Posts Tagged ‘seasonality’

S&P 500: On a knife’s edge

S&P 500: On a knife’s edge

Courtesy of Prieur du Plessis, Investment Postcards from Cape Town

Last Thursday was a so-called 90% down-day for American stock markets (and many other bourses also recorded downward dynamics). A 90% down-day is defined as a day when downside volume equals 90% or more of the total upside plus downside volume and points lost equal 90% or more of the total points gained plus points lost. The historical record show that 90% down-days do not usually occur as a single incident on the bottom day of an important decline, but typically on a number of occasions throughout a major decline. As far as the very short term is concerned, 90% down-days are often followed by two- to seven-day bounces.

The stock market is on a knife’s edge at the moment as seen in the chart below, showing the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Index (green line) together with a simple 12-month rate of change (ROC) indicator (red line). Although monthly indicators are of little help when it comes to market timing, they do come in handy for defining the primary trend. An ROC line below zero depicts bear trends as experienced in 1990, 1994, 2000 to 2003, and in 2007. And 2010? With the ROC delicately perched just above the zero line, the primary trend is still bullish, but barely so.

Source: StockChart.com.

Regarding seasonality, I have done a short analysis of the historical pattern of monthly returns for the S&P 500 Index from 1950 to August 2010. The results are summarized in the graph below.

Source: Plexus Asset Management (based on data from I-Net Bridge).

As shown, the six-month period from May to October has historically been weaker than the period from November to April as seen in the average monthly return of 1.05% for the “good six months” compared with 0.25%% for the “bad six months”. Importantly, when considering individual months, September (-0.18%) and October (-0.19%) have historically been the only two negative months of the year. (A word of warning, though: one should take cognizance of seasonality but understand that it is not a stand-alone indicator and it is anybody’s guess whether a specific year will conform to the historical pattern.)

Where does this leave us at this juncture? Considering an array of indicators, we are somewhat in no-man’s land regarding whether the bull or bear will…
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THE 2 BIGGEST RISKS TO THE BULL MARKET

THE 2 BIGGEST RISKS TO THE BULL MARKET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This is a re-post from an article we wrote for TheStreet.com:

The rally off the March 8th lows has been nothing but spectacular.   In hindsight, it’s clear that investors overreacted to the downside, but as stocks surge more than 50% it’s time to begin pondering whether the current rally is a bit ahead of itself.  Contrary to my bottom call on March 8th when I said it was time to invest in risky assets (a full history of my 2008/9 calls can be found here including our 2008 crash call and March 8 buy call), now is the time to put on your risk management cap on as a number of various threats begin to pop up across the market.    I recently turned near-term bearish on stocks due to 2 primary reasons: sentiment & seasonality.

1)  Sentiment – As I often say, psychology drives markets.  After months of skepticism regarding the rally we are finally beginning to see an overwhelming amount of bullishness.  This is a screaming contrarian indicator.  The latest consumer confidence readings showed a marked jump to 54.1 and bullish sentiment among fund managers has soared to its highest level since 2003:

The latest Merrill Lynch fund managers survey shows an extraordinary jump in optimistic sentiment.   The survey makes up the current psychology of 204 portfolio managers running over $550B in assets.  The report shows a 63% jump in sentiment since July and the highest reading since November of 2003.

After months of short squeezes and failed market declines this optimistic sentiment has begun to eat into one of the fuels of this rally: short sellers.  Recent short sales data shows the lowest readings since the market tanked in early February.  As we lose the short sellers we lose an important driver of higher prices.

BESPOKE THE 2 BIGGEST RISKS TO THE BULL MARKET

Perhaps most important has been the enormous shift in analyst estimates.  After turning bearish in early June, I reversed the position in early July for one reason – earnings.  My analysis led me to believe that estimates were far too low primarily due to the fact that analysts were not accounting for cost cuts.  The estimates have been outrageously low, but now as the consensus begins to believe in a full blown recovery the


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VIX at Seasonal Cycle Low

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VIX at Seasonal Cycle Low

Courtesy of Bill Luby at VIX AND MORE

With the VIX now getting comfortable in the 20s, there has been a fair amount of discussion about just how low we can expect the VIX to go in the next few months.

Back in April, in The New VIX Macro Cycle Picture, I predicted that the VIX will likely not drop below the 25-27 area in the current bull market. That prediction has held up so far, but will almost certainly be tested during the summer months.

Most investors tend to think of the summer season as something of a horse latitudes of sorts for trading, with volume tailing off, portfolio managers on vacation and stocks sometimes set to cruise control. As a result, most people equate summer with lower volatility.

While the VIX does tend to follow a distinct seasonal cycle, the truth of the matter is that we are now at the seasonal cycle low, with volatility historically increasing dramatically from June through October. In fact, over the course of the past two decades the increase in volatility has been highest from June to July, increasing by over 10% (1.82 points.) The pattern is quite distinct in the chart below, which shows composite monthly volatility from January 1990 through last month, using 100 as the series mean.

So…while volatility may indeed trend lower as some of the concerns about the global recession are put to rest in the next few months, lower volatility will have to counter the established seasonal cycle.

For some previous posts on the same subject, try:

Seasonal VIX Chart

[graphic: VIXandMore]

Disclosure: Neutral position in VIX via options at time of writing

 


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Phil's Favorites

Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes

I don't see how universities can be safely reopened. Classes may have to shift to largely or only online. Dorms, if they reopen, would probably need to limit rooms to one person, and maybe only for students without other options. This would obviously be a financial disaster for many colleges and millions of people. The federal government would ideally step in to help universities and employees survive financially. Any thoughts?

Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes

It’s hard to social distance on campus. AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

Courtesy of Neta C. Crawford, ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes

I don't see how universities can be safely reopened. Classes may have to shift to largely or only online. Dorms, if they reopen, would probably need to limit rooms to one person, and maybe only for students without other options. This would obviously be a financial disaster for many colleges and millions of people. The federal government would ideally step in to help universities and employees survive financially. Any thoughts?

Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes

It’s hard to social distance on campus. AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

Courtesy of Neta C. Crawford, ...



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ValueWalk

Facebook Stock Crashes Due To Ad Boycott - Key Investing Points

By Sven Carlin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) stock crashed 8.32% on Friday because of the announced ad boycott by many companies like Unilever, Coca Cola, recently Starbucks on Sunday that might push the stock down even more during this week.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

However, investing is about knowing how to differentiate between the noise and fundamentals and we discuss Facebook's recent news and compare it to FB fundamentals.

  • Facebook stock crash
  • Ad boycott
  • Facebook stock volatility
  • Facebook's fundamentals
  • Be sure of volatility
  • My po...


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Zero Hedge

Dr. Fauci Is No Nostradamus: How COVID-19 Ran Amok Under His Watch

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by James Grundvig via Vaxxter.com,

Michel de Nostradamus was born in Saint-Remy, South of France, in 1503. Beyond the gifts he would one day explore in astrology, he pursued an education to become a physician. After his first year at the University of Avignon, an outbreak of the plague swept through France, forcing the University to close.

...

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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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The Technical Traders

Wild Volatility Continues As US Markets Attempt To Establish New Trend

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the US and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions.  Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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