Posts Tagged ‘Road to Recovery’

HAS THE RALLY ALREADY EXHAUSTED ITSELF?

HAS THE RALLY ALREADY EXHAUSTED ITSELF?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Dshort has an excellent chart out comparing the road to recovery using the rebounds that occurred following similar bear markets.  Excluding the 1929 data, I’ve used the S&P 500 oil crisis recovery and the tech crash to calculate potential future returns.  Assuming a total recovery of 61% (the average) from the bottom we can expect just 8.2% total returns in the coming 2 years after the incredible 5 month run we’ve already experienced.  That’s a whopping 4% compound annual growth rate.

There is no doubt that the rally off the bottom has been swift and incredible, but now investors have to begin wondering whether or not the stock market is substantially ahead of itself in the near-term?  4% annual returns would certainly imply a very poor risk/reward environment which is in-line with our current thinking.  Two pieces of data are by no means a solid scientific study, but the questions remain: is the stock market ahead of the road to recovery?  Is it different this time?

 HAS THE RALLY ALREADY EXHAUSTED ITSELF?

Unfortunately, taking the long-term perspective comes to much the same conclusions.  As I’ve mentioned before, one of the primary problems with bubbles is that the effect can often be as long and drawn out as the cause.   The only reasonable explanations for a v-shaped stock market recovery would be either 1. a miraculously quick de-leveraging & turnaround in the U.S. consumer (which isn’t occurring) or 2. rampant inflation caused by the Federal Reserve.   Unfortunately, the latter is unlikely to occur as borrowing remains extraordinarily low, banks continue to hoard cash and the consumer fails to recover quickly.  The only logical expectation is that this recovery and stock market performance will be similar in terms of performance as all of those bubbles that preceded it:

historysbubbles11 HAS THE RALLY ALREADY EXHAUSTED ITSELF?

Source: Dshort.com

 


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Doug Short and a New Look at the Four Bad Bears

Doug Short and a New Look at the Four Bad Bears

Courtesy of Bill Luby’s VIX AND MORE

While we are waiting to see what the FOMC has to say, I thought I would use this lull to highlight the work of Doug Short, which can be found at dshort.com.

Yesterday, in The Road to Recovery, Doug looked at the profile of recoveries from four strong bear markets. Given the relative ease with which stocks have recovered from their March lows (see chart below), Doug adopts a skeptical tone (which I share) about the path forward for stocks:

For a related post and graphic that puts the above in a different perspective, readers are encouraged to check out Doug’s The “Real” Mega-Bear Quartet 2000.

Road to Recovery

[source: dshort.com]

“Our current market is now 47% above the March 9th low. It has significantly outperformed the 1974 and 2002 rebounds over the equivalent period, and it briefly surpassed the 48% rally in the 1929 Dow. Will it continue to show resilience?”

 


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Phil's Favorites

Black Friday for Amazon workers: the human costs behind consumer convenience

 

Black Friday for Amazon workers: the human costs behind consumer convenience

Frederic Legrand - COMEO / Shutterstock

Courtesy of Tom Vickers, Nottingham Trent University

With the holiday shopping season upon us, many people will be taking advantage of the low prices and speedy delivery promised by Amazon. The online retail giant is more popular than ever, and it is bringing on thousands more employees to meet demand.

...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Antibiotic resistance is at a crisis point - government support for academia and Big Pharma to find new drugs could help defeat superbugs

 

Antibiotic resistance is at a crisis point – government support for academia and Big Pharma to find new drugs could help defeat superbugs

Bacteria that are resistant to every available antibiotic in the U.S. already exist. Rodolfo Parulan Jr/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Andre Hudson, Rochester Institute of Technology

Antibiotic resistance poses one of the most important health challenges of the 21st century. And time has already run out to stop its dire consequences.

The rise of ...



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Zero Hedge

You Only Die Once As TINA Quietly Leaves The Building

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It was about a year ago when we first pointed out a remarkable divergence in this broken market: retail investors (as proxied by the 50 most popular retail-held stocks) were outperforming the smart money by a factor of 10 to 1 (and blowing out the S&P500 in the process).

Is This The End For Hedge Funds: Retail Investors Outperform "Smart Money" Ten-To-One https://t.co/UsGDZKCnIx

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 13, 2020

But while retail investors conti...



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Politics

Turkey's currency crisis is a textbook example of what not to do with interest rates

 

Turkey’s currency crisis is a textbook example of what not to do with interest rates

Another fine mess. ToskanaINC

Courtesy of Gulcin Ozkan, King's College London

Central banks around the globe are currently staring at inflation rates unseen in more than 20 years. Supply chain problems and labour shortages arising from the pandemic, combined with sharply rising food and energy prices, have pushed prices up by as much as 6.2%...



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Chart School

US Reserve Asset vs Gold and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold and silver move relative to US interest rates and the US Dollar.

So lets use a custom index of US dollar and US 10 yr interest rates and see what happens.


shrink










NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of ...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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