Posts Tagged ‘reality’

The Road to World War III – The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to Play

The Road to World War III – The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to Play

By David DeGraw (h/t ZH)

The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.

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Editor’s Note: The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.

I: Economic Imperial Operations

The Road to World War III - The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to PlayWhen we analyze our current crisis, focusing on the past few years of economic activity blinds us to the history and context that are vital to understanding the root cause. What we have been experiencing is not the result of an unforeseen economic crash that appeared out of the blue with the collapse of the housing market. It was certainly not brought on by people who bought homes they couldn’t afford. To frame this crisis around a debate on economic theory misses the point entirely. To even blame it on greedy bankers,…
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A Picture’s Worth A Thousand Words

A Picture’s Worth A Thousand Words

Courtesy of Chris Pavese

Quick follow up on our Earnings Revisions post from yesterday.  In that post, we explained that:

Consensus earnings estimates for 2011 and 2012 are still greater than $95 and $108, respectively, at the same time that GDP estimates are plummeting (although still don’t face the harsh economic reality).  To put these figures into perspective, analysts were forecasting a near 20% decline in earnings at the market’s trough.  Today, expectations are for 22% growth in the year ahead.

We show an example of this optimism below. Cummins is a global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of engines and related technology.  The company’s engines are found in a wide range of vehicles and equipment from emergency vehicles to 18-wheelers, berry pickers to 360-ton mining haul trucks.  Management has done a tremendous job managing through the crisis.  Costs have been cut relentlessly, resulting in a leaner organization with greater operating leverage.  The balance sheet is rock solid.  Not to mention its image as a ‘safe’ play on the secular growth of emerging market infrastructure development.  It’s no wonder the street is in love with the stock.

We have a difficult time arguing any of the points above.  Our concern is that the bar is set awfully high just as we stare right into a cyclical slowdown at best and more likely, something much more problematic.  Note the company’s historic EBIT margins below.  Margins increased from 1.4% at the start of the decade to a peak of 9.4% as the global economy marched straight up through 2006 on the back of the Chinese growth engine fueled by a credit-obsessed American consumer.  Then . . . something changed.  And something changed quite quickly.  As economic growth screeched to a halt in 2008, margins followed, moving in a straight line back to 1.7% in Q3-09.  But with ‘a little’ help from the greatest monetary and fiscal stimulus in economic history, orders reappeared and a stream-lined Cummins surprised analysts quarter after quarter, in route to a magical V-Shaped Recovery.

So what’s next?  In classic fashion, consensus has basically straight-lined that v-shaped recovery over the next few years, as shown by the last piece of the chart highlighted in red and representing consensus estimates through 2011.  Wall Street bulls – of which there…
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Morgan Stanley On Why The US Will Not Be Japan, And Why Treasuries Are Extremely Rich (Yet Pitches A 6:1 Hedge In Case Of Error)

Morgan Stanley On Why The US Will Not Be Japan, And Why Treasuries Are Extremely Rich (Yet Pitches A 6:1 Deflation Hedge)

Japan.

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

We previously presented a piece by SocGen’s Albert Edwards that claimed that there is nothing now but to sit back, relax, and watch as the US becomes another Japan, as asset prices tumble, gripped by the vortex of relentless deflation. Sure enough, the one biggest bear on Treasuries for the past year, Morgan Stanley, is quick to come out with a piece titled: "Are We Turning Japanese, We Don’t Think So." Of course, with the 10 Year trading at the tightest level in years, the 2 Year at record tights, and the firm’s all out bet on curve steepening an outright disaster, the question of just how much credibility the firm has left with clients is debatable.

Below is Jim Caron’s brief overview of why Edwards and all those who see a deflationary tide sweeping the US are wrong. Yet, in what seems a first, Morgan Stanley presents two possible trades for those with access to the CMS and swaption market, in the very off case, that deflation does ultimately win.

Morgan Stanley’s rebuttal of the "Japan is coming" case:

There are many arguments that suggest the US is going the way of Japan, and while UST yield valuations may appear expensive, a regime shift has occurred and we should use the deflation experience of Japan as a guideline. We respect this point of view, and our colleagues in Japan provide some compelling charts.

In Exhibit 3 we show how the richening in the JGB 5y led to a significant flattening of the curve. Ultimately CPI turned negative and Japan did in fact move into a period of deflation. It makes sense for the 5y to outperform, as investors believed in a low rate and inflation regime for an extended period. Most money is managed 5 years and in, which thus makes the 5y point so attractive in low rate regimes because it represents the greatest opportunity for money managers to own duration, yield and return. The same is happening in the US as the 5y point is richening extensively as investors seem to be surrendering to a low rate and low return environment. But this may be premature.

Note that it took ~2-years before the


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SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud On Subprime Mortgages, Paulson & Co. Implicated

SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud On Subprime Mortgages, Paulson & Co. Implicated

Courtesy of Zero Hedge  

Washington, D.C., April 16, 2010 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Goldman, Sachs & Co. and one of its vice presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the U.S. housing market was beginning to falter.

The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Goldman Sachs failed to disclose to investors vital information about the CDO, in particular the role that a major hedge fund played in the portfolio selection process and the fact that the hedge fund had taken a short position against the CDO.

"The product was new and complex but the deception and conflicts are old and simple," said Robert Khuzami, Director of the Division of Enforcement. "Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party." 

Kenneth Lench, Chief of the SEC’s Structured and New Products Unit, added, "The SEC continues to investigate the practices of investment banks and others involved in the securitization of complex financial products tied to the U.S. housing market as it was beginning to show signs of distress."

The SEC alleges that one of the world’s largest hedge funds, Paulson & Co., paid Goldman Sachs to structure a transaction in which Paulson & Co. could take short positions against mortgage securities chosen by Paulson & Co. based on a belief that the securities would experience credit events.

According to the SEC’s complaint, filed in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the marketing materials for the CDO known as ABACUS 2007-AC1 (ABACUS) all represented that the RMBS portfolio underlying the CDO was selected by ACA Management LLC (ACA), a third party with expertise in analyzing credit risk in RMBS. The SEC alleges that undisclosed in the marketing materials and unbeknownst to investors, the Paulson & Co. hedge fund, which was poised to benefit if the RMBS defaulted, played a significant role in selecting which RMBS should make up the portfolio.

The SEC’s complaint alleges that after participating in the…
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Why Investors Think What They Think

Why Investors Think What They Think (Because It’s What Other Investors Think)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

More Michael Mauboussin…  This time explaining the power of peer pressure to make you think stupid things.

(Specifically, and more alarmingly, the power of what other people think to actually make you PERCEIVE the world differently--even when the "reality" you are perceiving is obviously false.)
 

Aaron Task, TT: In his latest book, "Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition," Michael Mauboussin, describes the 8 common mistakes investors make.

In the accompanying video, we drill down on one particularly nettlesome problem that even the most sophisticated investors share with junior high students: The powerful influence of peer pressure.

Based on the work of renowned Psychologist Solomon Asch in the 1940s and 1950s, behavioral economists know social pressure can make a person say something they know to be false. A more recent version of the same experiments at Emory University’s fMRI lab reaffirmed the results and showed the group’s answers changed people’s perception right vs. wrong. Even those participants who remained independent had higher activity in the fear center of their brains when bucking the group’s conventional wisdom, Mauboussin notes.

In an world where "everyone" thinks they’re a contrarian investor, the implications are profound…

See Also: The 8 Boneheaded Mistakes Investors Make

 


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Phil's Favorites

Salesforce Confirms Deal To Buy Slack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

It's official. After reportedly entering high-level, late-stage talks, Salesforce, one of the newest members of the Dow 30, has agreed to buy Slack, a former Silicon Valley "unicorn" that IPO'd last year.

Shares of the Slack have surged in after-hours trade on the news, as if the massive surge seen following the initial reports that the two companies were in talks wasn't enough.

Here are the juicy details: $27.7 billion in cash and stock, giving the corporate software giant a popular workplace-communications platform in one of the biggest technology deals...



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Zero Hedge

Salesforce Confirms Deal To Buy Slack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

It's official. After reportedly entering high-level, late-stage talks, Salesforce, one of the newest members of the Dow 30, has agreed to buy Slack, a former Silicon Valley "unicorn" that IPO'd last year.

Shares of the Slack have surged in after-hours trade on the news, as if the massive surge seen following the initial reports that the two companies were in talks wasn't enough.

Here are the juicy details: $27.7 billion in cash and stock, giving the corporate software giant a popular workplace-communications platform in one of the biggest technology deals...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful - but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

 

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful – but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

Rapid tests for COVID-19 are easy to administer and give fast results. AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File

Courtesy of Bonnie LaFleur, University of Arizona and Katherine Ellingson, University of Ari...



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ValueWalk

Have Technology Stocks Peaked? Texas Instruments At A Tipping-Point

By Pierre Raymond. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Broad Market Index was up 2.27% last week and 55% of stocks out-performed the index.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Another light week for SEC filings as we wait for the December 8th deadline for companies to report fiscal quarters ending in October. These are mostly retailers and their appearance this week will mark the end of update for the third quarter.

Average sales growth is low and still falling. The proportion of companies recording a sales growth increase was 32%; up from 25% last quarter. This might mark the low point in...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Silver Price Reversal Bring Another Historic Decline?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Precious metals caught lightning in a bottle for the first 7 months of the year, with Gold notching new all-time highs and Silver making to multi-year highs in August. But both have reversed lower since peaking in August and investors should pay attention.

It might be nothing… or it might be something! Especially for Silver, which didn’t follow Gold’s lead in making all-time highs.

Today’s chart is a long-term “monthly” chart of Silver. As you can see, it was hi-yo Silver for the first 7 months ...



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Politics

Mythmakers: The Men Who Created Donald J. Trump

 

Mythmakers: The Men Who Created Donald J. Trump

Mark Burnett, Jeff Zucker, and the Trustwashing of a Fake President

Courtesy of Greg Olear, Prevail, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 12 June 2020, 08:06:43 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Interesting (2)



Date Found: Saturday, 13 June 2020, 12:27:02 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Recession Forecasts Time Frame



Date Found: Monday, 15 June 2020, 11:07:52 PM

...

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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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