Posts Tagged ‘share price’

Banking on a Rebound?

Banking on a Rebound?

Courtesy of Dr. Paul Price www.BeatingBuffett.com   

Bloomberg Businessweek showed an interesting chart today of the change in earnings of 10 large banks from the boom year 2006 versus the same company’s 2010 estimate.

Bank earnings 2006 - 2010.JPG

 

Here are their respective share price performances from YE 2005 right through September 20, 2010:

Company

12/31/2005

09/20/2010

Stock % Change

Profit % Change

JP Morgan

$39.69

$39.10

(1.48%)

+21%

Goldman Sachs

$127.71

$144.91

+13.47%

-6%

HSBC

$80.47

$51.75

(35.69%)

-18%

Credit Suisse

$50.95

$43.51

(14.60%)

-24%

Deutsche Bank

$96.87

$59.79

(38.28%)

-42%

Barclays

$42.08

$19.00

(54.85%)

-43%

Morgan Stanley

$56.74

$26.06

(54.07%)

-51%

UBS

$95.15

$17.39

(81.72%)

-62%

Bank of Amer.

$46.15

$13.17

(71.46%)

-68%

Citigroup

$50.95

$3.80

(92.54%)

-89%

 

As a group the shares behaved pretty rationally with the exception of the top three. JPM showed a 21% profit gain while dropping 1.48% in share price. GS saw a 6% decline in EPS while the shares rose 13.5%. HSBC’s share price dropped twice as much as their earnings over the full period.

Strictly based on the historical data it would seem that JPM and HSBC might offer good risk/reward propositions due to mispricing versus the actual results.

Dr. Paul Price

Disclosure: Author is long GS and MS shares and short GS and MS options.

 


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Betting Does Not Equal Investing

Lesson: While hatred may FEEL good, it’s not the best premise for a winning investment strategy. – Ilene 

Betting Does Not Equal Investing

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

According to Dilbert creator Scott Adams (via an interesting WSJ piece ‘Betting on the Bad Guys’):

When I heard that BP was destroying a big portion of Earth, with no serious discussion of cutting their dividend, I had two thoughts: 1) I hate them, and 2) This would be an excellent time to buy their stock. And so I did. Although I should have waited a week.

People ask me how it feels to take the side of moral bankruptcy. Answer: Pretty good! Thanks for asking. How’s it feel to be a disgruntled victim?

But the danger of buying out of hatred can be seen with how long people have already "hated" BP (details of the hatred launch date):

On April 20, 2010, a semi-submersible exploratory offshore drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico exploded after a blowout and sank two days later, killing eleven people and causing a massive oil spill threatening the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, and Florida.

At the point of the initial explosion, the stock hung in there. Once details of the spill became known… down ~15%. Once details of the spill became even more known… down ~20%. Once details became even more known… ~30%, then ~40%, then ~50%.
 
 
This of course is due to the complete lack of transparency. While I know for sure that I truly hate BP, does that mean BP is now (at a 50% discount) a good buy? No clue.

It is very possible they are, but I can also see a situation where things get much worse in the gulf and for BP, which brings me to my next point. Buying purely out of hatred is 100% not an investment decision, but rather (as the title of his article says) betting. I personally love betting, but I keep that to non-investment related matters (anyone think the Celtics are winning the series?).

But don’t say Scott didn’t warn you:

This would be a good time to remind you not to make investment decisions based on the wisdom of cartoonists.

And this:

Again, I remind you to ignore me.

Source: Yahoo  


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Phil's Favorites

Partisan divide creates different Americas, separate lives

 

Partisan divide creates different Americas, separate lives

Even in the physical world, it’s hard to cross partisan lines. igorstevanovic/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Robert B. Talisse, Vanderbilt University

When people try to explain why the United States is so politically polarized now, they frequently refer to the concept of &ldq...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Zero Hedge

Blain: "It's A Bad Week For The Credibility Of Mohammed bin Salman"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Blain's Morning Porrdige, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

Saudi….

Its turning into a bad week for the credibility of Mohammed bin Salman, the defacto ruler of Saudi.  After the Globe’s third largest defence spending state was crippled by supposedly unsophisticated Houthi rebels (with some likely assistance from Iran) when they struck his oil infrastructure, this morning the headlines are all about how MBS is now arm-twisting rich Saudi’s to buy into the discredited Aramco IPO. 

In...



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The Technical Traders

Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning
with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.

Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets.  These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate.  Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the
floor for the next move higher.

The one aspect that many traders ...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Statement On Repurchase Operation - Roll Over Beethoven!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of NY | Press Releases. Original: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operation. Reposted with permission. 

September 19, 2019

In accordance with the FOMC Directive issued September 18, 2019, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will conduct an overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operation from 8:15 AM ET to 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, Friday, September 20, 2019, in order to help maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 1-3/4 to 2 percent.

This repo operation will be conducted w...



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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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