Posts Tagged ‘RTP’

Tuesday – Uncle Rupert Throws A Tantrum

Happy Tuesday to you!

Nice market take-down by the Journal this morning, who led off with an article questioning the EU stress tests saying: "From this point of view, it is not surprising that the doubts raised about the validity of the stress tests are weighing on the Euro and also on other risk-correlated currencies."  Then, to make sure no one misses the article, they run another headline for the US markets that says "Concerns Over EU Banks Hit Euro" in which they quote themselves:

New concerns about the ability of European banks to weather the financial crisis came after the WSJ story highlighted once again the weaknesses of the stress tests. The report helped to widen the bond spreads on peripheral debtors and knocked European stock markets lower as another wave of euro zone jitters hit the market.

If this seems like BS manipulation to you, you will be doubly insulted to know that the US isn’t even the target of the manipulation.  Mr. Murdoch, an Aussie and long-time foe of the Euro, is simply expressing his displeasure in a Labor Party victory in the Australian elections this weekend (real Democracy’s hold elections on weekends to encourage voting) and is knocking down their dollar by simultaneously boosting both the dollar and the Yen (also in the article is news that the BOJ will not intervene in the Yen, which is total BS) to push down his native currency and make a post-election statement.  Just a media giant throwing a temper tantrum this morning. 

[EUSTRESS]Think about the "nature" of this story.  There is nothing NEW in this NEWs, is there? It’s the kind of article that could be written any time someone wants to push the markets.  Even the data they are using is from back on 3/31 – they didn’t even bother to update their facts for Q2!  Notice that the article is pure worst-case speculation by the WSJ, followed by comments like:

  • An FSA spokeswoman declined to comment.
  • CEBS didn’t disclose that the banks were calculating the figures in that way.

Wow, pretty damning evidence that they couldn’t get a comment contrary to their BS on a holiday weekend, right?  This news is also conveniently drowning out Obama’s proposed 6-year Public Works Program to combat unemployment by committing $50Bn for needed reparis on roads, rails and airport runways – putting some of our nation’s unemployed construction workers back to…
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Monday Market Movement – All in on Bonds!

Bond funds are attracting cash like stocks during the dot-com boom.

That's the headline this morning on Bloomberg, who says: "The amount of money flowing into bond funds is poised to exceed the cash that went into stock funds during the Internet bubble, stoking concern fixed-income markets are headed for a fall.  Investors poured $480.2 billion into mutual funds that focus on debt in the two years ending June, compared with the $496.9 billion received by equity funds from 1999 to 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the Washington-based Investment Company Institute."  $480Bn?!?  Whuck!?!

First of all, who the hell has $480Bn to do anything with in this economy?  That's where I stop reading and start pondering.  Of course, not all this cash is from America but holy cow – that is A LOT of money in these troubled times.  Imagine if some of that money starts going into equities.  Well, don't imagine that if you are bearish because you won't be able to sleep at night!  The cash inflows have pushed investment-grade US Corporate Debt down to a record 3.79% while Treasury Yields fell to an all-time low of 0.5%.

The money flowing into bonds is “probably not repeatable on a consistent basis,” said Joel Levington, managing director of corporate credit in New York at Brookfield Investment Management Inc., which oversees $24 billion. “Eventually it won’t be sustainable. Whether that means five years from now or five weeks is a little difficult to tell,” he said.  Let's be very clear about that last part – in order for any bubble to sustain itself it must continue to be fueled.  $480Bn is A LOT of money being put into instruments that provide little return.  I just did some charts and data on historical inflation in this weekend's "Defending Your Virtual Portfolio With Dividends" post for Members as we already see the writing on the walls with the Bond market and need to move into things that will actually make money (and protect our basis – which bonds do not at these levels). 

Investors took $9.1 billion OUT of equity funds in the week to Aug. 19, the most since July, according to Oleg Melentyev, a credit strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York. Stock funds have had $215.4 billion of outflows
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Thursday Thoughts – GDP Up, Jobs Down

Forget the GDP.

We'll get the report on Q2 GDP at 8:30 tomorrow but I'll be watching the Employment Cost Index to see if we are recovering.  I know it seems like "commie talk" to my Conservative friends, but rising wages and benefits are signs of a healthy economy and you can plot the rise and fall of the stock market very neatly against how well the workers are treated

It was Henry Ford who first "discovered" that, if you expect American consumers to buy your products, you have to pay American workers enough to afford them.  In January of 1914, the Ford Motor Company announced they would pay $5 a day to its workers. The pay increase would also be accompanied by a shorter workday (from nine to eight hours). While this rate didn't automatically apply to every worker, it more than doubled the average autoworker's wage.  Workers came from all over the nation and all over the world to work for Ford, who had their pick of the best and the brightest, which led to a 60-year legacy of dominance in American Industry. 

Henry Ford had reasoned that since it was possible to build inexpensive cars in volume, more of them could be sold if employees could afford to buy them. The $5 day helped better the lot of all American workers and contributed to the emergence of the American middle class and that led to a massive economic boom in "the Roaring 20's" until greedy Banksters and speculators crashed the market in 1929.  

Unfortunately, earning $5 a day is still a dream for much of the workforce employed by US corporations as that is more money than is paid to their tens of millions of employees and suppliers in China, India, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, etc.  Not only have American corporations "unlearned" the lessons that made this country great but they are actively involved in tearing down what is left of the American Middle Class by undermining their ability to earn and save as they ship jobs out of the country and cut wages and benefits for those few workers (135M at last count) who are left.

8:30 Update:  Make that 134,543,000 workers left - as we lost another 457,000 American jobs last week.  Continuing Claims picked back up to 4.56M, also more than expected but, as I said…
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Bears bombard Massey Energy Corp. as FBI Investigates Mining Tragedy

Today’s tickers: MEE, CSTR, SMH & RTP

MEE – Massey Energy Corp. – News the coal producer is being looked at by the Federal Bureau of Investigation following the tragic explosion at one of the firm’s mines in West Virginia on April 5, 2010, fuelled bearish options trading activity today and pushed Massey’s shares down 5.9% to $38.90 as of 12:45 pm (ET). Earlier in the session Massey’s shares declined 9% to an intraday low of $37.43. Shares of the underlying stock are currently down 31% since April 5, 2010, when the stock touched a new 52-week high of $54.80 before falling on news of the mining accident. Investors piled into put options on Massey today, with trading traffic heaviest in out-of-the-money puts in the May contract. The May $35 strike attracted the most volume with more than 12,600 puts changing hands at that strike by 12:50 pm (ET). It looks like at least 6,700 puts were purchased there for an average premium of $0.97 apiece. Put-buyers make money if Massey’s shares fall another 12.5% from current price of $38.90 to breach the average breakeven point to the downside at $34.03 by May expiration. News of the FBI’s involvement, coupled with investors’ voracious appetite for puts on the stock today, boosted Massey’s overall reading of options implied volatility 22.5% to 64.53% as of 12:55 pm (ET).

CSTR – Coinstar, Inc. – Shares of the provider of diverse services, such as self-service coin counting and Redbox $1-a-day movie-rental dispensaries, are up more than 21.5% to $46.44 as of 12:10 pm (ET). Earlier in the session Coinstar’s shares surged 32% over Thursday’s closing value of $38.21 to attain a new 52-week and intraday high of $50.35. One options player reeled in hefty profits by selling a previously established long call position in the May contract. It looks like the investor initially purchased 600 in-the-money calls at the May $35 strike for an average premium of $2.83 apiece back on Monday April 26, 2010, when shares of the underlying stock were trading at a volume-weighted average price of $36.51. Today the trader sold the calls for $14.40 each, banking average net profits of $11.57 per contract. Perhaps expecting continued bullish movement in the price per Coinstar share, the investor established a fresh optimistic stance on the stock by purchasing 600 calls at the May $50 strike for an average premium of $2.20 apiece.…
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Thoughtful Thursday Morning

Maybe I am being too bearish on the economy.

Maybe there is a shining city on the hill with 1,000 points of light and if I simply close my eyes and believe in it, I will be transported there and everything will be wonderful and China will expand and Europe will expand and the US markets will rise and rise as the 18M unemployed people line up in the streets to cheer us as we all drive past them in our new cars as we head over to the gas station to pay $4 for gas, honking joyfully as we pass by each empty storefront and each abandoned home

It was good to take quick bearish profits, as I warned in yesterday's post because quick profits are all the bears get these days as it was indeed a "Whipsaw Wednesday," and Buffett's warning went in one ear and out the other of investors so quickly that clearly there was no gray matter slowing it down along the way!  I was very proud of our short plays on COF, HPQ, RTP, SRS, RTH and our DUG long but all had a half-life on their success so short you could have run an atomic clock with it.  Fortunately, we had our bounce levels to guide us and our 3 of 5 rule to get out of bearish positions so the damage was more to our pride than our virtual portfolios.

Although I could see the turn in my 9:45 Alert to Members, I didn't have the heart to make any bullish calls as it just seemed like such nonsense.  By 10:12 we were even more concerned that something was up and I said: "Don’t get too excited bears.  As I said in the post, profits need to come quickly off the table – this is not a market for riding 20% profits too far."  Sadly, I then proceeded to make a short play on OIH at 10:26 that stopped out at 10:34 and an incredibly poorly timed idea to get the DIA $93 puts at 11:22, just minutes before the market went flying and stopped that one out too as we flew through our bounce zone of Dow 9,200, S&P 986, Nas 1,946, NYSE 6,400 and RUT 555.   Now that they've held up so well, those levels now become our watch levels to the downside and it makes…
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Whipsaw Wednesday – Buffet Bashes Bulls

Well, you can't say I didn't tell you so

Yesterday's post was all about what total nonsense the move up was and, per usual, the whole thing was taken away in the futures, where retail investors have no chance to profit from it.  Of course, this market isn't being run for your benefit and if you wait for Cramer to tell you what to do, then you are pretty screwed (and more so if you listen to him).  Yesterday our boy Jim fell off the wagon and declared victory for the Bulls saying: "The bears must be stunned and confused, flummoxed even" and made fun of those of us who worry about "facts" and "fundamentals" as we trade.  "Every argument the bears had for selling," Cramer said, "has been totally rebuffed by this great market."  Cramer, you are not just an idiot, you are a dangerous idiot!

As the more rational David Fry points out in his "Spin City" post: 

So we got a healthy bounce today but it didn’t undo Friday and Monday’s collective damage. We were a little short-term oversold and a bounce shouldn’t surprise even though economic and company news wasn’t great. But, the “better than expected” spin was in for retailers which frankly was laughable. And, golly, banks reported losses on credit cards were slowing (maybe because Chucky’s not shopping?) which was seen as a positive. Homebuilders disappointed (oops, scratch that)… a “worse than expected” report was spun positively because more single family homes were built. I wonder about that since there are too many of them, aren’t there? But that’s the way things are these days.

What a stark contrast between a sane and insane take on yesterday's action.  In Monday's post we targeted a drop to Dow 9,100, S&P 980, Nasdaq 1,950, NYSE 6,400 and Russell 550 and in my 9:48 Alert to Members yesterday I set the bounce targets at Dow 9,200, S&P 986, Nas 1,946, NYSE 6,400 and RUT 555 but noting they were rough numbers that I was eyeballing on the fly, following our 5% rule.  Those levels were beat across the board but on such low volume that I called an audible and we stayed bearish, taking aggressive short positions like the DIA Aug $93 puts at $1.50 which, unfortunately, didn't make our double down target
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Phil's Favorites

Consumer Bureau To Decide Who Owns Your Financial Data

 

Consumer Bureau To Decide Who Owns Your Financial Data

What Should Banks, Fintechs Be Allowed to Do With All that They Know About You?

Courtesy of Jillian S. Ambroz, DCReport

A federal agency is gearing up to make wide-ranging policy changes on consumers’ access to their financial data.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is looking to implement the area of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act pertaining to a consumer’s rights to his or her own financial data. It is detailed in section 1033.

The agency has been ...



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Zero Hedge

Cali Mansion Once Listed For $100 Million Sells For "Only" $48.4 Million

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Today in "a look into a luxury real estate market you will never likely participate in" news...

A famous L.A. mansion called "Opus" that was once listed for $100 million and has been on the market for over three years has finally sold - at a more than 50% haircut.

The 20,000 square foot mansion sold for $48.4 million this week, furniture included, according to Bloomberg. It is also the lates...



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Politics

Mythmakers: The Men Who Created Donald J. Trump

 

Mythmakers: The Men Who Created Donald J. Trump

Mark Burnett, Jeff Zucker, and the Trustwashing of a Fake President

Courtesy of Greg Olear, Prevail, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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ValueWalk

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Re And Icahn's Icahn Enterprises

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

During their recent episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discussed Einhorn‘s Greenlight Capital Re (NASDAQ:GLRE) and Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises LP (NASDAQ:IEP). Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Re And Icahn's Icahn Enterprises

Tobias: Einhorn genius for a decade. The GOAT for a decade, a GOAT for the last decade. I think it could be back to the GOAT stage, possibly for the...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

 

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

Now there is a third possible vaccine for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sanjay Mishra, Vanderbilt University

The biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has released data on what is now the third promising vaccine candidate against COVID-19 – and it has several advantages over those of its competitors, ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 12 June 2020, 08:06:43 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Interesting (2)



Date Found: Saturday, 13 June 2020, 12:27:02 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Recession Forecasts Time Frame



Date Found: Monday, 15 June 2020, 11:07:52 PM

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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