Posts Tagged ‘sars’

Social Mood, Stocks and Epidemics

As we’ve discussed previously (e.g., Global Unrest Continues to Grow, Hyperinflation First, Then Global War), socionomics is premised on the theory that "social mood drives financial, macroeconomic and political behavior, in contrast to the conventional notion that such events drive social mood."  Here is an interesting article on socionomics which focuses on social mood and its relationship to disease.  – Ilene

Social Mood, Stocks and Epidemics

The lead article in the first issue of The Socionomist is beyond timely. A Socionomic View of Epidemic Disease: A Looming Season of Susceptibility is Part One of an exploration of the mechanisms by which social mood affects our psychology, physiology and susceptibility to epidemic disease. It has been in the works for months. Part Two will publish in June.
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Social Mood, Stocks and Epidemics
by Alan Hall
 
Social mood governs a plethora of human social activities, from stock markets to the economy to societal health. For example: as measured by the stock market, we recently completed a large wave in a powerfully-negative social-mood trend. It bottomed amid extremely pessimistic sentiment. Social stress reached higher levels than it has in decades. Soon after, H1N1 swine flu erupted and came right to the edge of being a pandemic. If this was the only such instance of disease breaking out after a social-mood decline, it might be coincidence, but there are numerous examples in the historical record.

As you can see in the chart of the MSCI World Stock Index below, there are similarities between the 2003 SARS epidemic and today’s flu outbreak.

 

This chart is not in Part One of A Socionomic View of Epidemic Disease in the brand-new inaugural issue of The Socionomist. We didn’t need it. We have five other charts that show the strong connection between negative social mood and increased human susceptibility to epidemics.
 
SARS and swine flu occur at similar positions in the pattern of the MSCI World Stock Index: soon after a strong


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Politics

Trump's Coup Runneth Over

 

Trump's Coup Runneth Over

The president fancies himself a strongman. He's not.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

THERE ARE DAYS when a second Trump term—which would beget a third Trump term, followed by a few Ivanka Trump terms—feels inevitable. When the optimism of commentary like mine—“pseudo-sophisticated reassurance,”&...



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Phil's Favorites

Mapped: The Uneven Recovery of U.S. Small Businesses

 

Mapped: The Uneven Recovery of U.S. Small Businesses

Courtesy of Nick Routley, Visual Capitalist

 

Mapped: The Uneven Recovery of U.S. Small Businesses

Small businesses are the backbone of the U.S. economy, employing nearly half of the private sector workforce.

Unfortunately, lockdown and work-from-home measures brought about by COVID-19 have disproportionately affected small businesses – particularly in the leisure and hospitality sectors.

As metro-level data from ...



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ValueWalk

Tesla quality is ranked dead last among 31 brands, Stock Headed To zero: Shortseller

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Excerpted from Stanphyl Capital’s September 2020 letter to investors.

We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which currently has a fully diluted market cap of approximately $445 billion, roughly equal to those of Toyota, VW, GM, Daimler, BMW and Ford combined despite unprofitably selling fewer than 500,000 cars a year to their nearly 40 million. The core points of our Tesla short thesis are:

  • Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of electric car technology, while existing automakers—unl...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Price Breakout Facing Critical New Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been a heck of a year for Gold. But the year isn’t over yet and precious metals investors are hoping it will close the year out strong. That may depend on what happens in the coming days/weeks.

In today’s article, we feature a “weekly” chart of the Gold ETF (GLD), highlighting its strong up-trend channel and summer breakout to new all-time highs at (1), from Marketsmith.com.

Recently, I provided an update on why ...



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Zero Hedge

We've Reached "The Endpoint" - Monetary And Fiscal Policy Won't Help

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

Remember all those “green shoots?”

That was the ubiquitous phrase used by White House officials and TV talking heads in 2009 to describe how the U.S. economy was coming back to life after the 2008 global financial crisis.

The problem was we did not get green shoots; what we got was more like brown weeds.

The economy did recover, yes, but it was th...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 01 May 2020, 11:47:29 PM

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Comment: In 2008 the Central banks were newbies, now there locked and loaded .. its going to be a great show



Date Found: Saturday, 02 May 2020, 12:21:35 AM

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Comment: The Fed has done everything it poss...



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Digital Currencies

The Great Unbanking: How DeFi Is Completing The Job Bitcoin Started

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Paul De Havilland via CoinTelegraph.com,

While most of us will prefer to forget the horrors of 2020, DeFi may well prove to be the guarantee of a better, more liberated future...

...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

 

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

How much longer must society wait for a vaccine? ANDRZEJ WOJCICKI/Getty Images

By William Petri, University of Virginia

With COVID-19 vaccines currently in the final phase of study, you’ve probably been wondering how the FDA will decide if a vaccine is safe and effective.

Based on the status of the Phase 3 trials currently underway, it i...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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