Posts Tagged
‘swine flu’
by ilene - March 22nd, 2010 11:57 pm
Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet
As if TheStreet.com didn’t already have enough troubles with the SEC investigating their accounting, another Street veteran Doug Kass joins the pile fools who have tried to make prophetic claims regarding the stock market. (Nouriel Roubini is still my favorite.)
On August 26, 2009, Kass authoritatively proclaimed, “Markets top during times of enthusiasm. I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year.”
On September 30, 2009,
…
Tags: 7 months, banking crisis, benefit of the doubt, case in point, chutzpah, Citigroup, conviction, Doug Kass, fools, James Cramer, Lenny Dystra, men in black, mind eraser, new highs, rainy day, Real Money, Roubini, sixth sense, street veteran, swine flu, TheStreet.com, u s stock market
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by ilene - February 8th, 2010 1:54 pm
Swine flu has been moving away from the spotlight recently, leading commentators to suggest that the threat was exaggerated and has now passed. Dr. Henry Niman disagrees. As I’ve been routinely visiting Dr. Niman’s website for updates, I asked him what he thought of articles such as these in TIME and Huffington Post, and he replied that he had been writing a response. Here are his thoughts. – Ilene
Courtesy of Dr. Henry Niman, Recombinomics Commentary
The level of disinformation in the media and internet continues to grow. The latest disinformation campaign has now started calling the 2009 pandemic an epidemic. This follows disinformation on the end of the pandemic, which follows reports questioning the existence of the pandemic. This frequent and common disinformation is leading to serious confusion in the general population, which will lead to needless deaths by those who shun the pandemic vaccine and those infected by those who shun the vaccine.
The existence of the pandemic was an easy, but decidedly late, call. A flu pandemic is simply a novel strain that spreads worldwide. The detection of swine H1N1 in two children in southern California in March/April strongly suggested that the pandemic had begun. The children had no contact with swine or each other and were over 100 miles apart, indicating the detected infections represented thousands of cases in southern California, including symptomatic relatives and contacts. When the “mystery illness” that was hospitalizing and killing 100’s in Mexico was confirmed in April to be the same swine H1N1, it was clear that the pandemic had begun. The original phase 6 definition of sustained transmission of a novel strain of influenza had been met.
The swine H1N1 contained flu genes that had been circulating in swine since the 1990’s and most of the flu genes had been in swine since the 1930’s or earlier. Thus, the H1N1 was novel and the vast majority of the world’s population had no immunity, setting the stage for rapid spread worldwide. Although jumps of swine H1N1 to humans happen multiple times per year, prior jumps generally had a direct link to swine exposure and transmission was limited to family members of close contacts. The most extensive spread was in 1976 at Fort Dix in NJ where one soldier died and 200 were infected. However, the virus…
Tags: H1N1, pandemic, swine flu
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by ilene - January 12th, 2010 12:32 am
By Ilene
Previous series of swine flu updates by me here.
Courtesy of Dr. Henry Niman, Recombinomics Commentary
Recently released H1N1 HA sequences have significantly accelerated pandemic concerns. These sequences have either D225G, D225N, or both and produce a case fatality rate at or near 100% in many countries….
By the 100% fatality rate, Dr. Niman means that they are finding these changes in the tested fatal cases in some countries. Keep in mind, these are small numbers of cases. It does not mean that all cases with these changes prove fatal. It might be more clear to say a large portion of the fatal cases show these changes in the infecting viruses.
[the] transmission and expansion of these fatal sequences in eastern Europe, including Russia have increased concerns, as has the "low reactor" status as determined by Mill Hill for a tested Ukraine sequence.
Some of the earliest sequences with D225G were in the United States last spring and were generally mild. However, initial cases in the US were generally mild, which may have reflected low viral loads infecting a naïve population…
"Low reactors" status means that the virus is not triggering the immune response expected due to changes in the structure of certain viral proteins (here, the influenza hemagglutinin proteins). Immune responses target specific proteins and the target proteins’ structure is critical to the immune response. Not all changes in a protein will greatly reduce its immunogenicity (ability to stimulate the immune response) but certain changes will. The change from the wild-type (common) HA protein to the HA protein with the D225G marker appears to have this adverse effect--i.e., the altered viruses will not provoke the stronger immune response generated in response to the wild-type virus and/or the swine flu vaccine.
These observations are cause for concern, not alarm. The changes in the H1N1 virus are natural and predictable; Dr. Niman predicted these changes would occur.
There already was interest in position 225 for a number of reasons. D225N was in seasonal H3N2 and linked to the fixing [establishment of widespread] of adamantine resistance (S31N), while D225G was in 1918 and 1919 samples and linked to a change in receptor binding domain specificities which would target subsets of cells in the lung. In addition, the polymorphism [genetic change] was jumping from one genetic background to
…
Tags: D225G, D225N, Dr. Henry Niman, low reactor, pandemic, Recombinomics, swine flu, the WHO
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by ilene - January 5th, 2010 10:32 pm
Here’s the latest by Dr. Henry Niman. I’ve made a few helpful comments in red. – Ilene
Courtesy of Henry Niman, PhD
Recombinomics Commentary
January 5, 2010
The Refik Saydam National Public Health Agency has released 29 HA [hemagglutinin] sequences from Ankara, Turkey. Several were partial sequences, but 26 covered the receptor binding domain and 8 had D225E,… while one had D225N,…
My comment: D225 is the most common or wild-type receptor binding protein - the hemagglutinin (HA) protein – which enables the virus to bind to tissues in the respiratory tract of infected people.
A change in the amino acid in position 225 of the receptor binding domain (RBD) is symbolized by using the letter representing the new amino acid, e.g. "G" for glycine in "D225G." The marker D225G signifies that a glycine (G) is present in the 225 position, replacing the amino acid usually in this position, aspartic acid, or D (hence the wild-type marker is "D225"). Glutamic acid, E, and asparagine, N, are two other amino acids that have been found in this position in non-wild-type swine flu viruses.
The change in the receptor binding protein from D to G alters the protein’s preference for binding to human tissues. Viruses with the D225G marker bind in the lung tissue, rather than binding in the upper respiratory tract (nasal area and throat), the more typical target. This appears to result in more severe disesase which may trigger a "cytokine storm" reaction in the lungs. Whether substitution with "E" or "N" causes similar changes is not known. Theoretically, if the immune response is generated against the wild-type protein D225, viruses with D225G, D225E or D225N markers might avoid the immune system’s response.
[Back to Dr. Niman] The outcomes of these patients were not given but media reports have described a rapid in increase in H1N1 fatalities in Turkey. A large number of HA sequences with D225E has been published from Spain, and recently released GISAID sequences from Sweden and the UK also have D225E, including three fatal cases from Sweden. The prior reports of D225G and D225N associations with fatal cases has raised concerns that changes at position 225 could alter tissue tropism or aid in immune escape, leading to more severe and fatal cases.
In…
Tags: D225, D225E, D225G, D225N, flu virus, HA, hemagglutinin, influenza, lungs, receptor binding domain, swine flu
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by ilene - December 31st, 2009 1:58 pm
Watching and Waiting
Ukraine
Vaccines
Tamiflu Resistance
Dr. Niman vs. WHO, ECDC and CDC
by Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman at Recombinomics
Watching and Waiting
While the numbers of new cases of swine flu have been declining in many regions, including the United States, it is too early to know whether or not there will be subsequent waves of disease.
"Based on my experience with new diseases and the lessons learned from past pandemics, I think we should remain cautious and observe the evolution of the pandemic over the next six to 12 months before declaring victory," World Health Organization Director General Margaret Chan tells Swiss newspaper Le Temps. (World Health Official Says Swine Flu Still a Threat)
Although the WHO is remaining "cautious," changes in the virus’s genome that increase its virulence and resistance to Tamiflu are becoming more common. Dr. Henry Niman, expert in flu virus evolution, believes another wave of illnesses will occur in early 2010. In addition, he believes resistance to Tamiflu will become "fixed," similarly to how this genetic change evolved in the seasonal H1N1 virus. (See Flu Update: Tamiflu resistance and Ukraine update, and Efficacy of Roche’s Flu Drug Tamiflu In Doubt, by David Phillips.)
WHO: H1N1 swine flu pandemic will stick around for another year
The World Health Organization warned government health authorities to remain vigilant on the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, saying the virus could mutate before vaccines can help it dissipate.
The World Health Organization is confident that the H1N1 swine flu pandemic will be under control in a year’s time – however, WHO officials warned global governments to remain vigilant for any mutations in the troublesome bug.
Dr. Niman believes this wave will be more severe than the previous two--but not due to random mutations. Rather, this will result from the process of recombination. Due to recombination, increasingly greater transmission of aggressive variants (D225G, D225E and D225N) and Tamiflu-resistant viruses will occur.
Ukraine
I’ve reprinted two recent articles at Recombinomics, with my comments in blue.
The WHO Surprise on D225G / D225N H1N1 Fatalities, Recombinomics Commentary
After considering the current available virological, epidemiological and clinical findings and following discussions on an earlier draft with WHO and its European-based
…
Tags: CDC, Dr. Henry Niman, ECDC, genetic changes, H1N1, recombination, swine flu, tamiflu, WHO
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by ilene - December 30th, 2009 11:27 am
H1N1 Update: Watching and Waiting
by Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman at Recombinomics
Watching and Waiting
Although the numbers of new cases of swine flu have been declining in many regions, including the United States, it is too early to know whether or not there will be subsequent waves of disease.
"Based on my experience with new diseases and the lessons learned from past pandemics, I think we should remain cautious and observe the evolution of the pandemic over the next six to 12 months before declaring victory," World Health Organization Director General Margaret Chan tells Swiss newspaper Le Temps. (World Health Official Says Swine Flu Still a Threat)
Although the WHO is taking a cautious approach, changes in the virus’s genome that increase its virulence and resistance to Tamiflu are becoming more common. Dr. Henry Niman, expert in flu virus evolution, believes another wave of flu illnesses will occur in early 2010. In addition, he believes resistance to Tamiflu will become "fixed," similarly to how this genetic change evolved in the seasonal H1N1 virus. (See Flu Update: Tamiflu resistance and Ukraine update, and Efficacy of Roche’s Flu Drug Tamiflu In Doubt, by David Phillips.)
WHO: H1N1 swine flu pandemic will stick around for another year
The World Health Organization warned government health authorities to remain vigilant on the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, saying the virus could mutate before vaccines can help it dissipate.
The World Health Organization is confident that the H1N1 swine flu pandemic will be under control in a year’s time – however, WHO officials warned global governments to remain vigilant for any mutations in the troublesome bug.
Dr. Niman believes this wave will be more severe than the previous two--but not due to random mutations. Rather, this will result from the process of recombination. Due to recombination, increasingly greater transmission of aggressive variants (D225G, D225E and D225N) and Tamiflu-resistant viruses will occur.
Ukraine
I’ve reprinted two recent articles at Recombinomics, with my comments in blue.
The WHO Surprise on D225G / D225N H1N1 Fatalities, Recombinomics Commentary
After considering the current available virological, epidemiological and clinical findings and following discussions on an earlier draft with WHO and its European-based Collaborating Centre ECDC has come to a preliminary formulation namely that the G222D/N
…
Tags: D225G, D225N, H1N1 flu, mutation, recombination, swine flu, tamiflu, Ukraine
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by ilene - December 20th, 2009 12:52 pm
By Ilene
Part I: Tamiflu resistance
Part 2: Flu virus changes/Ukraine/update
Tamiflu (oseltamivir) has been a big seller this year, with global sales soaring 362% to $1.93 billion in the first nine months. Driven by the threats of a swine flu pandemic, governments have been stockpiling the drug to the tune of $1.32 billion. (See Efficacy of Roche’s Flu Drug Tamiflu In Doubt, David Phillips):
According to David Phillips:
Allegations have surfaced that Swiss drug maker Roche has misled governments and physicians alike on the efficacy of its popular drug Tamiflu in preventing complications, such as hospitalization from pneumonia or death, in otherwise healthy people afflicted with the flu — seasonal or the H1N1 (swine flu) version. If the company is unconvincing in refuting such claims, more than its reputation could be sullied.
Leveraging global concerns over avian and swine flu, Roche has seamlessly raised awareness of the purported need to treat the complications associated with the seasonal flu too. The company has successfully challenged conventional wisdom — that “rest and aspirin” be the preferred treatment option for seasonal flu — with marketing campaigns that resonate with reassuring efficacy claims for Tamiflu (oseltamivir)… [See Tamiflu media updates].
A scarcity of published data in the medical literature motivated the nonprofit research group Cochrane Collaboration to investigate — and verify — Tamiflu’s alleged efficacy claims, particularly on the drug’s effect on the risk of hospital admission and complications in otherwise healthy people with influenza. The Cochrane review and a linked investigation undertaken jointly by the British Medical Journal and the local Channel 4 News cast doubt on the efficacy and safety of Tamiflu — and also raises disturbing questions on the drug’s promotional and marketing activities condoned by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic.
Investigators disclosed that an often cited meta-analysis used as evidentiary support was based entirely on ten trials funded by Roche, only two of which were published in peer reviewed journals. The Cochrane reviewers could find no independently funded trials of Tamiflu for healthy adults. Troubling, too, former employees of the medical communcations company hired by Roche were alleged to have ghost written some of the manuscripts….
Continue reading Efficacy of Roche’s Flu Drug Tamiflu In Doubt here .
As noted…
Tags: CDC, pandemic, recombination, roche, swine flu, tamiflu, viral evolution
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by ilene - December 15th, 2009 10:25 am
The Shocked Investor picked up my latest article on swine flu and the emergence of tamiflu resistance, and connected the development with moves in "flu stocks." I’ll note that the current H1N1 vaccines should still be effective against tamiflu resistant viruses, but the injectible vaccines may not be very effective against viruses with receptor binding domain changes, represented by the D225G marker, or other changes in the 225 position. On another note, Dr. Henry Niman is predicting another wave of infections sometime this winter. Read more here. – Ilene
Courtesy of The Shocked Investor
We track all H1N1 companies live here. These companies had been up hundreds of percent earlier this year and have taken a beating recently, as we expected (and wrote about). This was the situation in October:
And this is the status today:
(CHIP was sold.) Note the declines since October.
You may receive technical analysis and alerts of these companies sent automatically to you, by entering the symbols in the Technical Trend Analysis Tool. Here is the current ROI:
Coincidentally with the drop of these H1N1 companies has been the news of Tamiflu resistance. Ilene, from Phil’s Stock World, has an update on H1N1, again speaking to Dr. Henry Niman. She discusses several timely topics which directly affect a couple of the companies above.
The Emergence of Tamiflu Resistance
The swine flu virus has been increasing showing changes leading to greater incidences of Tamiflu resistance, but this being downplayed by the CDC and WHO. The CDC recently issued this CDC report:
A total of 29 cases of oseltamivir resistant 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses have been identified in the United States since April 2009. In specimens collected since September 1, 2009, 19 cases have been identified in the United States, including three newly identified cases since last week. The proportion of oseltamivir-resistant 2009 H1N1 viruses does not represent the prevalence of oseltamivir-resistant 2009 H1N1 in the U.S. Most cases were tested because drug resistance was suspected. All tested viruses retain their sensitivity to the neuraminidase inhibitor zanamivir. Of the 29 total cases identified, 19 patients had documented exposure to oseltamivir through either treatment or chemoprophylaxis, eight patients are under investigation to determine exposure to oseltamivir, and two patients had no
…
Tags: swine flu, tamiflu resistance
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by ilene - December 14th, 2009 12:52 pm
By Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman
Background
Dr. Henry Niman heads the research company Recombinomics Inc. Recombinomics has a small group of researchers who analyze the sequence data from viral samples isolated from patients diagnosed with swine flu. Its website is a terrific place to find the newest information available.
Dr. Niman has kindly been answering my questions regarding the H1N1 virus, its evolution, and the implications regarding the spread of disease. Because the terminology may be unfamiliar, a brief introduction may be helpful towards better understanding both the H1N1 virus and the swine flu disease.
Recombination
Flu viruses, including the H1N1 varieties, are known for quickly changing genetically. Recombination is the driver of rapid molecular evolution, a process whereby small bits of genetic information pass between viruses so a virus may quickly acquire a genetic variation that has previously evolved and already exists in the viral reservoir (the pool of viruses circulating in a population). Unlike sporadic mutations, recombination reflects the acquisition of genetic material that has withstood the Darwinian test of time. Compared to sporadic mutation, recombination is a quicker, non-random mechanism for genetic change.
Changes in the H1N1 viral genome are natural. The viral reservoir consists of wild-type viruses (the predominant viruses) and low levels of variants carrying a variety of different sequences called “polymorphisms.” While recombination is not the currently favored theory regarding how flu viruses evolve, Dr. Niman believes it is the correct theory. The theory of recombination as a mechanism for genetic change has led to accurate predictions about how the flu virus would evolve as infection rates increase. As the size of the viral reservoir continues to expand, viruses with genetic differences, “polymorphisms,” become more evident.
Ukraine Outbreak
The outbreak in Ukraine was initially described in many media reports as a new lung-blackening “mystery disease,” leading to many false and misleading Internet stories. According to Dr. Niman, it was clear from the start that H1N1 was killing an unusually high number of previously healthy young adults… (See Flu News: D225G Follow-up)
Dr. Niman wrote a number of commentaries on the rising death toll and the need to make the sequences public. He predicted the deaths would be associated with a receptor binding domain change in the wild-type H1N1 virus (the predominant virus) to…
Tags: CDC, D225G, recombination, swine flu, tamiflu resistance, Ukraine outbreak, variant flu virus, WHO, wild-type flu viruses
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by ilene - December 11th, 2009 11:35 pm
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By Alice Park, courtesy of
TIME Since early November, cases of H1N1 have continued to decline nationwide, and scientists keeping track of the numbers say that as pandemics go, 2009 H1N1 may turn out to be a mild one — at least for the time being.
The question now on health officials’ minds is: Will there be a second wave of cases in the new year? The answer depends on whom you ask. "We took an informal poll of about a dozen of some of the world’s leading experts in influenza," Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), told reporters recently. "About half of them said, Yes, we think it’s likely that we’ll have another surge in cases. About half said, No, we think it’s not likely. And one said, Flip a coin."
It is an accurate reflection of how unpredictable the influenza virus can be. Although flu activity has been waning for the third week in a row, health officials warn that there are still four to five months left in the official influenza season, plenty of time for the virus to make its rounds and find new hosts. "The story of pandemics, and the story of H1N1 in general, is the story of persistent uncertainty where we never quite know what we are going to get or when," says Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health.
How severe the current H1N1 pandemic seems depends on what you use as a measuring stick. Compared with previous pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 20 million people and infected up to 40% of the world’s population, or even the far less deadly 1957 and 1968 bouts with a strain of H1N1 influenza similar to the 2009 strain, things don’t seem as bad this time around. Fewer people are getting severely ill when infected, and fewer have died or required hospitalization from the flu than in previous pandemics.
Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health, and his colleagues studied the course of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic last spring in two cities — New York and Minneapolis — and determined that 0.048% of people who developed symptoms of H1N1 died, and 1.44% required hospitalization. Based…
Tags: CDC, death rate, H1N1, health officials, hospitalization rate, infection rate, second wave, swine flu, vaccine
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site