Posts Tagged ‘solar energy’

Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments

Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments
October 6, 2009

Featured Trades: (OBAMA), (FSLR), (SOLAR) 

1) If you wonder where I am on the evening of Thursday, October 15, I will be having dinner with Barrack Obama, President of the United States. I received the invitation to San Francisco’s exclusive Saint Francis Hotel to meet the Commander-in-Chief with 250 of the city’s “A-listers,” which I have reproduced below. Of course $30,400 for two is a bargain to sit down with the most powerful man in the world, but that doesn’t include another $10,000 for my date’s dress. I have been asked to arrive two hours early to provide for security screening. With my opinions plastered all over the Internet, that will no doubt involve a full proctologic exam. But hey, anything for some overcooked chicken.  Times are hard, and we all have to do our bit to stimulate the economy. Maybe I should go for a table of ten for only $150,000? Until then I shall be boning up on subjects I know are dear to the President’s heart to make chit chat, like playoffs for college football, or how he got stiffed in his Chicago Olympic bid. He could have made such a killing renting out his Hyde Park house that I visited last December (click here for story ), which would have been walking distance from many of the events! How much do you think I should  leave for a tip?
 

     Obama2.jpg picture by madhedge    
 
 
Obama5.jpg picture by madhedge 
 
 
2) Solar is about to become a big part of our lives, as it careens toward long sought profitability, and it will suit you to learn more about it. To get a good introduction to the industry, both through some good engineering statistics and some great pictures, then check out the September edition of National Geographic magazine by clicking here. Total world electricity demand today is 16 terawatts (16,000 megawatts), and that is expected to grow to 20 terawatts by 2020. Solar comes in two flavors, thermal and photovoltaic (PV). Thermal is the old dinosaur technology, with thousands of convex mirrors arrayed to heat piped oil, which is then used to power a conventional steam power plan, converting about 24% of the sun’s energy into electricity. The future is with photovoltaic


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Solar Panel Glut

Solar stock lovers, here are a few articles reporting a glut in solar panels likely to persist for years. - Ilene

Solar Panel Glut Will Scorch Small Players (CSIQ, FSLR, SPWRA)

solar panelsCourtesy of Lawrence Delevingne at Clusterstock

The predicted story of 2009 for solar — crushed demand leading to a major glut in panels — is playing out even worse than expected.

A new report from research firm DisplaySearch says solar panel production is up 56% this year versus last, while demand is down 17%.

This wild imbalance will clobber the small fish in the market.

Charles Annis, author of the DisplaySearch report, tells us to expect "rapid price declines, building inventories, lower profit margins, losses for many, and likely some industry consolidation."

It’s not all bad. "The current ‘Solar Cycle’ is severe due to changes in policy and the economy, but another boom will come and the industry will continue to grow and mature."

Stefan de Haan, senior analyst of photovoltaics at iSuppli says the over-supply is going to be monstrous. "Our actual numbers translate into a module oversupply of 90% this year. This is the peak of the module "glut". From 2010 on, the situation will ease due to adjusted production volumes and increased end-user demand."

So, who’s in trouble? iSuppli’s de Haan mentions Solon (one of the biggest European producers) and new polysilicon manufacturers using the "Siemens" process, many of them from China.

Climatewire points to to Advent Solar, DayStar Technologies and Blue Square Energy as "among the solar companies in the United States that are feeling the pinch and could be shaky."

But why are big fish like First Solar (FSLR), SunPower (SPWRA) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ) — who all turned in good second quarter financial results — doing well?

"In most cases, costs will be decisive," says de Haan. First Solar benefits from a cost advantage, SunPower has a better brand so it can command a premium, and "they benefit from the developing Californian market – small in absolute numbers, but growing significantly."

Adds Annis: "The PV supply chain is very broad based. The effects of the glut affect different companies quite differently. The companies you mention are all market leaders, are vertically integrated, benefit from scale of manufacturing and long term supply contracts. They have low costs per watt and even with the dramatic reduction in module pricing, costs…
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Phil's Favorites

Disney teams up with Secret Cinema - watching movies will never be the same again

 

Disney teams up with Secret Cinema – watching movies will never be the same again

Secret Cinema’s production of Moulin Rouge. Secret Cinema

Courtesy of Sarah Atkinson, King's College London and Helen W. Kennedy, University of Nottingham

Disney’s recent deal with the immersive experience company Secret Cinema signals a new era for the cinema industry. New film titles from the Disne...



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Zero Hedge

"The Markets Are Really Panicking": VIX Explodes, Markets Crash In Worst Week Since Lehman

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Friday's market performance has traditionally been the weakest, even during the meltup phase ahead of the recent coronacrash, and as such it will probably not come as a surprise that today's overnight rout which followed the biggest 6-day correction from a peak for the S&P on record...

... has accelerated only this time without even a casual attempt to buy the dip, with the S&P plunge accelerating, and briefly dipping below...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



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Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



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The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



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Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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ValueWalk

What US companies are saying about coronavirus impact

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the coronavirus outbreak coinciding with the U.S. earnings seasons, it is only normal to expect companies to talk about this deadly virus in their earnings conference calls. In fact, many major U.S. companies not only talked about coronavirus, but also warned about its potential impact on their financial numbers.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus impact: many US companies unclear

According to ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.