Posts Tagged ‘SWM’

October Overview – When the Goblins Come Home to Roost

Rollercoaster monksWhat a crazy month we had! 

The Dow began the month of October at 9,712 and finished the month of October at EXACTLY 9,712.  Now I don't want to say the market is manipulated but…  No, I've got nothing, there are no buts – the market is totally manipulated!  Either that or you believe that the random outcome of tens of millions of traders around the globe trading hundreds of billions of shares of stock would just so happen to begin and end the month within .50 after going as low as 9,378.77 (on the 5th) and as high as 10,157.94 (on the 21st).  So that is literally a 1 out of the 779-point swing coincidence to hit that 9,712 nail on the head

At PSW we couldn't be happier about this frankly.  As I often say to members:  We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we can figure out HOW the game is rigged so we can play along.  We were bearish in our September 27th Wrap-Up when I predicted that Earnings season would bring about a "Return to Fundamentals."  We targeted retrace moves of Dow 9,512, S&P 1,020, Nasdaq  2,030, NYSE 9,496 and Russell 556 – all of which we hit the following Friday.

68017.strip.sunday

That week I highlighted my fundamental market concerns and Monday (9/28) my topic was "6 Unemployed People Per Available Job," Tuesday I said "Consumer Confidence is Key," Wednesday we caught the turn perfectly as I predicted "End of Quarter, End of Pump," and Thursday, October 1st was the day that "REIT's Turned Rotten" – which was something we had been playing for during the September rally so we were thrilled with what is NOW the 2nd worst down day of the month.  That was the day GS decided to agree with me that REITs were over-valued and gave us a signal that the Gang of 12 were no longer all on the same page.  Friday, the 2nd, we were back to looking at the Jobs numbers when I asked "Is Anybody Working for the Weekend."

We could not have been more pleased with what was the worst week in the market…
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Weekend Reading – Looking for Green Shoots

I've been beefing up our bullish plays on the Watch List.

If we're going to get more bullish I thought it would be a good time to look for some bullish premises so we don't feel totally silly paying 20-year high p/e's for the S&P 500.  Obviously, our main hope is that the stocks we buy will grow into their earnings so the next month's worth of reports will be key.  The bar for corporate earnings is still set at very easy to beat levels yet, like this limbo-playing child, when they announce their beats of very low expectations we're going to get all excited and tell them how great they are doing.

The problem is, these are not kids who we hope may grow up one day to be President or CEOs of major companies. these ARE CEOs of major companies and they are being paid top salaries for top performance and we, the stock purchasing public, are paying top dollar for what should be SPECTACULAR performance, not beating 75% off last year's earnings by a penny! 

When I am being asked to buy IBM back at it's all-time high or AMZN or BIDU or AM, PALM, NFLX, PCLN, URBN, UHS, CERN, CREE, GMCR, CY, SWM, TRLG, BKE, etc – then their performance better look like this:  

 

Nothing against those particular companies, any individual company can be exceptional and beat the market, but - Are the companies we're buying really doing exceptional things or are have we just developed such ridiculously low expectations that we have been psychologically conditioned (and Wall Street firms employ armies of behavioral psychologists for a reason) to treat these stocks and the CEOs who run them like our children?  If your child was the child in the above picture and I asked you for $20 to see her limbo show – you might pay it.  If it's not your child though, would you even consider making an afternoon of it?  No, of course not, for good money you expect to see the cool fire guy at the top of his game and that is what you should expect from companies trading at or near all-time highs – NO LESS!

I love President Obama but he was just given a Nobel Peace Prize simply for not being President Bush – low expectations!  On Sept 17th, PALM announced…
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Phil's Favorites

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

 

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

Shutterstock/David Sandron

Courtesy of Matthew Shillito, University of Liverpool

Some cryptocurrencies have always been fairly volatile, with values soaring or plunging within a short space of time. So for the more cautious investor, “stablecoins” were considered the sensible place to go. As the name implies, they are designed to be a steadier and safer bet.

At the moment though, that stability is proving hard to find. The value of o...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

 

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

Shutterstock/David Sandron

Courtesy of Matthew Shillito, University of Liverpool

Some cryptocurrencies have always been fairly volatile, with values soaring or plunging within a short space of time. So for the more cautious investor, “stablecoins” were considered the sensible place to go. As the name implies, they are designed to be a steadier and safer bet.

At the moment though, that stability is proving hard to find. The value of o...



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Zero Hedge

Tiger Global Sells, Liquidates Billions: Here Is Its Full Portfolio As Of March 31

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Heading into today's 13F filing deadline for the first quarter, we said that it would be the first time that investors actually cared about (and read through) at least some of these filings in years...

Monday may be the first time in years when people actually read through 13F filings

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2022

... and none more so than the 13F belonging to the biggest tech-focused fund of them all, Tiger Global, which having accumulated tens of billions in the past two decades, has gotten destroyed in the past few months, losing $17 billion in 2022, and which according ...



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ValueWalk

Dodge Construction Network Presents The 2022 OUTLOOK Mid-Year Forecast At Its Construction OUTLOOK Conference

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Four regional keynote sessions to update the initial 2022 forecast, and how construction continues to evolve post-COVID

HAMILTON, NJ — May X, 2022 — Dodge Construction Network today announced it will conduct its Construction Industry OUTLOOK Mid-Year Update. The webinar will be segmented by region — west, northeast, midwest and south.

Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

...

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Chart School

Powell doing a Volker to crush inflation, yeah right!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

In 1979, Volker was equal to Goliath as he had a good chance of crushing inflation, today the debt Goliath is massive.

In the video below David Rosenberg explains the FED is on a 'Volker' mission to crush inflation no matter what happens to risk on assets like stocks.

David Rosenberg thinking is challenged when ask about the current US debt levels, as Paul Volker did say that he could not have crushed inflation with the debt levels of today.  David Rosenberg simply says the FED is going to hike no matter what, until something very serious breaks.

The question remains will something break in the markets after 1%, 1.5% or 2% hikes. No one knows. But as the US debt to GDP% is over 120% this suggests s...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Microstrategy Stock Crash Gets Crypto Bulls Attention, Key Support Test In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Microstrategy is a tech company selling its enterprise software solutions and analytics (platform)… but it is better known for something else…

It’s CEO Michael Saylor is a bitcoin whale. And he has been investing significant amounts of the companies reserves in Bitcoin. He even secured a term loan using bitcoin as collateral.

So Microstrategy is a bitcoin play as much as anything else. Well, bitcoin and the cryptocurrency space has been hit hard of late, with Bitcoin falling under $30K and other crypto coins tanking.

This is also illustrated through today’s “monthly” chart of ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

China's COVID crisis and the dilemma facing its leaders, by experts who have monitored it since the Wuhan outbreak

 

China’s COVID crisis and the dilemma facing its leaders, by experts who have monitored it since the Wuhan outbreak

A Shanghai refuse worker shows the strain of the month-long COVID lockdown. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Jane Duckett, University of Glasgow; Meixuan Chen, University of Glasgow, and William Wang, ...



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Politics

5 justices, all confirmed by senators representing a minority of voters, appear willing to overturn Roe v. Wade

 

5 justices, all confirmed by senators representing a minority of voters, appear willing to overturn Roe v. Wade

An unscalable fence around the U.S. Supreme Court, on May 7, 2022, set up in response to protests against the possible overruling of Roe v. Wade. Jose Luis Magana / AFP/Getty Images

Courtesy of Kevin J. McMahon, Trinity College

If the leaked Supreme Court decision on abortion is to be believed, five justices have ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.