Posts Tagged ‘SHORT’

DHH Options Time

Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking (2) & Options Time Again

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World 

My heater’s broke and I’m so tired 
I need some fuel to build a fire (actually need something that cools heat down)
The girl next door (Tokyo), her lights are out, yeah
The landlord’s gone, I’m down and out
It’s cold gin (option) time again
You know it’ll always win – KISS

The tragic developments in Japan took center stage this past week and our hearts go out to everyone in Japan, and everyone who is touched by this catastrophic event.    

Prior to the earthquake and tsunami, the VIRTUAL Dark Horse Hedge virtual portfolio was positioned with a 70% Long / 30% Short tilt. We are now considering moving to a 50% / 50% balance. We will most likely do that, assuming no material change in the world events, by adding to our short positions next week.  In the meantime, we have two option positions which are expiring today and we wanted to add to the review we began last week.  (Click here for our first four long positions reviewed a week ago.)  

Options Expiration:

Radware Ltd (RDWR): On November 11, 2010 we added Radware (RDWR) to the virtual portfolio using Phil’s Buy/Write strategy.  At that time RDWR was trading at $33.39 and we added half the shares we wanted (100) and sold the March $35 2011 call and March $35 2011 put to complete the buy/write. On December 7, 2010 when the stock traded up to $40, we rolled the call out to the Jan $35 2012 call, which we sold for $9. We kept the March $35 2011 put we had already sold for $5.10.  The put (as 65-70% of options do) will expire worthless today yielding a $5.10 profit.  At this time, we believe it is prudent to hold the shares, currently trading at $35.56, and the Jan $35 2012 call.

Xyratex (XRTX): On December 20, 2010 we added Xyratex (XRTX) using the buy/write strategy and acquiring half the shares we wanted exposure to and selling March $15 calls and puts for a net $3.60.  XRTX is trading at $11.14 today on expiration day, so the call side will expire worthless ($1.80 profit) and the puts will be exercised – the


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IS THE SMART MONEY GETTING SHORT?

IS THE SMART MONEY GETTING SHORT?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The most recent commitment of traders report (courtesy of Sentiment Trader) shows a massive short accumulation in the Nasdaq 100.  If you look at past occurrences their market timing has been fairly good.  The current net short position is almost twice as large as any occurrence in the last 5 years.  Is the dumb money on the wrong side of the trade or are the institutions about to become fuel for the next leg up?


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Don’t Stop Believin’ – DHH shorting HUSA again

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Don’t Stop Believin’

By Scott and Ilene 

Dealer holding dice

Working hard to get my fill
Everybody wants a thrill
Payin’ anything to roll the dice just one more time

Some will win, some will lose
Some were born to sing the blues
Oh, the movie never ends
It goes on and on and on and on

Don’t stop believin’

Journey, Don’t Stop Believing

 

Last weekend we wondered “Where do we go from here?” and so far the answer is nowhere.  The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 1125 and today at 1124.  We went through what thus far would be classified as a false breakout on Monday as the indexes continued the strong September showing but have traded lower every day since on continuing worries about jobs, or the lack thereof. 

HUSA however has inched its way back up to $9.87 during that same period and triggered a 4th DHH recommendation to SHORT HUSA.  The reasons have been well chronicled in past editions and so we won’t recite them again other than to repeat the song “It goes on and on and on and on”.  Nothing has changed about HUSA since the first SHORT on July 1, 2010. 

SHORT HUSA at the open Friday, September 24, 2010

Don’t Stop Believing, Journey

Chart by FreeStockCharts.com


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Dark Horse Hedge: BOOM! take profits and run

DARK HORSE HEDGE: BOOM! take profits and run

LAS VEGAS - FEBRUARY 14:  Clouds of smoke rise after the eight-story, 166-room tower of the Bourbon Street Hotel & Casino was imploded early February 14, 2006 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Harrah's Entertainment, Inc. purchased the property last year for future development but has not decided what will be done with the site.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Buy to cover Dynamic Materials Corp (BOOM) at the Market, Friday July 30, 2010

In the spirit of "second verse, same as the first" Dark Horse Hedge will take advantage of the less than well received earnings report from BOOM after Thursday’s close to cover the SHORT position taken on 7/23/10 at $16.15.

BOOM is down over 9% for the day and we will replace BOOM with another short during the day as we monitor the market’s activity.

Check back. 


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VXX – Buy signal update

VXX – Buy signal update

Courtesy of Allan 

Below a follow-up of the April 28 VXX Buy signal:

VXX Daily Trend Model

Maybe more significant is the Weekly Trend Modelwhich has been on a Sell signal since May 4, 2009.  Here is the weekly chart:

VXX Weekly Trend Model

All of my stock index models that recently went Short in their Daily Models are now knocking on the Exit door of their respective Weekly Models.  Should those models flip to Short (with VXX flipping Long on its Weekly Model), I will be all-in on the short side. 

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with his trend-following trading system. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model, read this introductory article.


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Another Go @ GS

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Another Go @ GS

Courtesy of Tim Knight’s Slope of Hope

Now that GS earnings are behind us, the stock is still noodling around its 50% retracement. I think this is a pretty low-risk place to either short it or pick up puts on the cheap.

0714-gs, shorting Goldman Sachs 

 

 


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DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT

DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Damon Vickers, whose hedge fund returned 63% last year, started getting aggressively short last week and earlier this week.

 

 


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Phil's Favorites

In its anti-'Medicare for All' push, the health insurance industry pulls from an old playbook

 

In its anti-'Medicare for All' push, the health insurance industry pulls from an old playbook

If you’re strangled by health care costs, are you really ‘free’? jwblinn/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Burton St. John III, University of Colorado Boulder

As a debate continues to rage within the Democratic Party over “Medicare for All,” the health care industry has quietly girded itself to fight the elimination of for-profit health care.

In the summer of 2018, trade groups rep...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Drop As Tariff Deadline, Central Banks Looms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Global stocks, US equity futures, 10Y TSY yields and the US dollar dropped for a second day on Tuesday, amid what conventional wisdom said was "caution over a Dec. 15 deadline for the next round of U.S. tariffs" as well as looming Fed and ECB meetings and UK elections (although the real risk factor is the repo market as we will discuss shortly).

Following their counterparts in Asia, European shares fell again, with the Stoxx 600 index down over 1%  on course for its bigges...



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Insider Scoop

5 Stocks Moving In Tuesday's After-Hours Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: OLLI) shares are up 11% after reporting a third-quarter earnings beat. Earnings came in at 41 cents per share, beating estimates by 3 cents. Sales came in at $327.049 million, beating estimates by $4.549 million.
  • Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ: ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Bank Stocks Sending Bullish Message To Investors?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Just as the health of the banking sector is a big deal to the economy, it’s equally important to the S&P 500 (SPY) and broader stock market.

Although the bull market has grinding higher, it’s awaiting confirmation from the banks and banks stocks.

Today’s chart is of the S&P 500 Bank ETF (KBE) and shows how the banks are at an important juncture in time and price.

KBE (the bank ETF) is testing the upper end of a falling channel, offering bulls an opportunity for a breakout – see point (2).

The banks were at a similar juncture nearl...



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Digital Currencies

The Road To Retirement: Millennials Put Their Faith In Bitcoin But Goldman Says Go With Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

"Drop Gold" - the ever-present tagline of Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust TV commercial - appears to be working its magic on a certain cohort of society.

2019 has seen assets under management in GBTC soar...

Source: Bloomberg

And for Millennials, according to the lates...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 

Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices.

The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).


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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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