Posts Tagged ‘Shanghai Composite Index’

Xie: Chinese stocks are a Ponzi scheme

Xie: Chinese stocks are a Ponzi scheme

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made

Former Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Andy Xie says the Chinese stock market is still in "deep bubble territory", noting that the Shanghai Composite Index would have to fall another 25 percent to get to fair value.

 



He also noted that real estate sales account for 10 percent of GDP and half of all local government revenue. Earlier today, China’s stock market fell seven percent, the sharpest decline since June 2008, and is now down about 23 percent from the early-August peak.

 


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ANOTHER CHINA STOCK BUBBLE?

ANOTHER CHINA STOCK BUBBLE?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Interesting reading here from BNP on the potential of another Chinese stock market crash.  Their approach is interesting as they come to their conclusions using components of the same theories that make up my own work.  I, however, do not believe the Chinese market is in for a crash, but rather believe the “long decay” scenario is far more likely.  It would be highly unusual for two bubbles to form in the same market in such a short period of time – especially when the fundamentals and psychology of the market’s participants don’t justify it.  In fact, it could be called an anomaly since it has never happened before.   Not to mention the fact that we are nowhere near the stampeding euphoric sentiment that always accompanies a bubble:

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).
 


China_20Bubble

It must be noted that the model gives no indication on what happens after the critical point. It tells us the rise will end, but that might be with a crash or a slow decay.

By the very nature of the model, this result gives us two conclusions. Firstly, there exists a bubble in the Shanghai Composite Index. Secondly, it will reach a critical level around July 17-27, 2009. This will lead to a change in regime which may be a crash or a more gently bubble deflation. An extended version of this note, with a careful assessment of the confidence intervals and comparisons with the previous Chinese bubble ending in Oct. 2007, will be released soon.

 


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Phil's Favorites

It's almost as if the rally made sense

 

Image via Pixabay

It’s almost as if the rally made sense

Courtesy of 

Apple is the largest corporation on earth and, in the last quarter, their profits doubled versus the same quarter during the prior year. As my partner Barry likes to say, “Stop and think about it!”

Indeed, that’s f***ing bananas....



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Zero Hedge

Sydney Lockdown Extended For At Least A Month Stoking Fears Of "Double-Dip" Recession

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Sydney has been locked down for nearly a month now, and it looks like its residents and business owners will need to hold on for just a little bit longer, because the lockdown is being extended once again.

While restrictions have been eased in Melbourne and Adelaide - practically all of Australia's state capitals have been locked down to combat the delta variant, which has infected...only a few hundreds people across the entire country - authorities in New South Wales officially extended the lockdown in Greater Sydney for at le...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What is a breakthrough infection? 6 questions answered about catching COVID-19 after vaccination

 

What is a breakthrough infection? 6 questions answered about catching COVID-19 after vaccination

Vaccines don’t ward off every single infection but they do massively lower the risk. Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sanjay Mishra, Vanderbilt University

If you’ve been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, maybe you figured you no longer need to worry about contracting the coronavirus. But along with the rising number of new COVID-19 cases globally and growi...



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Digital Currencies

Is Amazon About To Start Accepting Crypto?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

For the first time ever, Amazon has shown itself to be interested in crypto with a new major hire within its payments-focused team.

Posted on Thursday, the new role seeks an experienced product leader with expertise in blockchain, central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies to “develop the case for the capabilities which should be developed” and drive overall product vision.

The Payments Acceptance & Experience team is seeking an experienced product leader to develop Amazon’s Digital Currency and Blockchain strategy and product roadmap

The Amazon Payment Acceptance & Experie...



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Chart School

Investing with Channels - Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The US has a lot of debt, to sell more units of the debt to non US buyers the FED and Treasury must get the unit price of the debt down.



This video assumes a 'risk on' bullish bias into the Nov 2022 US mid terms. The bias assumes a US dollar trending down from it current high price of $93 on the DXY.






 


 




Chart 1 - US Dollar Channels




 

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


 



...



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Politics

New York defines illegal firearms use as a 'public nuisance' in bid to pierce gun industry's powerful liability shield

 

New York defines illegal firearms use as a ‘public nuisance’ in bid to pierce gun industry’s powerful liability shield

Illegal gun use is now a public nuisance in New York. AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews

Courtesy of Timothy D. Lytton, Georgia State University

Could calling the illegal use of firearms a “public nuisance” bring an end to the gun industry’s immunity from civil lawsuits? ...



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Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

Don't miss Phil's Webinar on July 7 at 1:00 pm EST. It's FREE and open to all who wish to join.

Click here: 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6552545459443187211

Join us to learn Phil's trading tactics and strategies in real-time!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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