Posts Tagged ‘Stephen Schork’

2008 REDUX? SCHORK SAYS OIL COULD HIT $110 BY JUNE

Stephen Schork’s short oil, but acknowledges that it could go higher. For more, watch the video. – Ilene 

2008 REDUX? SCHORK SAYS OIL COULD HIT $110 BY JUNE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group, talks with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman about the oil market and outlook for prices.

Source: Bloomberg TV


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WHY NATURAL GAS IS SET TO REVERSE THE MASSIVE RALLY

WHY NATURAL GAS IS SET TO REVERSE THE MASSIVE RALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Analysis by Stephen Schork at the Schork Group:

 


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More On “The Less Bad Is Good” Mantra…….

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More On "The Less Bad Is Good" Mantra…….

Courtesy of Jan-Martin Feddersen of Immobilienblasen

The perfect fit to yesterdays post But Still Better Than Expected…….. ….

Paßt wie die Faust aufs Auge zum gestrigen Post But Still Better Than Expected……..
 

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Refining, the weakest link in the recovery Stephen Schork via FT Alphaville

Demand, not only for gasoline, but for other major products markets as well, is going the wrong way, i.e. from the top left to the bottom right on the charts. Thus, Big Oil is straining under the weight of poor margins.

It is now hard to reconcile these earnings reports, demand was lousy in the second quarter (and it not any better today). Yet, this market was being fed a fantastic lie back then… the less bad is good mantra.

Thus, whereas spot crude oil on the NYMEX finished the first quarter just below $50 a barrel (49.66) it finished the second quarter just below $70 (69.89). Crude oil rallied 40 percent as profits at the world’s largest oil companies were tumbling.

Why?

Because this market wanted to ignore the obvious and lull itself to sleep with silly pseudo-intellectual catchphrases… green shoots, crocuses, mustard seeds and this season’s rookie of the year… the second derivative.

Thus, while we were led to believe that demand for oil was rising in the second quarter, hence the justification for that 40 percent surge on the NYMEX, we now have the balance sheets from Exxon, Shell et al. that prove it was a lie.

Look at the screenshot of headlines we pasted on the top of today’s report. Profits for Big Oil are down as demand is at generational lows.

However, look at the very first headline, the NYMEX was higher yesterday because “… corporate earnings boost confidence…”

Huh?

According to this one article, demand for oil and therefore profits for oil companies are down, but the NYMEX rallied yesterday because Motorola (mobile phone maker) had a smaller than projected loss and Calphalon (cookware) and Paper Mate (writing instruments) had better than expected profits

. Bloomberg screenshot headlines

You really cannot make this up……

Das ist so absurd das man sich unweigerlich fragt ob wir schon wieder den 1. April haben…. :-)

 

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Zero Hedge

These International Borders Have Become "No Rights Zones"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

On June 15, 1215, King John sat in a field in Runnymede, England, surrounded by angry nobles.

His Barons - the big landowners throughout England - had rebelled and seized London, forcing King John to sign an agreement guaranteeing certain rights to the people of England... and restrictions of his power.

This agreement was called the Magna Carta. And it would become one of the most important documents in hist...



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Phil's Favorites

The Senate is set to approve it, but what exactly is the Trans Pacific Partnership?

 

The Senate is set to approve it, but what exactly is the Trans Pacific Partnership?

Courtesy of Pat Ranald, University of Sydney

These days it is called the TPP-11 or, more formally, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership.

It is what was left of the 12-nation Trans Pacific Partnership after President Donald Trump pulled out the US, after a decade of negotiation, in 2017.

Still in it are Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Japan, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam. It’ll cover 13% of the world’s economy rather than 30%.

What’s in it for us? ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities attempting breakout off 7-year support!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Its been a rough 7-years for Agriculture ETF (DBA) as it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows while declining 50% inside of falling channel (1).

The decline this year has it testing channel support of late, where a double bottom might be in play at (2).

The rally of the past couple of weeks has DBA attempting a breakout above falling resistance at (3), while momentum is very low and could be attempting to turn higher.

While DBA is attempting a breakout, yields and Commoditie...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday and Thursday finally brought some fireworks to a very complacent market.   The S&P 500 had not had a 1% move in 74 days until Wednesday’s drawdown.

Rising yields were nailed as the culprit but months of rallying eventually require some sort of shake out – whatever the catalyst.  Wednesday’s sell off was the worst day for the S&P 500 since February and the worst for the NASDAQ since June 2016.

The market losses are “a reaction from investors finally realizing we are in a higher interest-rate environment, and given the elevated level of stocks, market participants were likely looking for a reason to sell,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “Higher interest rates typically bring on tighter ...



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Insider Scoop

Carl Icahn Doubles Down On Dell Technologies: 'One Of The Best Opportunities I Have Ever Seen'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Barron's Picks And Pans: Apple, Dell, Netflix, Wells Fargo And More Jim Cramer Gives His Opinion On Mastercard, Dell Tec...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

A Wealth Management Point of View on Blockchain and Bitcoin

 

A Wealth Management Point of View on Blockchain and Bitcoin

Courtesy of 

I really had a great time discussing the blockchain, my Bitcoin Maximalism, fear and greed, the future of cryptocurrencies and more with the one and only Anthony Pompliano on his Off The Chain podcast. He’s super sharp and we went into so many great topics – I do regret the thing I said about ghosts and aliens though, that sounded dumb in hindsight.

I ...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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