Posts Tagged ‘risks of systemic failure’

The Transition to Risk

The Transition to Risk

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith Of Two Minds

high angle view of traffic driving on a freeway in snowfall

The hidden transition to ever-higher systemic risk was the major story of 2009: nothing’s been fixed, and the risks of systemic failure are rising every day.

On this last day of 2009, I want to address what I call the transition to risk.

One analogy is the way that the risks of suffering a fatal heart attack rise in a completely hidden way. The body doesn’t signal the slow accumulation of fatty deposits in arteries; the process is silent. Nor is there any conscious awareness that arteries are hardening. The accretion of risk is slow, steady, invisible--until it’s too late.

Some transitions to risk are highly visible. If you’re driving on winding mountain roads and suddenly enter a thick fog bank which cuts your visibility to a few feet, the risks posed by continuing at high speed skyrocket.

The prudent person slows down or even pulls well off the road; the imprudent person ends up a statistic.

Then there are situations in which risk is building but someone with an asymmetric stake in the game convinces everyone the risk remains low to serve their own needs.

The boat is leaking, the winds are rising, but the skipper’s profits require completion of the passage. So he reassures the nervous passengers that everything is fine, the weather is actually improving, and the ship’s pumps can easily handle the leaks.

In an economy with a mainstream media controlled by a handful of corporations and a government financial policy in the hands of a few secretive manipulators, this "reassurance" comes in the form of blatant propaganda.

Here is an example from today’s "news": (a.k.a. disinformation)

Jobless claims fall unexpectedly as layoffs ease.

The number of jobless workers continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, dropped by 57,000 to 4.9 million, also better than the increase that analysts expected. This supports the "headline" propaganda: "Jobless claims fall unexpectedly as layoffs ease."

But the propaganda/disinformation masks the reality that it’s actually 10 million people who are receiving benefits, and that number increased by 200,000:

But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people that have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.


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Phil's Favorites

South Africa is caught in the global hype of the fourth industrial revolution

 

South Africa is caught in the global hype of the fourth industrial revolution

There’s nothing inherent in Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies that will result in economic growth. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alison Gillwald, University of Cape Town

South Africa is caught up in the global hype of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). This is distracting it from the unfinished business of redressing inequality and creating the preconditions for an inclusive digital economy and society.

Reinvented by Klaus Schwab of the World Econo...



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Zero Hedge

Yield Curve Tumbles Back Into Inversion As Fed Sparks Mid-Cycle Maelstrom

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Today's chaos was brought to you by the the words "mid-cycle" (market threw a tantrum that The Fed Minutes were not more dovish) and "inverted" (the much-watched 2s10s curve tumbled back into inversion)  and the number '16' (line in the sand for VIX and gamma)

Chinese stocks trod water overnight...

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks surged on the day, led by Italy...

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Is Knocking On Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In 2013, Gold broke below its 23 percent Fibonacci retracement level and a bearish trend change took place at (1).

This was the beginning of a bigger decline that saw gold fall another 450 dollars.

Nearly six years later, Gold returns to this “breakdown” level in hopes of making it a new “breakout” level at (2).

If Gold can breakout at (2) it will send a very bullish message to the market.

Stay tuned – gold bulls are knocking on heaven’s door!

If pattern opportunities in Gold, Silver, Copper and Miners is imp...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 21, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $1.22 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion.
  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2 per share on revenue of $20.94 billion.
  • Target Corporation (NYS...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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The Technical Traders

Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

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Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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