Jobs Contract By 36,000; Unemployment Rate Steady At 9.7%; No Snow Effect
by ilene - March 5th, 2010 7:01 pm
Jobs Contract By 36,000; Unemployment Rate Steady At 9.7%; No Snow Effect
Courtesy of Mish
Today the BLS reported 36,000 job losses with the unemployment rate holding at 9.7%. Before diving into the numbers let’s analyze the snow job ahead of the report.
Speaking before Congress, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke harped about snow, warning policymakers will "to be careful about not overinterpreting" the upcoming data." In the wake of that warning, economists busily upped their projections for job losses in February, some by as much as 220,000 jobs.
I talked about that yesterday in Range of Snow Impact on Jobs: Negligible to 220,000; Have Your Snow Job Decoder Ring Handy?
Snow Job Decoding
Did 220,000 people not receive any pay for the period in question?
Color me skeptical.
In terms of the unemployment rate, the blizzards will not have an effect. In terms of the reported jobs number there will be an impact but the most likely impact is in the number of hours worked.
Regardless, expectations as to the importance of the blizzard range from negligible all the way to 220,000. Whatever the affect was, it will be over by next month although I have seen analysis that says the effects will last until May.
In today’s job report, the BLS chimed in about snow, confirming the above.
BLS Confirms Bernanke’s Snow Job
Effect of Severe Winter Storms on Employment Estimates
Major winter storms affected parts of the country during the February reference periods for the establishment and household surveys.
In the establishment survey, the reference period was the pay period including February 12th. In order for severe weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be off work for an entire pay period and not be paid for the time missed. About half of all workers in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semimonthly, or monthly pay period. Workers who received pay for any part of the reference pay period, even one hour, are counted in the February payroll employment figures.
While some persons may have been off payrolls during the survey reference period, some industries, such as those dealing with cleanup and repair activities, may have added workers.
In the household survey, the reference period was the calendar week of February 7-13. People who miss work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.