Posts Tagged ‘SHORT’

DHH Options Time

Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking (2) & Options Time Again

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World 

My heater’s broke and I’m so tired 
I need some fuel to build a fire (actually need something that cools heat down)
The girl next door (Tokyo), her lights are out, yeah
The landlord’s gone, I’m down and out
It’s cold gin (option) time again
You know it’ll always win – KISS

The tragic developments in Japan took center stage this past week and our hearts go out to everyone in Japan, and everyone who is touched by this catastrophic event.    

Prior to the earthquake and tsunami, the VIRTUAL Dark Horse Hedge virtual portfolio was positioned with a 70% Long / 30% Short tilt. We are now considering moving to a 50% / 50% balance. We will most likely do that, assuming no material change in the world events, by adding to our short positions next week.  In the meantime, we have two option positions which are expiring today and we wanted to add to the review we began last week.  (Click here for our first four long positions reviewed a week ago.)  

Options Expiration:

Radware Ltd (RDWR): On November 11, 2010 we added Radware (RDWR) to the virtual portfolio using Phil’s Buy/Write strategy.  At that time RDWR was trading at $33.39 and we added half the shares we wanted (100) and sold the March $35 2011 call and March $35 2011 put to complete the buy/write. On December 7, 2010 when the stock traded up to $40, we rolled the call out to the Jan $35 2012 call, which we sold for $9. We kept the March $35 2011 put we had already sold for $5.10.  The put (as 65-70% of options do) will expire worthless today yielding a $5.10 profit.  At this time, we believe it is prudent to hold the shares, currently trading at $35.56, and the Jan $35 2012 call.

Xyratex (XRTX): On December 20, 2010 we added Xyratex (XRTX) using the buy/write strategy and acquiring half the shares we wanted exposure to and selling March $15 calls and puts for a net $3.60.  XRTX is trading at $11.14 today on expiration day, so the call side will expire worthless ($1.80 profit) and the puts will be exercised – the


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IS THE SMART MONEY GETTING SHORT?

IS THE SMART MONEY GETTING SHORT?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The most recent commitment of traders report (courtesy of Sentiment Trader) shows a massive short accumulation in the Nasdaq 100.  If you look at past occurrences their market timing has been fairly good.  The current net short position is almost twice as large as any occurrence in the last 5 years.  Is the dumb money on the wrong side of the trade or are the institutions about to become fuel for the next leg up?


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Don’t Stop Believin’ – DHH shorting HUSA again

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Don’t Stop Believin’

By Scott and Ilene 

Dealer holding dice

Working hard to get my fill
Everybody wants a thrill
Payin’ anything to roll the dice just one more time

Some will win, some will lose
Some were born to sing the blues
Oh, the movie never ends
It goes on and on and on and on

Don’t stop believin’

Journey, Don’t Stop Believing

 

Last weekend we wondered “Where do we go from here?” and so far the answer is nowhere.  The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 1125 and today at 1124.  We went through what thus far would be classified as a false breakout on Monday as the indexes continued the strong September showing but have traded lower every day since on continuing worries about jobs, or the lack thereof. 

HUSA however has inched its way back up to $9.87 during that same period and triggered a 4th DHH recommendation to SHORT HUSA.  The reasons have been well chronicled in past editions and so we won’t recite them again other than to repeat the song “It goes on and on and on and on”.  Nothing has changed about HUSA since the first SHORT on July 1, 2010. 

SHORT HUSA at the open Friday, September 24, 2010

Don’t Stop Believing, Journey

Chart by FreeStockCharts.com


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Dark Horse Hedge: BOOM! take profits and run

DARK HORSE HEDGE: BOOM! take profits and run

LAS VEGAS - FEBRUARY 14:  Clouds of smoke rise after the eight-story, 166-room tower of the Bourbon Street Hotel & Casino was imploded early February 14, 2006 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Harrah's Entertainment, Inc. purchased the property last year for future development but has not decided what will be done with the site.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Buy to cover Dynamic Materials Corp (BOOM) at the Market, Friday July 30, 2010

In the spirit of "second verse, same as the first" Dark Horse Hedge will take advantage of the less than well received earnings report from BOOM after Thursday’s close to cover the SHORT position taken on 7/23/10 at $16.15.

BOOM is down over 9% for the day and we will replace BOOM with another short during the day as we monitor the market’s activity.

Check back. 


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VXX – Buy signal update

VXX – Buy signal update

Courtesy of Allan 

Below a follow-up of the April 28 VXX Buy signal:

VXX Daily Trend Model

Maybe more significant is the Weekly Trend Modelwhich has been on a Sell signal since May 4, 2009.  Here is the weekly chart:

VXX Weekly Trend Model

All of my stock index models that recently went Short in their Daily Models are now knocking on the Exit door of their respective Weekly Models.  Should those models flip to Short (with VXX flipping Long on its Weekly Model), I will be all-in on the short side. 

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with his trend-following trading system. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model, read this introductory article.


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Another Go @ GS

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report!

Another Go @ GS

Courtesy of Tim Knight’s Slope of Hope

Now that GS earnings are behind us, the stock is still noodling around its 50% retracement. I think this is a pretty low-risk place to either short it or pick up puts on the cheap.

0714-gs, shorting Goldman Sachs 

 

 


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DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT

DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Damon Vickers, whose hedge fund returned 63% last year, started getting aggressively short last week and earlier this week.

 

 


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Phil's Favorites

The Real World

 

The Real World

Courtesy of 

“What’s going on in the stock market?”

This usually isn’t an easy question to answer. But we live in unusual times and right now the stock market is very easy to explain.

Look through a few dozen charts and you’ll find a very clean narrative. Today’s winners were last year’s losers and today’s losers were last year’s winners. Said differently, stocks in the physical world are outperforming stocks that live in the digital world.

Look at this chart which compares the two groups. In the physical world, we have Macy’s, Marriott, MGM, Royal Caribbean, Delta, Simon Pr...



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Zero Hedge

Kolanovic: Most Are Unprepared For The Coming Persistent Inflation Shock

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

For the past two years, JPMorgan's head quant and resident permabull, Marko Kolanovic, has been periodically predicting an imminent rotation out of growth and into value stocks (a rotation which had failed to take hold until earlier this year when we finally saw some glimmers of value outperformance). Most recently, Kolanovic predicted in February that March would see a major move higher in commodity names as vol-control funds and CTAs started buying up commodity and reflation-linked stocks on the 1 year anniversary of the covid crash only to see the energy sector slump in the next two mont...



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Biotech/COVID-19

India COVID crisis: four reasons it will derail the world economy

 

India COVID crisis: four reasons it will derail the world economy

India is the fifth largest economy in the world. Deepak Choudhary/Unsplash

Courtesy of Uma S Kambhampati, University of Reading

The second wave of the pandemic has struck India with a devastating impact. With over 300,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths across the country each day at present, the total number of deaths has just passed the 200,000 mark – that’s about one in 16 of all COVID deaths across the world....



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Digital Currencies

Historic Reversal: For The First Time Ever Ether Options Trading Volume Surpasses Bitcoin's

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The world is gradually realizing that whereas bitcoin is a one-trick pony (one which may or may not be replaced by central bank digital currencies), it is ethereum that is the truly revolutionary architecture powering the new digital realm. We saw this on Monday when not only did ethereum soar as bitcoin prices stagnated, but that's also when Crypto derivatives exchange Deribit experienced an unusual trend for the first time ever: its ether (ETH) options trading volume (...



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Chart School

Yellen can not stop the dollar decline

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Printing money results in a lower currency, so long as the currency does not fall too fast.

Previous Post: US Dollar Forecast - Weakness

Here are the very strong fundamentals for a lower US dollar: 

(a) US inflation exploding.
(b) Massive US twin deficits.
(c) Better conditions in Europe.

However French election worries in 2022 Q1 and Q2 may provide US dollar strength (via European weakness) after Christmas, but this strength may come after a low in the DXY near $84.  

It looks like Yellen knows a down swing in the US dollar is near because ...

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Politics

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

 

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Over the past few decades, hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens have become part of the middle class. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

China’s large and impressive accomplishments over the past four decades have spurred scholars and politicians to debate whether the decline of the West – including the ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.