Thanks super helpful re: UGN example…..other inflation/market-correction-defensive-related play you threw out that has jammed UP in less than a month is TITN 6/14 $15 puts, up 40%. Excuse my enthusiasm but haven't had those types of gains in multiple plays in years let alone days doing it on my own…….maybe I should host the PSW infomercial!!!!
stevegeb200
Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!
Iflantheman
Phil – BTW, the new STP/LTP coupled with the income portfolio is Perfect! I do not trade all of them, very few actually since I work during market hours. However, following the trades real-time is very educational. I did enter the ABX call if you recall, I rolled to July on that nonsense news that sent it tumbling. Out today for 110% gain (2.00 stop) not counting covering the loss from the earlier roll. Nonetheless, a good trade. Keep it up…. Thanks
JFawcett
I have an under 50k account that im trading I dont do all the trades but pick and chose to keep diversified. With what Ive learned from being a member I average $400 to $800 per week trading futures
BertII
Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!
Jromeha
Phil// Cashing out of my LT holdings have been going on for over two weeks. However, I have elected not to cash all of the holdings including my AAPL, Jan 16 Short Puts at $470 and $480. Plus, I am being opportunistic in selectively putting on those positions for beat down stocks by selling 2016 Puts. That said, YTD harvested profits now stand at $135k on a current account balance of $683K or a 19.81% YTD return. Thanks for your expertise in teaching me how to be patient, be the banker, but also not being greedy, cashing out and harvesting profits.
IHS4GOD
100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!
SSDirk
I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!
craigsa620
Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.
Autolander
Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.
Ricpar
Hey Phil, You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!
GClay
Peter D, Just a note of thanks. Eight weeks ago, I entered my first RUT strangles, when the RUT was at 625. Tomorrow, I will let them expire, with the RUT at 625 (give or take). I didn't care when the RUT went to 650, nor when it dropped to 590. Easiest, no touch money I've made in a long time.
Judahbenhur
I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.
Dennis
Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.
Steve
I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.
Captain Mogul
Phil/thankyou. Phil, I went over the recording of last weeks webinar. I liked it a lot and wanted to thank you. I thought the case studies (company reviews) were detailed, I learned more about selling puts process and also what happens if stock continues to go down after that, I liked the fact that we discuss so many different avenues like stocks, optiond, futures, oil, commodities etc… I replayed portions of it multiple times to make sure I was grasping it but wanted to say good job. Thanks…
Nramanuja
Peace of mind / I have a portfolio mainly consisting of long term long calls, short term short calls and puts, and long term BCS. Three years, ago when I started my journey on this board I would be freaking out panicking as to what to do, as many of the short calls are ITM, Three years later (today) I look at the screen and serenely process the information. Three years ago, I inevitably made the wrong decisions which cost me a lot of money. Three years on I calmly roll the positions to whatever makes sense. No drama, no hair pulling, and a great cost saver. I guess they call that the power of education.
Winston
I discovered PSW while reading up on the US economy and how it applies to all the poor folk of the world and to myself as a humble UK desk slave. This year I put time into learning options trading. I upgraded (with great administrative difficulty!) my stock dealing account to deal options. Now I am an avid reader of PSW and subscribed for voyeur membership. Initially feeling out of my depth struggling to keep up with the peculiar language of options traders, I unsubscribed feeling a little under confident and uncertain if the small stake I have to invest in options could generate enough to justify my PSW subscription. Nevertheless, I've benefited considerably from the member's material. From a small number of initial trades, I've exceeded profit targets enough to consider re-subscribing in some capacity. Thanks for the knowledge and more than anything I appreciate the human angle, the humour and the ecologically sympathetic approach rarely seen in other financial media. Best wishes all - Jon
Jon
All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.
Seaquill
Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!
Neverworkagain
Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?
Craigzooka
Aapl/Phil Thanks for your advice, always appreciated. So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop. Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50 Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed. And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings) So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock. Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not. Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun! More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset. Thanks!
Maya1
Here I have learned and look differently at things. Over the years being with PSW I have first of all learned and gained in knowledge of trading. This to me is one of the biggest gains. I still remember the play on Caesar Palace, paid my trip to Atlanta!
Yodi
Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane! Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.
Seeking Truth
Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!
Josiah
Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.
Chasw
Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!
Jfawcett
I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.
KMisko
Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !
Gel1
Phil, I don't know if I told you lately but you da man! I'm doing so much better following your guidelines. It's like you actually know what you are talking about. 8-) I've tried a lot of services and none of them are as comprehensive or honest AND successful. I appreciate all youz other guys/gals input as well…learning tons as a relative newbie to this game.
Aclend
by ilene - December 14th, 2010 1:14 pm
Courtesy of Reggie Middleton, posted at Zero Hedge and originally posted at Reggie’s BoomBustBlog
Goldman has recently issued a strong buy recommendation on Apple, offering a $430 price target. I have been on record many times stating that Apples will be facing the toughest competition of its existence since Microsoft nearly put them out of business. This, of course, appears to be in direct contravention to the Goldman Sachs call which just happened to come out the day Apple hits its all time high. Being that Apple has more than its fair share of fans who ignore common sense, this is enough to set the stock on fire. The question still remains though, “Is Goldman right?” Goldman very well could be right, but not for the reasons most retail investors believe. Despite overwhelming evidence plus plain old history to the contrary, many investors and mainstream media outlets still take the sell side of Wall Street at their word. Sell side analysts are marketing arms for the brokerage sales force, the investment banking sales force and the traders who move inventory in and out of their respective banks. What they are not are wealth and strategy advisers for retail and institutional investors. Their historical performance clearly illustrates this, thus their is not need to take this entrepreneurial investor and blogger’s word for it. Well, for those of you who either don’t know of me or don’t know of Goldman, here’s a quick recap of Reggie Middleton vs. Goldman Sachs:
Who was more accurate concerning Google? Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010
Who was more accurate concerning Lehman Brothers, the Ivy league, ivory tower boys doing God’s work or that blogger with the smart ass mouth from Brooklyn?
Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.
As a matter of fact, who was more accurate during the ENTIRE Asset Securitization and Credit Crisis of the last three years? We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street’s sell side research:…
 Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
 del.icio.us
|
|
by ilene - August 31st, 2010 3:46 pm
Courtesy of Mish
.jpg)
Here is an interesting snip from August 31 Market Commentary by Art Cashin for UBS. Sorry, no link.
Monday’s market evaporated nearly all the gains from Friday’s rally. Despite lighter volume, it was a 90% down day. That means the bears got a lopsided advantage in negative breadth and negative volume. In Friday’s rally, the bulls had had a similar 90% advantage. Robert McHugh of Main Line Investors says 26 of the last 88 trading days have been 90% days – one way or another. Any wonder the public is wary.
Are these 90% Days a Good Thing?
While the big boys push the market around, small investors have thrown in the towel and are not coming back.
Market volume now consists of black boxes pushing all stocks one way or the other on 30% of the days. Is this a good thing? For who? Investors or Goldman Sachs?
Holding the Line
Today, the 1040 level on the S&P held for about the 8th time on "fabulous" news consumer confidence rose to 53. Bear in mind number in the 70′s are typical of recession lows.
How long the 1040 level can hold is a mystery, but each bounce seems to be weaker and weaker.
Last Friday, I noted Market Cheers 1.6% Growth; Treasuries Hammered; while asking "what’s next?"
We have a partial answer already. Treasuries have regained the entire selloff that started (and ended) on the "great news" that 2nd quarter GDP was +1.6% instead of the expected +1.4%. Never mind that growth was revised down twice from above +2.5% to +1.6%.
Looking ahead, I expect GDP to be negative in the 3rd quarter.
Art Cashin’s 17.6 Year Cycles
A little over a year ago Art Cashin commented Dow Trapped in 17-Year Cycle
Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, offered CNBC his stock-market insights. Cashin decried the idea of a second stimulus, in light of the "infamous" first attempt.
"There was no ‘stimulus’ in the stimulus package. It was mostly social engineering," Cashin said. Thus, talk of a new plan is shaking markets with fears of even more debt — with "nothing to show for it."
Cashin revisited his theory of "the 17.6-year cycle."
"It’s like the Biblical story of the fat
…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
by ilene - August 30th, 2010 5:40 pm
.jpg)
Courtesy of Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge
Anywhere one turns these days, bashing HFT is the new market normal. Having written 150 articles on the topic, beginning in April 2009, we are happy to have brought the world’s attention to this most dangerous of market aberrations. Yet until the SEC finally bans the practices of micro churning, quote stuffing, positive feedback loop chasing, flash trading, subpennying, DMA accessing, and all other aspects conceived merely to provide some market participants with an unfair advantage over everyone else, the fight against HFT must continue.
Which is why we draw your attention to two items: the first is a paper by Bluemont Capital "The Marginalizing of the Individual Investor" in which the authors question if HFT has distorted true market valuation (yes) and to what degree. Some relevant soundbites: "Unfortunately, high-frequency trader interaction with computerized algorithms of large-cap financial institutions is providing opportunities for high-speed, virtually undetectable market manipulation", "At a minimum, computerized high-frequency and algorithmic trading are undermining traditional value investing strategies. Short-term liquidity and data movements are distorting information on real business performance", "Essentially, high-frequency trading platforms function as positive feedback loops. Engineers treat positive feedback loops as inherently unstable, as each positive response generates stepped-up repetition of the same actions. Positive feedback loops result in an ever- expanding balloon, but like all balloons, the risk of bursting increases with the balloon’s size." It concludes that the "continuing advances in computerized trading pose challenges for regulators throughout the world—and leave individual investors marginalized… Regulators should not only seek to assure that markets are able to continue to function under stress, but they also need to devise remedial actions that protect individual investors who have fundamentally different objectives from the high-turnover objectives of high frequency traders and computerized algorithms."
The other notable item is the appearance of our friends at Nanex on ABC radio over in Australia, where firm founder Eric Hunsader discusses the previously highlighted concepts of latency arbitrage as a potential progenitor to the May 6 crash, as well as possible ways that the NBBO arbitrage could have provided for unfair and illegal mispricing opportunities for a select few.
Bluemont Capital "On the Marginalizing of the Individual Investor":
Full August 29 interview with Eric Hunsader on Latency Arbitrage…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
by ilene - August 26th, 2010 9:02 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
The latest anticipated weekly outflow from equity mutual funds just hit a one month high of $2.7 billion, as reported by ICI, and with that, YTD redemptions by equity investors have hit over $50 billion. Domestic equity mutual funds have not seen a net positive retail inflow since April 28, yet despite this the market has been substantially rangebound and until last week. What is notable is that even during times of relative stock outperformance, courtesy of whoever it is that is left buying stocks, be it HFT algos, or Primary Dealers pumped with cheap Fed liquidity (and don’t forget today is another "free $2 billion courtesy of POMO" day), the investing public refuses to be drawn into owning stocks. CNBC has now failed to sucker its viewers into the stock ponzi for 16 weeks in a row and rising. The clear capital rotation winner- the bond bubble, but that is the topic for another week.
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
by ilene - June 15th, 2010 2:55 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi’s Wall Street Sector Selector
MarketWatch.com reports today that retail investors “appear to be scaling back their trading activity in June.”
Trading is down approximately -30% in so far in June compared to May, according to a report from Sandler Oneil who says, ”We suspect the May 6 ‘flash crash’ as well as the market performance since then … have shaken the retail investor’s confidence” and that “June trading levels could be at multi-year low levels.”
Not good news probably for ETrade (ETFCD) or Schawb (SCHW).
This report comes on top of recent news that Morgan Stanley (MS) is closing 300 offices and laying off 1200 employees, along with lighter than normal volume in major equities markets and fund outflows of over $1 Billion for the week ending June 2nd as reported by the Investment Company Institute.
It’s a “deer in the headlights” kind of environment wherein retail investors are abandoning the domestic equity market and that could make it a perfect time to “buy” since the “dumb money” almost always gets it wrong.
However, my opinion is that you can’t just buy anything and hold on, “buy and hold” or “buy and hope.”
I’ve said recently that current conditions offer enormous opportunity and that many millionaires will be created over the next few years. But they won’t be buy and hold investors. I’m afraid those days are gone, maybe forever, replaced by this new volatility and challenging markets that will very likely require a disciplined trading plan for success.
John
*****
See also: Meltup "Abysmal Volume" Summer Approaches, Even As Americans Now Openly Shun Stocks, Zero Hedge
John Nyaradi publishes Wall Street Sector Selector, an online newsletter specializing in sector rotation trading using ETFs. John is offering PSW readers a 30 Day Free Membership and Free Special Report, "Slay the Dragon Within: How to Make Your Emotions Work for You Instead of Against You." His service provides signals for going long and short using standard and leveraged ETFs. Free Membership Subscribers also get access to the Wall Street Sector Selector Monthly Webinar and a second Report, "How To Avoid the Buy and Hold Trap." - Ilene
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
by ilene - June 10th, 2010 10:42 pm
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker
Yesterday was a great example of a new characteristic of this market that is truly disturbing - I’m calling it "Adult Swim". On many days, at or around 3PM, the market becomes unsafe for human beings as the churning high frequency trading machines jump in to do their thing. This is like the public pool, when all children are called out of the water so that the big kids can cannonball and thrash about – the lifeguard blows his whistle to signal that it’s time for Adult Swim.
On many recent days, we’ve seen the program traders run amok in the last hour of trading, hitting stops and just generally bringing the ruckus.
Take a look at yesterday’s intraday chart of the major averages below for an example:
The damage to the psyche of individual investors and the "slow money" that used to support the markets is snowballing into what may become an outright protest. The $25 billion in US stock mutual fund outflows since the beginning of May is the body I’ll produce as evidence of a crime.
My question to the proponents of the tradebot society is this:
Once you’ve chased the last 401(k) holders, the last retail investors, the last retirees holding blue chips out of this market, whom will you trade with?
Whose stop loss orders will you discover and trigger? Whom will you abuse and scalp? Each other? Actually, I’d very much like to see that.
The 3 PM Adult Swim hour is destroying what last shreds of faith in this market remain.
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
by ilene - October 28th, 2009 12:06 am
Here’s Karl’s take on Goldman Sachs’s story that they are doing us all a favor: Oh Really? – Ilene
Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker
Now comes Goldman with yet another pack of misdirection:
Goldman told the Securities and Exchange Commission that computer-driven trading and an increase in stock transactions that occur off public exchanges has reduced consumer costs, increased competition and brought more liquidity to markets.
“The investing community (especially retail) has benefited from the evolving market structure and industry competition,” Goldman Sachs said in a summary of the 55-page report submitted to the agency.
You have to love the general gist of this thing.
Let’s break down what’s really going on here, because it is both instructive and, in my opinion, necessary.
Dark pools and High Frequency Trading reduce transparency. The argument raised by Goldman and others is that these venues "improve price" for retail investors (and others), such as mutual funds (held by many retail investors.) The problem is that this is the wrong metric to apply.
Trading in established stocks is in fact a negative sum game. That is, for every share I get a "better price" on as a buyer, the seller gets a lower price. Worse, since there there are commissions and fees involved in all transactions, the net effect of each trade is to dilute the total capital base in the system.
An example will serve to show this:
$1,100 in total money in the system.
100 shares @ $10 "quoted".
Taxes, commissions and exchange fees of 1% of the transaction.
The buyer and seller transact all 100 shares. There is now $1,090 in total money (the other $10 has been siphoned off in commissions and fees.)
Do it again. There is now $1,080 (another $10 has been siphoned off.)
Perform 10 transactions and oops – there isn’t enough money to transact an 11th time.
Now here’s the rub – the amount of "spread" that the market maker, which would be Goldman (among many others) can make is entirely dependent on the ability to hide the actual bid and offer by real investors!
That is, let’s assume that of the $10 in commissions and fees Goldman…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
by ilene - July 12th, 2009 5:33 pm
Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report!
Posted by TraderMark at Fund My Mutual Fund
If you’ve been around these markets for a while you generally know by the time the retail investor is piling into a group, chasing huge scores – it’s generally time to run away (at the least) and for the 5% among us who short, begin to think seriously about betting against the small fry. It sounds cold, but this is just the way it tends to work … trust me, I used to be one of these people, so I learned the hard (read: expensive) way. As we read the piece below let us trust in the fact that none of these people were buying in early March, but most likely jumped in when it was "safe" a month or so later.
Contrast the lemmings running into "what’s hot" with what you’ve been reading here – about a month ago I was saying commodities is crowded and I would not want to be exposed highly there. People who heeded that thought process avoided the sand blasting that has gone on for 3 weeks running in this sector. While I do like these emerging
I don’t really talk much bonds but while junk bonds (highest risk) has provided the most juice the past 3-4 months, its basically been a parallel to the stock
…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
December 18th, 2018 7:40 am
Courtesy of Zero Hedge
As members of the FOMC gather at the Eccles building for the first day of the central bank's December policy meeting, during which they're widely expected to vote to raise the Fed funds rate for the fourth time this year, President Trump is once again urging the central bank to reconsider - this time urging Chairman Powell & Co. to read an editorial in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal calling for a pause in rate hikes (which in turn followed a similar piece from Fed "hawks" Stanley Druckenmiller and Kevin Warsh).
I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. Als...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site
market
shadows, archives,
more.
Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and
content sharing
programs.
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese