Posts Tagged ‘shadow office space’

Shadow Office Space “Leased but Empty” Haunts Commercial Real Estate

Shadow Office Space "Leased but Empty" Haunts Commercial Real Estate

Courtesy of Mish

NEW YORK - OCTOBER 09:  A retail store sits empty October 9, 2008 in New York City. Office vacancy rates have spiked to two-year highs with rates now 43 percent higher than a year ago, according to new figures from the real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Shadow housing supply, foreclosed but not on the market as well as sellers who want out but cannot get out is one of the factors weighing on residential real estate. Similar supply issues weigh heavily on commercial real estate.

Office vacancies are widely reported, but few gave factored in the shadow supply, downsized companies with more leased space than they need, holding on to it hoping thing get better, or stuck in long-term leases with more space than they want or need.

Minneapolis StarTribune article Shadow space haunts office market takes a good look at this very issue.

That section of empty cubicles, the conference rooms collecting cast-off office furniture … for employees, they’re dreary reminders of layoffs, consolidations and shelved expansion plans.

To real estate professionals, it’s "shadow" office space — space that’s leased or owned but largely empty and not officially listed anywhere as vacant. And brokers are fretting about the buildup of unprecedented amounts of it around the Twin Cities. All that idle square footage will likely prolong the recovery of the area’s hard-hit office sector, already struggling with high vacancy rates. Slow demand for new space will likely mean a dearth of new construction, and all the jobs and building material sales that go with it.

NorthMarq’s semiannual Compass Report, due out today, shows that the direct office vacancy rate in the Twin Cities has hit 19.9 percent — a 19-year high, by NorthMarq’s numbers. Fold in the space tenants are trying to sublease, and the rate jumps to 22.8 percent — the highest since NorthMarq began tracking sublease space in 1995.

McCarthy and other brokers estimate that 75 percent of companies don’t use about 10 percent of their space. By that measure, there would be about 5 million square feet of shadow space across the seven-county metro area — enough to push the real office vacancy rate from 19.9 percent to above 25 percent and perhaps closer to 30.

The amount and scope is unlike anything he’s seen in nearly 20 years in the business, he said. "It’s across all types of buildings," McCarthy said. "It’s just sitting there." It’s a national problem, he said.

National Problem

Subleasing is not easy because of the glut of vacant properties, because walling off sections is impractical or impossible…
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The Technical Traders

When Oil Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This, the final section of this multi-part research article, will continue our exploration of the consequences that may result from our ADL predictive modeling system’s suggestion that Oil may continue to fall to levels below $40 over the next few months. 

In Part I and ...



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Zero Hedge

S&P Futures Soar Above 3,100 On Trade Deal Optimism

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After several days without soothing trade deal commentary by Trump et al, US-China trade deal "optimism" stormed back on Thursday evening after upbeat trade deal comments from Trump's top economic advisor Larry Kudlow sent US equity futures, European bourses and Asian markets higher, even as the escalating wave of global protests from Hong Kong to Chile hints that it will all end in tears and guillotines.

...



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Phil's Favorites

The Stuff You Cannot Miss

 

The Stuff You Cannot Miss

Courtesy of 

I just wanted to wrap the week up with a few links because I’ve been reading so much great stuff and I didn’t want you to miss any of these…

Nick Maggiulli went long-form on why it’s so easy for people to be tricked by anecdotes and information derived from small sample size research:

It’s easy to poke fun at humans for their reliance on small sample sizes when making decisions, but this criticism fails to recognize our ancestral environment.  We evolved in a world where making sure you had a sufficient sample size before making a...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Insider Scoop

Glass House Group Appoints Graham Farrar As President

Courtesy of Benzinga

Glass House Group, a California-based cannabis and hemp company, earlier this week appointed Graham Farrar as president.

In his new role, Graham will oversee the company’s short and long-term business strategies, budgets and operations, and report up to Glass House Group CEO Kyle Kazan.

A long-time entrepreneur and an original team member of both Sonos (NASDAQ: SONO...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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