Posts Tagged ‘SHORT’

DHH Options Time

Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking (2) & Options Time Again

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World 

My heater’s broke and I’m so tired 
I need some fuel to build a fire (actually need something that cools heat down)
The girl next door (Tokyo), her lights are out, yeah
The landlord’s gone, I’m down and out
It’s cold gin (option) time again
You know it’ll always win – KISS

The tragic developments in Japan took center stage this past week and our hearts go out to everyone in Japan, and everyone who is touched by this catastrophic event.    

Prior to the earthquake and tsunami, the VIRTUAL Dark Horse Hedge virtual portfolio was positioned with a 70% Long / 30% Short tilt. We are now considering moving to a 50% / 50% balance. We will most likely do that, assuming no material change in the world events, by adding to our short positions next week.  In the meantime, we have two option positions which are expiring today and we wanted to add to the review we began last week.  (Click here for our first four long positions reviewed a week ago.)  

Options Expiration:

Radware Ltd (RDWR): On November 11, 2010 we added Radware (RDWR) to the virtual portfolio using Phil’s Buy/Write strategy.  At that time RDWR was trading at $33.39 and we added half the shares we wanted (100) and sold the March $35 2011 call and March $35 2011 put to complete the buy/write. On December 7, 2010 when the stock traded up to $40, we rolled the call out to the Jan $35 2012 call, which we sold for $9. We kept the March $35 2011 put we had already sold for $5.10.  The put (as 65-70% of options do) will expire worthless today yielding a $5.10 profit.  At this time, we believe it is prudent to hold the shares, currently trading at $35.56, and the Jan $35 2012 call.

Xyratex (XRTX): On December 20, 2010 we added Xyratex (XRTX) using the buy/write strategy and acquiring half the shares we wanted exposure to and selling March $15 calls and puts for a net $3.60.  XRTX is trading at $11.14 today on expiration day, so the call side will expire worthless ($1.80 profit) and the puts will be exercised – the


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IS THE SMART MONEY GETTING SHORT?

IS THE SMART MONEY GETTING SHORT?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The most recent commitment of traders report (courtesy of Sentiment Trader) shows a massive short accumulation in the Nasdaq 100.  If you look at past occurrences their market timing has been fairly good.  The current net short position is almost twice as large as any occurrence in the last 5 years.  Is the dumb money on the wrong side of the trade or are the institutions about to become fuel for the next leg up?


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Don’t Stop Believin’ – DHH shorting HUSA again

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Don’t Stop Believin’

By Scott and Ilene 

Dealer holding dice

Working hard to get my fill
Everybody wants a thrill
Payin’ anything to roll the dice just one more time

Some will win, some will lose
Some were born to sing the blues
Oh, the movie never ends
It goes on and on and on and on

Don’t stop believin’

Journey, Don’t Stop Believing

 

Last weekend we wondered “Where do we go from here?” and so far the answer is nowhere.  The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 1125 and today at 1124.  We went through what thus far would be classified as a false breakout on Monday as the indexes continued the strong September showing but have traded lower every day since on continuing worries about jobs, or the lack thereof. 

HUSA however has inched its way back up to $9.87 during that same period and triggered a 4th DHH recommendation to SHORT HUSA.  The reasons have been well chronicled in past editions and so we won’t recite them again other than to repeat the song “It goes on and on and on and on”.  Nothing has changed about HUSA since the first SHORT on July 1, 2010. 

SHORT HUSA at the open Friday, September 24, 2010

Don’t Stop Believing, Journey

Chart by FreeStockCharts.com


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Dark Horse Hedge: BOOM! take profits and run

DARK HORSE HEDGE: BOOM! take profits and run

LAS VEGAS - FEBRUARY 14:  Clouds of smoke rise after the eight-story, 166-room tower of the Bourbon Street Hotel & Casino was imploded early February 14, 2006 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Harrah's Entertainment, Inc. purchased the property last year for future development but has not decided what will be done with the site.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Buy to cover Dynamic Materials Corp (BOOM) at the Market, Friday July 30, 2010

In the spirit of "second verse, same as the first" Dark Horse Hedge will take advantage of the less than well received earnings report from BOOM after Thursday’s close to cover the SHORT position taken on 7/23/10 at $16.15.

BOOM is down over 9% for the day and we will replace BOOM with another short during the day as we monitor the market’s activity.

Check back. 


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VXX – Buy signal update

VXX – Buy signal update

Courtesy of Allan 

Below a follow-up of the April 28 VXX Buy signal:

VXX Daily Trend Model

Maybe more significant is the Weekly Trend Modelwhich has been on a Sell signal since May 4, 2009.  Here is the weekly chart:

VXX Weekly Trend Model

All of my stock index models that recently went Short in their Daily Models are now knocking on the Exit door of their respective Weekly Models.  Should those models flip to Short (with VXX flipping Long on its Weekly Model), I will be all-in on the short side. 

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with his trend-following trading system. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model, read this introductory article.


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Another Go @ GS

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report!

Another Go @ GS

Courtesy of Tim Knight’s Slope of Hope

Now that GS earnings are behind us, the stock is still noodling around its 50% retracement. I think this is a pretty low-risk place to either short it or pick up puts on the cheap.

0714-gs, shorting Goldman Sachs 

 

 


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DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT

DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Damon Vickers, whose hedge fund returned 63% last year, started getting aggressively short last week and earlier this week.

 

 


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Phil's Favorites

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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ValueWalk

Chinese Investments And COVID-19: What Future For Chinese Companies In The International Economy?

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Over the last 10 years, China has become a major player in foreign direct investment (FDI). According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, by the end of 2019 over 27,500 Chinese companies had invested in 188 countries around the world, and 44,000 companies had been started abroad. Asia, Europe and Latin America are the main destinations for these investments. The coronavirus pandemic has severely curtailed global trade and reduced FDI flows. Amidst this unprecedented global health crisis, what does the future hold for Chinese companies in the international economy? Ni Gao (full bio) below explains the importance of FDI for China.

...



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Zero Hedge

Global Markets, S&P Futures Flat With US Markets Closed For MLK Holiday

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US cash markets may be closed for Monday's MLK holiday, but US equity futures are humming and at last check they were unchanged from Friday's close at 3, 762 after earlier dropping as much as 20 points.

“Markets needed a breather or even a pull back to justify reflationary expectations,” said Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors.

Despite the dip, stocks remains just shy of...



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Chart School

Why did selling SP500 volatility trades blow up?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many have made their fortunes selling volatility premium and then losing it, that is because they are running down the lit fuse and not understanding that eventually the strategy blows up.

In the chart below periods marked with A, B, C, D are periods of chasing yield which was so great the selling of option premium became vogue. Yes, this strategy worked for a while and 'this time was different' worked, until it didn't.

Selling volatility work great during period gray A until the cycle ended at red A.
Selling volatility work great during period gray B until the cycle ended at red B.
Selling volatility work great during period gray C until the cycle ended at blue C.
Selling volatility work great during period gray D un...

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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Politics

Trump supporters seeking more violence could target state capitols during inauguration - here's how cities can prepare

 

Trump supporters seeking more violence could target state capitols during inauguration – here's how cities can prepare

The FBI says armed protests are planned at all 50 state capitols ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration. Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jennifer Earl, University of Arizona

Americans witnessed an alarming and deadly failure in planning and policing at ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.