Posts Tagged ‘short interest’

Goldman’s Hit List: Bear, Moody’s, NatCity, PMI, WaMu And Capital One

Goodfellas’ Hit Scene 

 

Goldman’s Hit List: Bear, Moody’s, NatCity, PMI, WaMu And Capital One

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

As Bruce Krasting disclosed yesterday, Goldman’s Josh Birnbaum "slipped" when disclosing the firm’s prop equity positions, in listing the companies his firm was actively shorting. We hope none of these were naked shorts as that would not reinforce the case of prudent risk management by Goldman’s discount window-accessible hedge fund (in other words, the entire firm). Today, via the full exhibit list, we learn that in addition to Bear Stearns, in July 2007 the firm, via Josh, was also actively shorting a variety of other mortgage-related firms at the Structured Products Group via puts, which in addition to Bear, included Moody’s, National City, PMI, WaMu, and Capital One. The firm only had a micro S&P long offset. As the list demonstrates, the firm had a big delta short in fins offset with no financial longs, thus refuting Josh’s testimony that this was a "hedge" when in reality this was nothing than a directional short bet on fins. What is more troubling is that Josh was planning on expanding the list to a whole slew of other firms, and specifically competitors, most of which eventually going under: including Lehman, Merrill, and Morgan Stanley.

We are confident that sooner or later AIG made the list, if not so much on the equity short side, as long CDS. If anyone wants to make the conspiratorial case that Goldman may have had the upper hand on these firms by knowing their liquidity situation and profited from it by shorting them as each bank in turn experienced a bank run, this could be a good place to start. It also begs the question if Dodd’s worthless bill has anything to see about predatory practices by Wall Street firms which actively short each other, potentially leading to a destabilization of the system.


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SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud On Subprime Mortgages, Paulson & Co. Implicated

SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud On Subprime Mortgages, Paulson & Co. Implicated

Courtesy of Zero Hedge  

Washington, D.C., April 16, 2010 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Goldman, Sachs & Co. and one of its vice presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the U.S. housing market was beginning to falter.

The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Goldman Sachs failed to disclose to investors vital information about the CDO, in particular the role that a major hedge fund played in the portfolio selection process and the fact that the hedge fund had taken a short position against the CDO.

"The product was new and complex but the deception and conflicts are old and simple," said Robert Khuzami, Director of the Division of Enforcement. "Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party." 

Kenneth Lench, Chief of the SEC’s Structured and New Products Unit, added, "The SEC continues to investigate the practices of investment banks and others involved in the securitization of complex financial products tied to the U.S. housing market as it was beginning to show signs of distress."

The SEC alleges that one of the world’s largest hedge funds, Paulson & Co., paid Goldman Sachs to structure a transaction in which Paulson & Co. could take short positions against mortgage securities chosen by Paulson & Co. based on a belief that the securities would experience credit events.

According to the SEC’s complaint, filed in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the marketing materials for the CDO known as ABACUS 2007-AC1 (ABACUS) all represented that the RMBS portfolio underlying the CDO was selected by ACA Management LLC (ACA), a third party with expertise in analyzing credit risk in RMBS. The SEC alleges that undisclosed in the marketing materials and unbeknownst to investors, the Paulson & Co. hedge fund, which was poised to benefit if the RMBS defaulted, played a significant role in selecting which RMBS should make up the portfolio.

The SEC’s complaint alleges that after participating in the…
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Short Interest At Lowest Levels In Over 2 Years

Short Interest At Lowest Levels In Over 2 Years

Courtesy of Market Folly (and Bespoke)

Thanks to the fine folks over at Bespoke as always for flagging this data. We now see that short interest in the S&P 1500 is at the lowest levels since February 2007, sitting currently at 6.6%. Take it for what it’s worth:

Short Interest 0831 

Market Folly

 


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SENTIMENT UPDATE – INVESTORS ARE COMPLACENT

SENTIMENT UPDATE – INVESTORS ARE COMPLACENT

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Earlier this week we mentioned the sharp change in short interest over the prior months.   I wrote:

Much of the fuel for the 50% rally in the S&P 500 has come from short covering.  The general skepticism surrounding the recovery has actually resulted in price gains.  But as the rally gets long in the tooth we could be seeing signs that short covering will have a much smaller impact.

The huge declines in short interest are a sign of capitulation in short selling.  The bears have been truly slaughtered during this bull run.  The change in short interest should be viewed as a contrarian indicator at this juncture.  This is also a clear sign of a major change in investor sentiment.

In addition to major changes in short interest, this weeks AAII poll displayed a remarkably bullish reading of 51%.  We haven’t seen a reading this high since May 2008 just after the government intervened in Bear Stearns and the market rallied.  At the time, everyone was bullish and was declaring that a recession was off the table and a second half recovery was a near certainty.  Of course, when everyone is on the same side of the boat, it’s wise to either move to the other side or simply jump off.  The bullish side of the trade, in terms of sentiment is incredibly crowded.  Positive sentiment can remain high for extended periods of time and can be a major driver in higher prices, however, these environments make for very poor risk/reward scenarios.  If any element of doubt or uncertainty creeps into the market we could easily see a sharp and dramatic correction.

AAII

 

 


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RUNNING OUT OF FUEL FOR THE RALLY?

RUNNING OUT OF FUEL FOR THE RALLY?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Much of the fuel for the 50% rally in the S&P 500 has come from short covering.  The general skepticism surrounding the recovery has actually resulted in price gains.  But as the rally gets long in the tooth we could be seeing signs that short covering will have a much smaller impact.  Bespoke Investment Group reports:

Following July’s leg higher, it seems that traders on the short side have cut and run.  As shown in the chart below, the average stock in the S&P 500 had 4.97% of its float sold short as of the end of July.  This is the lowest level since January 30th, and marks a decline of 17% from the peak levels in July 2008.  Bears will cite this number as proof that investors are crowded on the long side.  While bulls would probably prefer to see higher levels of short interest, they are likely to note that short interest still remains high from a longer-term perspective.

bespoke

Source: Bespoke

 


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WAS IT JUST A SHORT COVERING RALLY?

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WAS IT JUST A SHORT COVERING RALLY?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The light volume, poor breadth and quick surge in the market over the last three days has a lot of people calling this nothing more than a short covering rally.  I went back and looked at the list of the S&P 500 stocks with the highest short interest to see how they’ve performed over the last three days.  The results are pretty good.  The average stock on the list has returned 10.5% over the last three days with none of them turning in a negative return.  The S&P is up 6% over the same period.  The Nasdaq 100 is up 5% and the Russell 2000 is up 7% over the same period which would imply that beta has had little to do with the overall return of these names and that this has indeed been a short covering rally.

si1 - short interest

 

 


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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - Rotation Rotation Rotation is The New Location Location Location

 

Momentum Monday – Rotation Rotation Rotation is The New Location Location Location

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Happy Monday everyone.

Not much has changed in the last week.

Tech leaders are correcting and the money is flowing into other stocks and markets…not out of the market.

The promise of low interest rates and money printing has most people focused on being in the markets.

As always, to kick off Momentum Monday’s, Ivanhoff and I tour the markets for what we see and like and are thinking. You can watch/listen right h...



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Biotech/COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 infection can block pain, opening up unexpected new possibilities for research into pain relief medication

 

SARS-CoV-2 infection can block pain, opening up unexpected new possibilities for research into pain relief medication

The spike protein on SARS-CoV-2 interferes with pain perception. SEBASTIAN KAULITZKI/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY/Getty Images

By Rajesh Khanna, University of Arizona

Imagine being infected with a deadly virus that makes you impervious to pain. By the time you realize you are infected, it’s already too late. You have spread it far and wide. Recent findings in my lab suggest that this scenario may be one rea...



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Zero Hedge

2020 Has Been A "Nightmare Year" For America, And The Economic Fallout Is Just Getting Started

Courtesy of Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog

Most of us have never experienced a year that has been as tough as 2020 has been for our nation.  It has just been one major crisis after another, and the month of September has brought us even more trouble.  The worst wildfire season in the history of the state of California has been making headlines day after day, and now the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg threatens to escalate the political turmoil in this nation to an entirely new level. 

Many had such high hopes for 2020, but at this point this year has been such a disaster that USA Today is calling...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Could It Be "Schitts Creek" For Technology Stocks If Selling Starts Here?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Nasdaq has been the unparalleled leader of the stock market in 2020, having rallied furiously off the COVID-19 crash market bottom in March.

But all of the excitement around tech stocks and the comeback in the stock market may be coming to an end… that is, if a key Fibonacci price target has anything to do with it!

In today’s chart, we look at the long-term “monthly” chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) and focus in on the 18-year rally.

As you can see, the Nasdaq peaked in 2000 and bottomed in 2002. Applying Fibona...



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ValueWalk

Global Banking Stocks Hit Hard By FinCEN Leak

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on the impact of FinCEN leak on global banking stocks and today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The major indices are all trading considerably lower at midday following the most bearish overnight session since June. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow all hit new correction lows in early trading, but the tech benchmark has been slightly stronger than its peers. The troubling European COVID trends reignited the "lockdown trade" and put pressure on the most sensitive industries and cyclical issues, in...



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Politics

Can Trump and McConnell get through the 4 steps to seat a Supreme Court justice in just 6 weeks?

 

Can Trump and McConnell get through the 4 steps to seat a Supreme Court justice in just 6 weeks?

A political battle is shaping up over the confirmation of the next Supreme Court Justice. Jose Luis Magana / AFP/Getty Images

By Caren Morrison, Georgia State University

United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Sept. 18, thrusting the acrimonious struggle for control of the Supreme Court into public view.

President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have already ...



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Chart School

Stocks are not done yet - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There are a few times in history when a third party said this US paper (stocks, funds or bonds) is worthless.

Here is two.

1) 1965 Nixon Shock - The French said to US we do not want your paper dollars please pay us in gold. This of course led to the US going off the gold standard.

2) 2007 Bear Stern Fund Collapse - Investors said their funds collateral was worth much less than stated. This of course was the beginning of the great america housing bust of 2008.


In both cases it was stated .."look the Emperor is naked!"... (The Empe...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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