Posts Tagged ‘RMBS’

Mixed Action on ETF Country Plays

Today’s tickers: EFA, EEM, DYN & RMBS

EFA – iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund – One investor appears nervous over a continued slide lower for global stocks and used a put option combination in the index fund tracking Europe, Asia and Far Eastern markets in an effort to profit from a further 10% slide. The iShares ETF is trading at an unchanged $50.89 on Friday while one investor has paid a $980,000 net premium to help reduce the cost of taking a nearby bearish position on the prospects for the fund. If the fund does crash to $45.00 before the option play expires in September, the investor stands to make profits of $4,020,000. The position could be full or partial protection against a long stock position in which case options profits are offset by rising losses as the share price declines. In order to make a profit at expiration the investor must see the share price settle at less than $49.02.

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund – An alternative to the strategy above was offered possibly by the same investor using a put spread in the emerging markets ETF. With the fund having rebounded from about $40.00 per share yesterday, the fund gave of 6.2% of its recovery. This seems to have provoked this investor to seek short-term gains by betting against a further slip in emerging markets. The investor again focused on the September expiration and with shares trading now at $40.63 used the $38.00 and $33.00 strikes to write a credit spread. Instead of buying the higher strike, it appears to have been sold in exchange for puts at the lower $33.00 strike. The purpose is to bank the net premium of 49 cents per contract from making the play. The investor this time faces losses beneath an expiration price $37.51 and see them increase to a maximum of $4.51 per contract in the event markets do face a meltdown over late summer. In order to reach breakeven the shares would need to decline by 7.7% from today’s trading price and to leave the investor facing maximum pain would need to slide by 18.8%.

DYN – Dynegy Inc. – The announcement by Blackstone that it was making a $4.50 a share bid for the power generating company created a groundswell of demand for shares in Dynegy, which rose 60% pennies short of the deal price.…
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SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud On Subprime Mortgages, Paulson & Co. Implicated

SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud On Subprime Mortgages, Paulson & Co. Implicated

Courtesy of Zero Hedge  

Washington, D.C., April 16, 2010 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Goldman, Sachs & Co. and one of its vice presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the U.S. housing market was beginning to falter.

The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Goldman Sachs failed to disclose to investors vital information about the CDO, in particular the role that a major hedge fund played in the portfolio selection process and the fact that the hedge fund had taken a short position against the CDO.

"The product was new and complex but the deception and conflicts are old and simple," said Robert Khuzami, Director of the Division of Enforcement. "Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party." 

Kenneth Lench, Chief of the SEC’s Structured and New Products Unit, added, "The SEC continues to investigate the practices of investment banks and others involved in the securitization of complex financial products tied to the U.S. housing market as it was beginning to show signs of distress."

The SEC alleges that one of the world’s largest hedge funds, Paulson & Co., paid Goldman Sachs to structure a transaction in which Paulson & Co. could take short positions against mortgage securities chosen by Paulson & Co. based on a belief that the securities would experience credit events.

According to the SEC’s complaint, filed in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the marketing materials for the CDO known as ABACUS 2007-AC1 (ABACUS) all represented that the RMBS portfolio underlying the CDO was selected by ACA Management LLC (ACA), a third party with expertise in analyzing credit risk in RMBS. The SEC alleges that undisclosed in the marketing materials and unbeknownst to investors, the Paulson & Co. hedge fund, which was poised to benefit if the RMBS defaulted, played a significant role in selecting which RMBS should make up the portfolio.

The SEC’s complaint alleges that after participating in the…
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Wild Weekly Wrap Up – Only Halfway Through January!

Wheee, what a ride!

The week can be neatly summed up by my 1:35 comment to Members in yesterday's chat, summed the week up quite nicely as I said: "So funny, a whole week of gains I thought were ridiculous wiped out in 4 hours."  Of course it's easy to laugh when you play the market correctly – as I had said in the morning post, we had cashed out into Thursday's run up and planned on going bearish through the weekend but it turned out we got our sell-off early, jumping the $100K Virtual Portfolio, for example, up 12% in one day – enough to send us back to cash rather than risk a weekend reversal

We laid the groundwork for this little sell-off in last weekend's posts as we put up an aggressive Buy List for Members but in my regular weekend post we emphasized the need to cover our buys with "Disaster Hedges" as we were heading to the tops I had predicted when I published the "Last Charts of the Decade," where I set resistance target of Dow 10,457, S&P 1,135, Nasdaq 2,314, NYSE 7,389 and Russell 638.  As you can see, I pretty much hit them on the head, other than the Dow but that's because our year-old 5% rule calculations did not account for the change in the Dow that replaced C and GM with TRV and CVX, who added about 100 Dow points since their inclusion so we started using 10,549 this month and we'll make it 10,557 for today's chart, which makes perfect sense looking at this group (I added the Transports as they are fell right off our 2,000 target, giving us the early warning that things were not right):

As you can see, the 5% Rule rules!  I will apologize for being such a grump this week but the rally was really starting to annoy me as it was so blatantly forced up through our levels without a proper test that is was really getting me down about the markets.  I don't mind that the markets are manipulated, that's been going on since markets were invented – it's stupid and destructive manipulation that bothers me, the kind that, long term, destroys more investor confidence than it builds and squanders…
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Blackberry Bull Banks Profits as RIMM Shares Rebound

Today’s tickers: RIMM, BAC, VZ, CAG, NYB, RMBS, TEVA, DIS & NVDA

RIMM – Research in Motion Limited – Blackberry maker, Research in Motion, revealed a distribution deal with Digital China – a unit of Legend Holdings – aimed at expanding its business in China. Shares stood 2.5% higher to $60.22 thirty minutes before the closing bell. One option investor banked profits on a previously established call position in the January 2010 contract today. It appears the trader originally purchased 25,000 calls at the January 80 strike for 30 cents apiece on December 4, 2009. Today the investor shed all 25,000 lots for 43 cents each. Net profits on the closing sale amount to 13 cents per contract for total gains of $325,000. Option implied volatility on the stock is up slightly on the day to 59.91%.

BAC – Bank of America Corp. – A bearish risk reversal on Bank of America this afternoon suggests one investor expects shares to suffer significant declines by expiration in May 2010. BAC’s shares slipped 2% to $15.98 in late-day trading. It appears the pessimistic player shed 7,500 calls at the May 22 strike for 36 cents apiece in order to partially offset the cost of buying the same number of put options at the lower May 13 strike for 70 cents premium each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 34 cents per contract. The effective breakeven point on the put options of $12.66 is 20.77% lower than the current price per BAC share. The investor responsible for the reversal could be taking an extremely bearish bet on Bank of America. If this is the case, the investor expects shares to nosedive down to lows experienced at the end of July 2009. Alternatively, the trader could be long the stock, and financing cheap downside protection by selling covered call options. The long puts serve as protection in case the stock tumbles, whereas the short calls suggest the investor is happy to have the underlying stock position called from him at $22.00 each. Shares of BAC would need to rally 38% from the current price in order for the March 22 strike calls to land in-the-money.

VZ – Verizon Communications, Inc. – Option traders displayed mixed near-term sentiment on the communications company this afternoon. Shares edged 2% higher to a new 52-week high of $33.36 with less than one hour remaining in the…
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Two Week Wrap-Up – Trading Our Range

Your "crystal ball" was dead-on with the insights into the report on jobs as well as the initial rise and then correction. Truly impressive.  – Champstar2

We didn't have a weekly wrap-up last week because of the holiday.

In our Nov 21st Wrap-Up, I had said next week we’ll be watching to see if we can get more bullish above our 25% lines at: Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600 and that became the bottom of our new range while I sent out a 9:41 Alert to our Members on Nov 23rd sticking with our upside targets of Dow 10,471, S&P 1,113, Nas 2,205, NYSE 7,266 and Russell 605.  That has been a very reliable range to play for the past two weeks and we've been having a good time playing both ends of it.

Rather than just wrapping up this week's moves, I thought we'd add the prior week as the pattern is very much the same (and it was the same the week before) so it certainly bears (oops, don't say bears!) studying.  Of course, when I talk about patterns, I don't just mean the chart pattern where we have all of our gains for the week on Monday and Tuesday on low volume and then larger volume selling for the rest of the week as the funds who pump the futures up dump their ill-gotten gains on retail investors.  I'm talking about the global new patterns, as reported by the MSM, that make this sort of manipulation so effective.  It's not that I'm so good at predicting things – it's really just that I'm good at spotting the BS…

Monday - Stuffing the Futures for Thanksgiving

I was pointing out that morning that 90% of the market gains since October had been coming on a single day each week and how a lot of that was happening in the very thinly-traded Futures market, where a few thousand shares traded overnight are able to lever the entire US market up by Trillions of Dollars.  It's a very sick and broken system that has been seized by manipulators to yank investors around, making sure retail investors have little ability to participate in these wild market moves as the game is already over by the time trading starts the next
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Plum Creek Options Active

Today’s tickers: PCL, TBT, GE, OXY, C, ODP, RMBS & S

PCL – Plum Creek Timber – It appears that an investor sold a 15,000 lots strangle on paper-manufacturer, Plum Creek using February options. The implied volatility reading on the share price of 38% remains above the 31% on the share price performance. Call premium at the 35 strike was sold at 1.15 and pushed it lower by 4% on the day while the 10% decline in put premium was accounted for by simultaneous selling of puts at the 25 strike price. Together the premium of 2.05 implies that this investor expects that shares in Plum Creek remain hemmed between $37.05 and $22.95 during the next five months. Shares are 0.4% higher today at $31.32. There is also action at the same expiration 30 series where 5,000 calls traded close to a 3.40 asking price while puts traded on identical volume at a mid-market premium of 2.63. This is more opaque than the strangle and could represent a reversal in which a Plum Creek bull is selling puts to purchase calls. However, it could also be a sold strangle in a similar vane to the above. The currently implied trading range in this case would be between $23.97 to $36.03.

TBT – ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF – With today’s comments from Fed chairman Bernanke sending bond prices spiraling, investors have targeted call options on the inverse exchange traded fund, TBT, to target a continuation in the move. Likely investors expect further normalization in the yield curve as the discussion on a tighter policy stance expands. As bond yields have fallen during the recent four months, the price of this ETF has slipped from near $60 per share to $42. Today its price stands at $46.14 for a 4.8% gain. Note that the fund focuses on the 20-year area of the yield curve and is double leveraged, which account for today’s sharp price movement. Investors targeted call options in expectation of a further move and used October calls up to the 49 strike to play that move. They also bought calls at the 46 through 50 strike prices.

GE – General Electric – Option sellers chose to write call premium at the December contract using the 21 strike price today. We can see around 7,000 calls sold at premiums between 9-11 cents as shares in the conglomerate slip…
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Option Traders Latch Onto Rambus Chatter

Today’s tickers: RMBS, BIIB, IYF, OSK, GNW, XOP & S

RMBS - The latest from the rumor mill suggests that the memory chip maker may be the target of a buyout by Samsung Electronics for approximately $25.00 to $27.50 per share. Some analysts reported that such rumors are likely unfounded, and we should note also this is currently idle market chatter. Nevertheless, frenzied options activity was observed on the stock amid a more than 8% rally to $17.22. Option traders concentrated their efforts on out-of-the-money calls in the near-term September contract. Nearly 6,000 calls were picked up at the September 18 strike for about 68 cents each. The higher September 19 strike had 5,000 calls purchased for an average of 47 cents apiece. Finally, the most bullish investors looked as high as the September 20 strike to gather up more than 8,000 calls for 37 cents per contract. Rumors remain unconfirmed, but traders holding the call options are positioned to bank some serious profits if the buyout speculation proves accurate by expiration this month. – Rambus Inc. –

BIIB - The largest maker of medicines for multiple sclerosis announced that it has extended an unsolicited takeover bid, worth $356 million in cash, for its drug partner Facet Biotech Corporation. Shares of BIIB rose more than 2% during the session to the current price of $51.03. Perhaps the takeover bid inspired the bullish reversal strategy we observed in the April contract today. One investor appears to have shed 10,000 puts at the April 35 strike price for a premium of 90 cents apiece in order to partially offset the cost of purchasing 5,000 calls at the higher April 55 strike for 3.80 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 2.00 per contract. The investor responsible for the trade will begin to accrue profits if shares of BIIB rally approximately 12% from the current price to breach the breakeven point at $57.00 by expiration day. – Biogen IDEC, Inc. –

IYF - Shares of the IYF have moved slightly higher during the session, gaining less than 0.5% to arrive at the current price of $50.09. The ETF jumped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after a large bullish reversal play was initiated in the November contract. We note that the transaction was tied to stock. The investor responsible for the trade shed 20,000 puts at the November 40…
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Continental Butterflies

Today’s tickers: CAL, POT, EEM, RMBS, NVDA & FXI

CAL – Shares of the U.S. air carrier are lower by approximately 1% today to $9.19 amid total declines of 12% on the stock since the opening bell on Monday morning. One option trader was observed make a bullish play on CAL, hoping to see clearer skies in the airline’s future. The investor established a long butterfly spread in the September contract by selling 10,000 calls at the September 12.5 strike price [body] for a premium of 65 cents. The body of the spread was combined with the purchase of 5,000 calls at the September 10 strike for 1.40 apiece [wing 1] as well as the purchase of 5,000 calls at the September 14 strike price for 37 cents per contract [wing 2]. The transaction cost the trader a net 47 cents (1*1.40 [wing 1] + 1*0.37 [wing 2] – 2*0.65 [body] = 0.47). Maximum potential profits of 2.03 will be realized by this individual if shares of CAL can rally 36% to $12.50 by expiration. A long butterfly spread was an excellent choice by the bullish investor responsible for the trade. The application of the spread effectively lowered the breakeven point to $10.47 instead of the breakeven point of $13.15 which would have resulted from pure bullish call buying at the central 12.5 strike price. – Continental Airlines, Inc.

POT – The feed products company has experienced a share price decline of 2.5% to $114.90. Taking advantage of the price erosion was one investor who sold a chunk of put options in the July contract. This individual was observed selling approximately 15,000 puts at the July 80 strike price for an average premium of 65 cents apiece. The aggregate premium enjoyed on the trade amounts to $975,000. He will retain the full premium assuming the price of POT remains higher than $80.00 by expiration next month. Inherent in the short sale is the obligation of the writer to have shares put to him at expiration if indeed shares plummet more than $34.00 or 30% in the next month. – Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc.

EEM– It appears that an option investor was drawn into looking for downside protection in emerging markets today judging by the sizeable September expiration strategy seen in this morning’s trade. Shares are currently trading at $33.71 for a 1.5% loss today. Meanwhile this
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Investors dispute Monsanto “Hold” assessment

Today’s tickers: MON, HPQ, WFC, MYGN, QCOM, XLI, C, WFR, DRYS, FXI, AMD & RMBS

MON Monsanto Company – The St. Louis-based provider of herbicides, seeds, and related biotechnology trait products used to improve farming productivity, experienced a 1.5% decrease in shares to $82.13. Despite the slight decline, a report from Standard & Poor’s this morning noted that the agriculture sector experienced its strongest year in 2008, and further, that “seed and agriculture technology companies stand to benefit” from the health of the farm economy. Monsanto was highlighted for its solid research and development efforts and its promising estimates for earnings through 2012. However, one analyst did report that shares are “fairly valued” at $84.00, prompting a ‘hold’ recommendation. MON popped onto our market scanners after one investor initiated a bull call spread in the May contract. The purchase of 7,500 calls at the 95 strike price for 2.30 was spread against the sale of 7,500 calls at the 105 strike for 55 cents apiece. The net cost of this strategy amounts to 1.75 and yields a maximum potential profit of 8.25 if shares can rally upwards to $105 by expiration. Shares would need to grow by 28% in the next 2 months in order for this optimist to succeed in capturing the maximum profit of 8.25 by expiration day.

HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co. – In contrast to the call-selling witnessed yesterday in the options world, today investors were keen on purchasing calls in the November contract as shares of HPQ rally 1% to $30.95. The world’s largest personal-computer maker received an “outperform” rating by RBC Capital Markets due to the company’s, “diverse revenue portfolio, recurring book of business, stronger margin profile and solid management team,” according to one report released today. While most of the activity occurred in the November contract, one investor was seen banking profits on the sale of 3,000 calls at the in-the-money April 27.5 strike price for a premium of 4.00. Moving ahead 7 months, investors splurged on 2,000 November 32.5 calls for 4.40 apiece. Meanwhile, 5,500 calls were purchased at the 35 strike price for 3.40 at the same time that 6,500 calls were picked up for 2.50 at the 37.5 strike price. Finally, the most optimistic traders looked to the November 40 strike where some 2,400 calls were coveted for a premium of 1.80 per contract. Investors are clearly hoping for HPQ to…
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Phil's Favorites

Companies promoting causes can be accused of 'wokewashing' - allying themselves only for good PR

 

Companies promoting causes can be accused of 'wokewashing' – allying themselves only for good PR

Ben & Jerry’s opened Art for Justice, which highlights the need for criminal justice reform and features art by formerly incarcerated artists. AP Images/Andy Duback

Courtesy of Kim Sheehan, University of Oregon

More consumers want companies to ...



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Zero Hedge

Google Slides After Antitrust Probe Expands Into Search And Android Businesses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Google shares are sliding into late session after a CNBC report states 50 attorney generals are expanding their investigation into the technology company's search and Android businesses:

  • 50 ATTORNEYS GENERAL PROBING GOOGLE PREPARING TO EXPAND ANTITRUST PROBE BEYOND CO'S ADVERTISING BUSINESS - CNBC

  • 50 ATTORNEYS GENERAL INVESTIGATING GOOGLE PREPARING TO EXPAND ANTITRUST PROBE TO DIVE MORE DEEPLY INTO CO'S SEARCH & ANDROID BUSINESSES- CNBC

The investigation is being led by Texas Attorn...



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Insider Scoop

What Wall Street Thinks Of Google Cache

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) subsidiary Google announced a new partnership with Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to launc...



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The Technical Traders

Great Cycles Article PG 9 in TradersWorld Mag - Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

  1. How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader
  2. Geodetics and the Affairs of Men – USA, and China
  3. Cosmological Economics
  4. Time Machine
  5. Trading Means Pr...


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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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