Posts Tagged ‘Raymond James’

MARKETS RARELY BOTTOM ON A FRIDAY

MARKETS RARELY BOTTOM ON A FRIDAY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Old mare

Jeff Saut at Raymond James, entered the year very cautious and continues to think we are in the middle range of a selling stampede. In addition he points to the interesting fact that markets rarely bottom on a Friday.  Many pundits have pointed to the action in Friday’s market as being very similar to other large volume trend reversals off of a panic bottom.  Saut is not so convinced:

“Recall that “selling stampedes” tend to last 17 – 25 sessions, with only one- to three-session counter-trend rallies, before they exhaust themselves on the downside.  Therefore, we “put blinders on” to last Friday’s late-day upside reversal, consistent with our mantra of “never on a Friday.” That mantra was learned from numerous Friday “head fakes” implying that markets rarely bottom on a Friday once they are into a downtrend. Rather, participants tend to go home over the weekend, brood about their losses, and show up the following week in “sell mode.” So, while the markets may attempt to build on Friday’s late reversal, we have little confidence that any rally will last more than one to three sessions since today is only session 14 from the trading top of January 19th.”

Saut is also suspect of the new secular bull market chatter:

“we remain suspect this is the first leg of a new secular bull market. Rather, we think it is just another “bull move” within the context of the range-bound stock market we have been mired in for the last 10 years. Another driver of Friday’s reversal could have been the “break” below 10,000 on the DJIA, which is also a psychological support level that should be respected.”

Bear and bull sculptures outside the Frankfurt stock exchange

Backing up his continued near-term bearish thesis is action in the metals.  Saut made a prescient call in mid January when he referred to the copper markets as being overheated and warranting some caution in equity markets:

“Then there is ‘Dr. Copper,’ the metal with a Ph.D. in economics, which recently recorded a 12-month rolling rate of return in excess of 150%. Historically such a ‘copper cropper’ has marked a ‘trading top’ in copper and telegraphed caution


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS – THE BEAR ISN’T HERE YET

CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS – THE BEAR ISN’T HERE YET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Polar bear

Strategists at Credit Suisse entered 2010 with a very cautious tone and an outlook similar to our own – 2010 would be a year of halves.  The first half would be a continuation of the trends that helped the market surge in 2009 while headwinds would build near H2 2010 and result in market declines.   The recent downturn in stocks hasn’t changed their outlook and they view the sell-off as a buying opportunity (see JP Morgan’s similar outlook here as well as Raymond James’ outlook here).

The team’s tactical indicators are mildly bullish at current levels and quickly approaching levels that were buys in 2009:

Our tacticals are mildly supportive of equities:

Interestingly, the % of nyse stocks trading above their 10-week MA (currently at 32%) is around similar levels where market bottomed during recent corrections (end of Oct it troughed at 30%, in early July 09 at 37%). Normally a buy signal is when this indicator falls below 20% but perhaps most of the correction has already occurred??

CS1 CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS   THE BEAR ISNT HERE YET

Sentiment data also supports their bullish thesis as the majority of investors remain net bearish:

CS2 CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS   THE BEAR ISNT HERE YET

Like us, Credit Suisse sees continuing strong trends in the earnings picture which makes it very difficult to formulate a thesis for a substantial decline in stocks.  Credit Suisse notes the very strong trend in earnings expectations, the high level of “better than expected” earnings and the uptrend in the upgrade cycle.  Bespoke recently noted the outperformance on Monday’s over the last few months.  This has been largely due to the upgrade cycle.  Yesterday alone, there were 41 upgrades of S&P 500 firms versus 13 downgrades according to Briefing.com.  One of the primary reasons we focus a great deal of our research at TPC on the earnings cycle is due to the high influence analysts have on the market.  According to Credit Suisse, analysts on average, upgrade stocks for 11 months prior to the beginning of a new uptrend in the bull market cycle.  This means we could see a strong continued trend in upgrades until Q2 of 2010 – roughly around the same time where we believe earnings outperformance will…
continue reading


Tags: , , ,




 
 
 

Chart School

Bulls Buying The Bounce Offered Little

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday's recovery set the groundwork for a bounce but the gap higher took away most of the opportunity the bullish set-up offered. Weakness at this point would be bearish so wouldn't be buying but if in then hold until the morning breakout gap closes and reassess.

The S&P generated a small uptick in relative performance but not enough to trigger a 'buy' signal yet. Other technials are mixed with 'buy' signals in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume are offset by 'sell' triggers in +DI/-DI and Stochastics.

...

more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits ep 26

 

Animal Spirits ep 26

Courtesy of 

If you want to know what I’m doing this morning, I’m listening to the brand new episode of Animal Spirits. Our friend Morgan Housel jumped into the mix with Michael and Ben this week to record it. Three of the smartest people I know talking about the investing topics of the week – what’s better than this?

Make sure to subscribe so you never miss a new episode every week.

...

more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Simon Black On "The Coming Boom In Gold Prices..."

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In June 1884, a local farmer named Jan Gerritt Bantjes discovered gold on his property in a quiet corner of the South African Republic.

Though no one had any idea at the time, Bantjes’ farm was located on a vast geological formation known as the Witwatersrand Basin… which just happens to contain the world’s largest known gold reserves.

Within a few months, other local farmers star...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

LeMaitre Vascular's Lack Of Near-Term Catalysts Pushes Stifel To The Sidelines

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LMAT Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Dow Rises 250 Points; Chipotle Shares Spike Higher 40 Stocks Moving In Thursday's Mid-Day Session LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. 2018 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Slides ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Crypto Billionaire Sued By VC Giant Sequoia Over Collapsed Funding Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Marie Huillet, CoinTelegraph.com

Venture capital firm Sequoia is suing Zhao Changpeng, the CEO and founder of Binance, currently the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trade volume, for allege...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



more from Biotech

ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>