Posts Tagged ‘small banks’

91 Banks Miss May TARP Payment, 68 Banks Miss Multiple Payments; Top 10 Sovereign Debt Default Risks; New “Merle Hazard” Song – “Legal Tender”

91 Banks Miss May TARP Payment, 68 Banks Miss Multiple Payments; Top 10 Sovereign Debt Default Risks; New "Merle Hazard" Song – "Legal Tender"

Courtesy of Mish 

Six hundred small banks still hold $130 billion in unpaid TARP payments with taxpayers on the hook. Records show Over 90 Banks Miss their May TARP Payment.

Statistics, compiled by SNL Financial from U.S. Treasury data, showed 91 banks and thrifts skipped the May dividend payment under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. It was the first missed payment for 23 of the banks; for the others, it was at least their second miss.

The number of banks missing their TARP payments rose for the third straight quarter. In February, 74 banks deferred their payments; 55 deferred last November. SNL Financial’s analysis found 20 banks have missed four or more payments since the program began in 2008, while eight banks have missed five payments.

While many of the largest U.S. banks easily repaid billions in TARP aid, more than 600 smaller banks still hold $130 billion from the program, created at the height of the financial crisis.

Most of the banks failing to make TARP payments are bankruptcy candidates.

Top 10 Sovereign Debt Default Risks

Inquiring minds might also be interested in a slideshow of Government Debt Issuers Most Likely to Default.

Minus the slide images here are the results.

1. Argentina – CPD: 50.14% – Mid Spread: 1081.14
2. Venezuela – CPD: 49.76% – Mid Spread: 1013.78
3. Ukraine – CPD: 44.12% – Mid Spread: 884.91
4. Pakistan – CPD: 42.17% – Mid Spread: 803.20
5. Dubai, UAE – CPD: 32.46% – Mid Spread: 572.92
6. Republic of Latvia – CPD: 29.13% – Mid Spread: 513.31
7. Iraq – CPD: 28.25% – Mid Spread: 475.97
8. Iceland – CPD: 27.03% – Mid Spread: 476.34
9. Greece – CPD: 24.92% – Mid Spread: 341.54
10. Dominican Republic – CPD: 23.37% – Mid Spread: 375.00

From the article: "The countries are ranked by their cumulative probability of default (CPD), which gives the market’s assessment of an issuer’s likelihood of default over the life of a CDS contract."

Those numbers are from March as ranked by CMA. Greece is certainly higher now.

New "Merle Hazard" Song – "Legal Tender"

“Legal Tender” is an original lyric by Merle Hazard and…
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The small bank – big bank dichotomy

The small bank – big bank dichotomy

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

After a huge fall off in credit consistent with the fall in nominal GDP, we are seeing credit stabilise at a lower level. Debt to GDP ratios may not be lower, but as GDP is lower, so too is credit in the system.  Yet there is a large difference between the haves and the have-nots, largely due to a difference in which banks received government largesse and which did not.

Bank analyst Don Coxe puts this in perspective for us:

A sustained U.S. economic recovery is unlikely until all banks, and not just the big institutions bailed out with government funds, start to recover from the effects of the financial crisis, according to longtime investment strategist Don Coxe.

Many banks that got funding from the government have seen their shares soar, while smaller, regional banks have not.

That’s a sign that investors believe the smaller banks are less well placed to participate in, and contribute to, the economic recovery, said the chairman of Coxe Advisors LLC in Chicago, who advises clients of the BMO Financial Group.

Think big banks – big business, small banks-smaller business.  In effect, the credit flow for large multinationals is now back to normal.  However, like consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are finding a tougher reception. Revolving credit lines are being cut and loans are harder to come by (one reason Warren Buffett and Goldman Sachs are stepping into this space in this crucial holiday season).

This is a case of supply and demand constraints. One the one hand, credit supply is constrained because regional financials are loaded down with bad debts and have not received the same measure of bailout money that big banks have.  On the other hand, SMEs are having to downsize and are demanding less credit.

"The thousands of regional U.S. banks on which an economic recovery depends have not participated in the sudden explosion of trading profits" of the biggest five U.S. banks, he said.

The state aid granted to large banks during the financial crisis has convinced investors the government will step in again in future to save the behemoths if needed. That has helped pull share prices back up from the 12-year lows hit in March.

By


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Zombie Community Banks

Zombie Community Banks

zombie banks, dead banks walkingCourtesy of Tom Lindmark at BUT THEN WHAT

With all the hoopla this week about the big banks repaying their TARP loans you would tend to think that the program is, if not winding down, then in a collect the interest and wait for repayment mode. If that’s the case, they you’re thinking if wrong.

The WSJ reports that the Treasury is busier than ever dolling out money to banks. This time they aren’t shoveling it out the door in chunks of billions of dollars, rather they’re spooning it out to the nation’s community banks.

In contrast to Wall Street firms like J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and American Express Co. that returned $68.25 billion in one day this month to escape TARP and all the strings that were attached, a steady stream of small banks still is lining up for government money.

Since May 31, 20 small banks have received a total of $164.1 million in taxpayer-funded capital, according to the Treasury’s latest available figures. Half of those banks got the money in the same week that 10 big financial institutions gave theirs back.

Analysts see no end in sight to the trend. The recession and borrowers are squeezing most of the 8,200 federally insured commercial banks and savings institutions in the U.S., so even a dollop of TARP funds could make a difference. Some banks are turning to the government to fill a void left by investors who are leery about pouring money into the sector, despite the rebound by bank stocks since early March.

Meanwhile, the rules and stigma of TARP that turned some executives such as J.P. Morgan Chairman and CEO James Dimon against the program are irrelevant to small institutions.

Their employees usually don’t fly on corporate jets or collect hefty bonuses that trigger outrage from taxpayers, customers and Congress. And curbs on dividend payments are a modest price to pay for greater assurance that the banks can plow ahead with their core mission to gather local deposits, lend them nearby and support local charities, some recent TARP recipients said.

Maybe I’m missing the point, but TARP always seemed to me to have evolved into a program to recapitalize big banks, in essence to create the fiction that they were properly capitalized and hope that the banks would be able to repay the funds through earnings and a benevolent…
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Zero Hedge

These International Borders Have Become "No Rights Zones"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

On June 15, 1215, King John sat in a field in Runnymede, England, surrounded by angry nobles.

His Barons - the big landowners throughout England - had rebelled and seized London, forcing King John to sign an agreement guaranteeing certain rights to the people of England... and restrictions of his power.

This agreement was called the Magna Carta. And it would become one of the most important documents in hist...



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Phil's Favorites

The Senate is set to approve it, but what exactly is the Trans Pacific Partnership?

 

The Senate is set to approve it, but what exactly is the Trans Pacific Partnership?

Courtesy of Pat Ranald, University of Sydney

These days it is called the TPP-11 or, more formally, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership.

It is what was left of the 12-nation Trans Pacific Partnership after President Donald Trump pulled out the US, after a decade of negotiation, in 2017.

Still in it are Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Japan, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam. It’ll cover 13% of the world’s economy rather than 30%.

What’s in it for us? ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities attempting breakout off 7-year support!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Its been a rough 7-years for Agriculture ETF (DBA) as it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows while declining 50% inside of falling channel (1).

The decline this year has it testing channel support of late, where a double bottom might be in play at (2).

The rally of the past couple of weeks has DBA attempting a breakout above falling resistance at (3), while momentum is very low and could be attempting to turn higher.

While DBA is attempting a breakout, yields and Commoditie...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday and Thursday finally brought some fireworks to a very complacent market.   The S&P 500 had not had a 1% move in 74 days until Wednesday’s drawdown.

Rising yields were nailed as the culprit but months of rallying eventually require some sort of shake out – whatever the catalyst.  Wednesday’s sell off was the worst day for the S&P 500 since February and the worst for the NASDAQ since June 2016.

The market losses are “a reaction from investors finally realizing we are in a higher interest-rate environment, and given the elevated level of stocks, market participants were likely looking for a reason to sell,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “Higher interest rates typically bring on tighter ...



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Insider Scoop

Carl Icahn Doubles Down On Dell Technologies: 'One Of The Best Opportunities I Have Ever Seen'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Barron's Picks And Pans: Apple, Dell, Netflix, Wells Fargo And More Jim Cramer Gives His Opinion On Mastercard, Dell Tec...

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Digital Currencies

A Wealth Management Point of View on Blockchain and Bitcoin

 

A Wealth Management Point of View on Blockchain and Bitcoin

Courtesy of 

I really had a great time discussing the blockchain, my Bitcoin Maximalism, fear and greed, the future of cryptocurrencies and more with the one and only Anthony Pompliano on his Off The Chain podcast. He’s super sharp and we went into so many great topics – I do regret the thing I said about ghosts and aliens though, that sounded dumb in hindsight.

I ...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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