Posts Tagged ‘seasonal factors’

DOES THE VIX GAP = MARKET CRASH?

Here’s some rather discouraging correlational data for the green-shoot believers.

DOES THE VIX GAP = MARKET CRASH?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Interesting confluence of seasonal, fundamental and technical elements all coming together here.  Researchers at Citi tie together the technicals and seasonal factors nicely:

“most importantly we have opened up a significant topside gap between the 55 and 200 day moving averages (About 14% gap) that appears to be the widest topside gap between these averages posted since our data begins back in 1986.

vix

While we may not see a decisive break of the 55 day moving average (At least a daily close) the implications if we do, look quite serious:

• It would suggest the potential for a quite rapid move towards the 200 day moving average now at 44.88%
• The last time we saw a good move of this magnitude (A virtual doubling of volatility) was in November 2008 with impulsive rallies of lesser proportion in January 2009 and Feb. 2008
• This yielded losses of 26%; 15% and 24% respectively over periods of 3-4 weeks.”

I would generally cast off such technical analysis if it wasn’t backed by highly suspicious options trading a few weeks back, strong seasonal trends and deteriorating stock market fundamentals (which we’ve covered quite thoroughly here at TPC).  Just days after getting short at S&P 945 we noted suspicious options trading that traders at the CBOE pointed our way:

However, the noise coming out of the Chicago Board Options Exchange today is over a July call spread using VIX options that relies on a market swan dive over the coming 41 days before it would earn profits. One trader spent an $850,000 premium on buying 20,000 July calls at the 45 strike while selling the same amount of 55 strike calls, thus lowering the overall premium to 42.5 cents. The VIX hasn’t traded above 40 since April 21 and we’re wondering what this guy knows that no one else does.

It doesn’t end there.  Citi goes on to note some interesting seasonal facts over the course of the last 25 years:

1982: DJIA having started to turn sharply lower had a short-term bounce which peaked at 843.80 on 21st July. (Missing the magic date by 4 days) But by 09 August it was nearly 9%


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Zero Hedge

Florida Prosecutors Plan To Release Kraft Rub-And-Tug Video

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Florida prosecutors have indicated that they plan to release police surveillance videos of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who was busted in February along with 24 other men for allegedly receiving sexual favors at the Orchids of Asia Day Spa in Jupiter, FL.

Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg’s office said in c...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For April 18, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Top Upgrades
  • Analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded Smart & Final Stores Inc (NYSE: SFS) from Underweight to Equal-Weight. Smart & Final shares fell 0.3 percent to $6.47 in pre-market trading.
  • Cowen & Co. upgraded Gogo Inc (NASDAQ: GOGO) from Market Perform to Outperform. Gogo shares fell 2.14 percent to $5.25 in pre-market trading.
  • JP Morgan upgraded ResMed Inc. (NYSE: RMD) from Underweight to Neutral. ResMed shares closed at $97.37 on Wednesd...


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Phil's Favorites

Faster, more accurate diagnoses: Healthcare applications of AI research

 

Faster, more accurate diagnoses: Healthcare applications of AI research

As machine learning progresses, its applications include faster, more accurate medical diagnoses. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Seokbum Ko, University of Saskatchewan

When Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo shockingly defeated legendary Go player Lee Sedol in 2016, the terms artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and deep learning were propelled into the technological mainstream.

BBC Newsnight: AlphaGo and the future of Artificial Intelligence.

AI is generally defined as the capacity for a compu...



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Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

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Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0



Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

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Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Star...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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