Posts Tagged ‘RYDEX MARKET TIMERS’

RYDEX MARKET TIMERS ARE BECOMING MORE BEARISH

RYDEX MARKET TIMERS ARE BECOMING MORE BEARISH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The following comes to us courtesy of The Technical Take:

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

Figure 1. S&P500/ daily/ Rydex Bullish and Leveraged v. Bearish and Leveraged

fig+1 RYDEX MARKET TIMERS ARE BECOMING MORE BEARISH

The current value of the indicator stands at 1.02 suggesting that the Rydex market timers are becoming more bearish, and this is a bullish signal.

How bullish? Let’s design a study with the following rules:

1) entry signal: when the ratio of the Rydex bullish and leveraged assets to the Rydex bearish and leveraged assets is less than or equal to 1 and when the S&P500 is above its 200 day moving average

2) exit signal: when the ratio of the Rydex bullish and leveraged assets to the Rydex bearish and leveraged assets is greater than 1

3) all trade signals are executed at the open of the day following the signal as this mimics exactly how I receive the Rydex data (i.e., the night before)

4) commissions and slippage are not considered.

Of note, some of the buy and sell signals are shown in figure 1.

The strategy was back tested on the S&P500 with the first trade beginning on April 15, 2003. This strategy generated 529 S&P500 points; since April 15, 2003, buy and hold has generated 170 S&P500 points. There were 35 trades, and 31 of these were profitable. This strategy had a streak of 19 consecutive winning trades. Amazingly, this strategy was only in the market 7% of the time over the past 7 years. The average winning trade lasted 6 trading days with the average loser lasting 3 trading days. There was only one outlier trade which accounted for about 10% of the profits, and the profit factor (i.e., gross profit to gross loss) was a sizzling 23 to 1.

The equity curve for the strategy is shown in figure 2.

Figure 2. Equity Curve

fig+2 RYDEX MARKET TIMERS ARE BECOMING MORE BEARISH
 
 
Figure 3 is a the maximum adverse excursion graph (MAE) for this strategy. MAE assesses each trade from the strategy and determines how much a trade had to lose in percentage terms before being closed out for a winner or loser. You


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ValueWalk

Mixed Trick or Treat Bag for US Retailers this Halloween

By Refinitiv. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As a result of the coronavirus restraining normal activities, including traditional Halloween events, such as trick or treating and costume parties, retailers are feeling the pinch of a scary Halloween season.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are the S&P 500 Index and Crude Oil Peaking Together Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The price of crude oil has been an important indicator of the economy for quite some time. When oil is in demand and performing well, the economy likely is. And when oil is not performing well, the economy likely isn’t either.

Taking this one step further, it’s easy to see how crude oil can be a solid indicator of the stock market as well.

Often times, investors receive a bearish or bullish message from this relationship. In today’s chart 2-pack, we illustrate how the relationship between the S&P 500 Index and the ...



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Phil's Favorites

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Ransomware can interfere with elections and fuel disinformation – basic cybersecurity precautions are key to minimizing the damage

Ransomware attacks often strike local government computer systems, which poses a challenge for protecting elections. PRImageFactory/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Richard Forno, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Government computer systems in Hall County, Georgia, including a voter signature database, were ...



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Zero Hedge

In Unprecedented Cost-Cutting, Exxon Is Firing 15% Of Its Workers To Keep Dividend

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It may sound unbelievable that just seven years ago Exxon was the world's largest company.

Of course, all that changed with the advent of the FAAMGs and the Fed blowing the biggest tech bubble in history which together with the plunge in the price of oil, meant the market cap of Exxon has tumbled to just $136BN, below that of Zoom. Yes, we have gotten to the point in the bubble where a video chat with no barriers to entry, zero infrastructure and barely any profit is more val...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Achieving COVID-19 herd immunity through infection is dangerous, deadly and might not even work

 

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Courtesy of Steven Albert, University of Pittsburgh

White House advisers have made the case recently for a “natural” approach to herd immunity as a way to reduce the need for ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 18 May 2020, 03:35:21 AM

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Comment: Ooh so pretty, so pretty, ooh so!



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Politics

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Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

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Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

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By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

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The Technical Traders

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Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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