Posts Tagged ‘Shanghai Composite Index’

Xie: Chinese stocks are a Ponzi scheme

Xie: Chinese stocks are a Ponzi scheme

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made

Former Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Andy Xie says the Chinese stock market is still in "deep bubble territory", noting that the Shanghai Composite Index would have to fall another 25 percent to get to fair value.

 



He also noted that real estate sales account for 10 percent of GDP and half of all local government revenue. Earlier today, China’s stock market fell seven percent, the sharpest decline since June 2008, and is now down about 23 percent from the early-August peak.

 


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ANOTHER CHINA STOCK BUBBLE?

ANOTHER CHINA STOCK BUBBLE?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Interesting reading here from BNP on the potential of another Chinese stock market crash.  Their approach is interesting as they come to their conclusions using components of the same theories that make up my own work.  I, however, do not believe the Chinese market is in for a crash, but rather believe the “long decay” scenario is far more likely.  It would be highly unusual for two bubbles to form in the same market in such a short period of time – especially when the fundamentals and psychology of the market’s participants don’t justify it.  In fact, it could be called an anomaly since it has never happened before.   Not to mention the fact that we are nowhere near the stampeding euphoric sentiment that always accompanies a bubble:

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).
 


China_20Bubble

It must be noted that the model gives no indication on what happens after the critical point. It tells us the rise will end, but that might be with a crash or a slow decay.

By the very nature of the model, this result gives us two conclusions. Firstly, there exists a bubble in the Shanghai Composite Index. Secondly, it will reach a critical level around July 17-27, 2009. This will lead to a change in regime which may be a crash or a more gently bubble deflation. An extended version of this note, with a careful assessment of the confidence intervals and comparisons with the previous Chinese bubble ending in Oct. 2007, will be released soon.

 


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ValueWalk

Emerging Markets Stocks And ETFs For 2021

By Matthew Levy. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There’s not a rigid definition of what an emerging market is. For example, China is still the leading country in many emerging market ETFs and funds. But is it fair to consider China an emerging market any longer? It has nearly 1.4 billion people and was the only major economy globally to see GDP growth in 2020.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

That’s like calling Giannis Antetokounmpo an up and coming superstar despite winning the last two NBA MVP awards.

But even if I did see ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500 Testing Top Of 30-Year Rising Channel, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Do charts have memories? Can prices as far back as 45-years ago impact prices today? I understand if you answered both questions with a resounding no.

In my humble opinion, an important test of these questions comes into play at current prices in the S&P 500 at (1).

This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis since the late 1950s, where Fibonacci was applied to the 1974 lows and the 2000 & 2007 highs. The 261% Fibonacci extension level comes into play at (1), which is the 3,900 level in the S&P.

At the same time,...



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Zero Hedge

Here's What NatGas Bulls Are Betting On In The Next Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Weather models continue to suggest warmer than average temperatures this month across much of the US from the South to the Northeast. Warmer trends could continue next month, pressuring natural gas prices as demand crumbles. However, natgas bulls are closely watching the Polar Vortex and Madden Julian Oscillation for any shifts. 

Kirk Hinz, meteorologist in charge at US-based ...



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Phil's Favorites

The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game

 

The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

When I was a kid I played ‘Pong’ and ‘Space Invaders’ and Coleco Football and Mattel ‘Intellivision’.

In college I stopped.

Maybe if there were smartphones and no women, I would still be a ‘gamer’, but my generation was looking up not down.

I found the markets because I needed a first job and I was hooked.

It has been a battle of wits and behavior since. The markets have brought me to panic and fear on many occasions but most...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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