Posts Tagged ‘seasonal variation’

Heh Where Are The Sales?

Heh Where Are The Sales?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

But I thought we had an economic recovery underway?

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $360.2 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month

Heh, that’s not so good.  Ex-autos sales were down -0.15%, implying what we’ve already seen reported: auto sales have gone in the tank.

But that’s not the only place we found bad news.  Building materials were down about 1%, and, interestingly, so were food and beverage stores (about 1/2%.)  Gasoline sales were down 2%, while clothing stores, general merchandise and electronics were up slightly.

All in all not a disastrous report – but definitely not a strong one either.  The market reaction was immediately negative, although the move (about 1/2% southbound) wasn’t dramatic.

The evidence continues to mount that the economy is, indeed, slowing once again.

 


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Retail Sales Strong in November

Overview of retail sales in November. On the surface, retail sales exceeded expectations, but there are a few underlying problems--for instance, increases in gasoline prices, sampling changes, and an unclear effect of a seasonal adjustment. - Ilene

Retail Sales Strong in November

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected For Month Of November

ABC News:

Sales at U.S. retailers rose more than expected in November as consumers spent more on gasoline and a wide range of other goods, data showed on Friday, raising hopes of a self-sustaining economic recovery.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales increased 1.3 percent last month, the largest advance since August, after rising by a downwardly revised 1.1 percent in October. It was the second straight monthly gain. Sales in October were previously reported to have increased 1.4 percent.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales gaining 0.7 percent last month. Overall sales in November were boosted by strong receipts from gasoline stations, increased purchases of motor vehicles and parts, building materials and electronic goods among others. Gasoline sales surged 6 percent, the largest increase since June.

Compared to November last year, sales were up 1.9 percent, the first year-on-year gain since August 2008, a Commerce official said.

 

Source: Census

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Retail sales continue to rise

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made 

The Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose more than expected last month, up 1.3 percent in November after a gain of 1.1 percent in October. The November gain was the biggest increase since a 2.4 percent surge in August and brings the year-over-year change (unadjusted for inflation) back into positive territory for the first time in 15 months.

This came as something of a surprise to analysts because retailers across the country had been reporting lackluster sales during the holiday shopping season so far.



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Though the overall increase was paced by a 6.0 percent gain in gasoline station sales, due largely to higher gasoline prices, gains were broad based, only three of the 13 retail sales categories posting declines. Excluding gasoline,


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Zero Hedge

Amazon Sells $10 Billion In Bonds At Record Low Yields

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Yesterday morning we reported that the news of Amazon's massive, 6-part bond issuance - which came just as Morgan Stanley upgraded the company's price target to $2,800 - was enough to push Treasury yields to session high following a flurry of rate locks. Little did we know that just a few hours later demand for the offering would overflow dealer books, and the result as announced late on Monday, was the sale of $10 billion in a more than 3x-oversubscribed offering (led by DB, GS, HSBC, JPM) that included three-year notes carrying an interest rate of just 0.4%.

This means that just days af...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Aussie Dollar Suggesting Much Higher Commodities And Yields On The Way???

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Aussie Dollar about to jump higher and signal that Commodities and interest rates are about to do the same? Possible!

This chart looks at the Aussie Dollar on a monthly basis over the past 16-years.

The AU$ created a bottoming pattern over several months in late 2008/early 2009 at (1). While creating the bottom, a couple of monthly bullish reversal patterns formed. What did commodities and yields do following the bottoming process in the AU$? Both were creating bottoms as well!

The 9-year decline in the AU$ has it testing triple support a...



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The Technical Traders

Comparing Bitcoin and Ether During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Courtesy of Technical Traders

You don’t need a crystal ball — or an economics degree — to notice the pandemic is having a historic impact on the stock market and commodities.

Gold initially went down (like all assets) in the mid-March meltdown, but is up 14% YTD. Oil bid negative, for the first time ever, as May futures traders dumped contracts to avoid taking delivery amid a lack of storage. It has since rebounded partially due to production cuts and the lifting of lockdowns. Orange juice is up over 26% YTD on adverse weather than impacted Brazil’s crop and increased consumer demand.

The most surpris...



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Phil's Favorites

Police officers accused of brutal violence often have a history of complaints by citizens

 

Police officers accused of brutal violence often have a history of complaints by citizens

Police work to keep demonstrators back during a protest in Lafayette Square Park on May 30, 2020 in Washington, D.C. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jill McCorkel, Villanova University

As protests against police violence and racism continue in cities throughout the U.S., the public is learning that several of the officer...



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ValueWalk

Strategy Chain Interviews ValueWalk CEO And Founder Jacob Wolinsky

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Thank you to Michael Robertson of The Strategy Chain podcast for interviewing me. See below for the episode timestamps and the full audio. TX – Jacob Wolinsky

Jacob Wolinsky worked in investing and financial journalism before founding ValueWalk, a site that curates information about investing, hedge funds, asset management, and the broader world of finance. We explore Jacob’s journey as an investor and an entrepreneur. This episode was a real treat for me because our guest was (and continues to be) instrumental to my growth as a value investor. Jacob gave us a ton ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antibody injections could fight COVID-19 infections - an infectious disease expert explains the prospects

 

Antibody injections could fight COVID-19 infections – an infectious disease expert explains the prospects

Antibodies (pink) attacking a virus particle (blue). STEVEN MCDOWELL/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY

Courtesy of Dimiter Stanchev Dimitrov, University of Pittsburgh

Antibodies are part of us – literally.

We have billions of them in our bodies with a combined weight of about 100 grams, or about the weight of a bar of soap. If there are so many antibodies inside our b...



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Chart School

Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...

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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.