Posts Tagged ‘seasonal factors’

DOES THE VIX GAP = MARKET CRASH?

Here’s some rather discouraging correlational data for the green-shoot believers.

DOES THE VIX GAP = MARKET CRASH?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Interesting confluence of seasonal, fundamental and technical elements all coming together here.  Researchers at Citi tie together the technicals and seasonal factors nicely:

“most importantly we have opened up a significant topside gap between the 55 and 200 day moving averages (About 14% gap) that appears to be the widest topside gap between these averages posted since our data begins back in 1986.

vix

While we may not see a decisive break of the 55 day moving average (At least a daily close) the implications if we do, look quite serious:

• It would suggest the potential for a quite rapid move towards the 200 day moving average now at 44.88%
• The last time we saw a good move of this magnitude (A virtual doubling of volatility) was in November 2008 with impulsive rallies of lesser proportion in January 2009 and Feb. 2008
• This yielded losses of 26%; 15% and 24% respectively over periods of 3-4 weeks.”

I would generally cast off such technical analysis if it wasn’t backed by highly suspicious options trading a few weeks back, strong seasonal trends and deteriorating stock market fundamentals (which we’ve covered quite thoroughly here at TPC).  Just days after getting short at S&P 945 we noted suspicious options trading that traders at the CBOE pointed our way:

However, the noise coming out of the Chicago Board Options Exchange today is over a July call spread using VIX options that relies on a market swan dive over the coming 41 days before it would earn profits. One trader spent an $850,000 premium on buying 20,000 July calls at the 45 strike while selling the same amount of 55 strike calls, thus lowering the overall premium to 42.5 cents. The VIX hasn’t traded above 40 since April 21 and we’re wondering what this guy knows that no one else does.

It doesn’t end there.  Citi goes on to note some interesting seasonal facts over the course of the last 25 years:

1982: DJIA having started to turn sharply lower had a short-term bounce which peaked at 843.80 on 21st July. (Missing the magic date by 4 days) But by 09 August it was nearly 9%


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Phil's Favorites

The COVID-19 virus can spread through the air - here's what it'll take to detect the airborne particles

 

The COVID-19 virus can spread through the air – here's what it'll take to detect the airborne particles

Researchers are working on handheld devices that can signal the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the air. fotograzia/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Suresh Dhaniyala, Clarkson University; Hema Priyamvada Ravindran, Clarkson University, and ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The COVID-19 virus can spread through the air - here's what it'll take to detect the airborne particles

 

The COVID-19 virus can spread through the air – here's what it'll take to detect the airborne particles

Researchers are working on handheld devices that can signal the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the air. fotograzia/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Suresh Dhaniyala, Clarkson University; Hema Priyamvada Ravindran, Clarkson University, and ...



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ValueWalk

Trump holding up coronavirus stimulus checks to block mail-in voting?

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It is now clear that there won’t be any coronavirus relief package this week or possibly this month as well. The reason for the collapse of talks is known to be the difference over several provisions, as well as the size of the package. However, it is possible that President Donald Trump is blocking the deal and the coronavirus stimulus checks because of mail-in voting.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

No coronavirus stimulus checks due to mail-in voting?

Speaking to Fox Business on Thursday, Trump suggested that he is holding up the ...



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Zero Hedge

Britain's 'A-Level' Results Crisis & The COVID-Education Train-Wreck

Courtesy of Yves Smith's NakedCapitalism.com

Many of you in the US likely missed the A level testing algo fiasco. Here is the short version, from the Financial Times yesterday:

The government is under mounting pressure to come to the aid of secondary school pupils in England after almost 40 per cent of A-level grades were downgraded from teachers’ predictions.

Amid an angry backlash from pupils and teachers, opposition parties and trade unions led calls for ministers to review how A-level results were modifi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Could Be Creating Large Reversal Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver prices from 30-years ago be influencing price action this month? Joe Friday suggests it is possible.

This chart looks at Silver Futures on a monthly basis over the past 40-years. Fibonacci levels were applied to the 1980 highs ($50) and 1991 lows ($.350) in Silver.

The 50% retracement levels of the 1980 high/1991 low came into play as support for a few months at each (1). Once this support broke, Silver fell another 50%.

The impressive rally over the past 8-weeks has Silver testing the 50% retracement level as potential...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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