really new but hours/days away from the next mega bailout ( FHA ) a sober summary how wasteful the resources are "squandered"..…..

government spending

H/T Gary Varvel

Rosenberg

So the U.S. economy is growing again. But how can it not be growing with all the dramatic stimulus? The question should be “why only 3.5%”?

> If you can stand more details you can read "A Sham GDP For A Sham Economy"……

> Für einen teiferen Einblick was die USA veranstalten müssen um überhaupt ein positives GDP Ergebnis auf die Beine zu stellen kann das in "A Sham GDP For A Sham Economy"…… nachlesen….

Now the U.S. government is going to not just extend but indeed expand the tax credits for homeownership. This is happening at a time when the fiscal deficit is 10% of GDP. Simply amazing. The sector already receives more in the way of government support than any other area, and it adds zero to the capital stock or productivity growth. Oh, but it makes us better citizens. Renting must be for losers.

And then we see that the Fed’s TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) program that began in March just broke the $90 billion mark. This has basically supported 75% of the growth in the asset-backed market, almost evenly split between auto credit and credit cards because at over a 130% household liability-to-disposable income ratio, the government seems to believe we don’t have enough debt on our balance sheets. Honestly — you can’t make this stuff up.

But here is the real kicker. The Federal Housing Authority (FHA). If you’re wondering how it is that the U.S. housing market has managed to rise from the ashes, well, consider that the government-insured FHA program moved into high gear this year and has basically filled the gap vacated by the private sector. (where default rates are really becoming a problem) should not go unnoticed (and they weren’t by the staff at the WSJ that uncovered the growing problems in yesterday’s edition — FHA Digging Out After Loans Sour on page A2).

[No Easy Exit for Government as Housing Market's Savior]

The efforts to allow practically anyone to secure a mortgage not just


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,




When Monetizing 12% Percent Of GDP Isn´t Enough…….

When Monetizing 12% Percent Of GDP Isn´t Enough…….

Courtesy of Jan-Martin Feddersen at Immobilienblasen

Not quite an "Exit Strategy"……. This Cartoon on "Green Shoots" is spot on…..  As long as the pound & gilts are not crashing this will continue…..I´m pretty sure Bernanke is watching the market reaction very closely…. Especially with the Fed running low on ammo….. Read A 300-year-old example of quantitative easing…. John Law, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke… via The Mess That Greenspan Made as a reminder what can happen…

trillions of dollars

The governor’s insatiable appetite for QE FT Alphaville

The Governor invited the Committee to vote on the proposition that:

Bank Rate should be maintained at 0.5%;

The Bank of England should finance a further £50 billion of asset purchases by the creation of central bank reserves, implying a total quantity of £175 billion of such asset purchases. The Bank should seek to complete the additional purchases within the next three months.

Six members of the Committee (Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Kate Barker, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher and Andrew Sentance) voted in favour of the proposition. Three members of the Committee (the Governor, Tim Besley and David Miles) voted against, preferring to increase the size of the asset purchase programme by £75 billion to a total of £200 billion.

Yep, Mervyn King, together with Besley and Miles wanted the rate of monetary stimulus increasing, not just extending at the current rate of £50bn-a-quarter. That was good for half a cent off sterling versus the dollar and a third of a cent v the euro on Wednesday morning. Gilts, of course, spiked higher.

Somebody stop me Alice Cook from the great blog UK Bubble

The extraordinary thing about UK monetary policy today is how close it is shadowing fiscal policy. This year, the Bank of England printing presses will produce roughly the same amount of new money as this year’s fiscal deficit. Or to put it more bluntly, the private sector have, on a net basis, stopped lending money to the government.

The Casey Report

> The estimated issuance is based on this "optimitic" forecast…. Especially compared to the IMF, OECD, Bloomberg


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Leader Hitting Brick Wall of Resistance and Going To Reverse Its Trend?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is leadership running into a brick wall of resistance and about to pull an important reversal? A strong bullish trend looks to be experiencing an important breakout test!

The trend for SMH remains up as it has spent the past 10-years inside of rising channel (1).

This chart looks at Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on a monthly basis since inception. Fibonacci was applied to the 2000 highs and 2008 lows.

Fibonacci was applied to it’s 2000 highs and 2008 lows.

The rally off the March lows, which tested the 2000 highs, has it currently testing the und...



more from Kimble C.S.

Phil's Favorites

This Time It's Different: Maybe? ...John Street Capital Joins Me On Panic With Friends

 

This Time It’s Different: Maybe? …John Street Capital Joins Me On Panic With Friends

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

(Originally posted on July 10, 2020)

This made me laugh yesterday…

In the shoulda, coulda, woulda department today…a $500,000 investment in the Amazon IPO would be worth $1 billion today if you held it.

Onwards&helli...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

How deadly is COVID-19? A biostatistician explores the question

 

How deadly is COVID-19? A biostatistician explores the question

The number of confirmed and probable deaths from COVID-19 in New York City was 23,247 as of July 10, which is more than eight times the number who died in the 9/11 attack. Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Ron Fricker, Virginia Tech

The latest statistics, as of July 10, show COVID-19-related deaths in U.S. are just under 1,000 per day nationally, which is down from a peak averag...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Zero Hedge

Taleb: Tail-Risk Hedges Are Now A Necessity

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com,

Tail risk hedges are designed to only pay off when the markets suddenly plunge, so many investors don’t have the stomach to carry them. However, one expert on tail risk funds advises investors not to be in the market right now if they aren’t using a tail hedge.

No V-shaped recov...

more from Tyler

Digital Currencies

Chainlink Crypto Surges To A New All-Time High - Here's Why...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Joseph Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

Surging volume, price discovery, and new partnerships pushed Chainlink price to a new all-time high at $8.48...

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

...

more from Bitcoin

The Technical Traders

Gold & Silver Measured Moves

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The next few weeks are certain to attract much attention to precious metals.  Hardly anyone can argue that Gold has not experienced an incredible upside price rally over the last 12+ months.  Recently, Gold closed above $1800 for the first time since 2011.  Our researchers believe the next target is $1935.  Keep reading to learn why we believe this is the next major price target for Gold.

Gold Weekly Price Analysis

Over the past 18+ months, Gold continues to develop price patterns that seem to be replicating going forward.  This pattern consists of an advance in price followed by consolidation/rotation in price to set up a new momentum base.  The example of this price advance ...



more from Tech. Traders

ValueWalk

How Banks Can Mitigate Credit Losses

By David Donovan. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Without question, the economic impact caused by COVID-19 has rocked companies and consumers across the globe. Big companies are drawing heavily on credit lines. Mom and pop shops are struggling to stay afloat, despite the government funding small business loans to the tune of $659 billion, of which $130 billion is still unclaimed. Companies are now trying to figure out how they can proactively address high risk borrowers to avoid massive defaults that will inevitably putting banks in an even stickier predicament.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

With more than 40% of the econo...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.

Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch 

But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.

Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.

The 36 month simple moving a...

more from Chart School

Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



more from Lee

Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



more from Our Members

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.